Peak Oil for Real?????

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from Pekelo:



There is very little extra (shoe-in) capacity left, the world could probably go up 2-3 mpbd higher if needed, but pretty much that's it, we are at the zenith of the curve. Probably it is going to take a few years, when it becomes obvious for everybody, but we will never reach 90 mbpd....

No way. With the recent price spikes in oil came the incentive to figure out new ways to exploit previously inaccessible oil deposits.

<b>Ultra-deepwater offshore drilling.</b> Just a few years ago, that was science-fiction. There was no such thing as ultra-deepwater drilling... but there is now, thanks to recent scientific advances spurned on by the oil price spike.

Ethanol is a giant scam, and the 'peak oil' scare of this decade will belong right on the same history book page as last decade's laughable 'Y2K' scare. All oil drilling to date has been done on or near land- a small slice of the globe's total area. Whenever more oil is needed, mankind will just move out a bit deeper into the oceans to get it.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

No way. With the recent price spikes in oil came the incentive to figure out new ways to exploit previously inaccessible oil deposits.

<b>Ultra-deepwater offshore drilling.</b>

RM, seriously, I expected more from you....

"Chevron, Devon Energy and Statoil ASA, the Norwegian oil giant, reported that they had found 3 billion to 15 billion barrels in several fields 175 miles offshore, 30,000 feet below the gulf’s surface, "

So it will last exactly 1-6 months with current consumption of the world. Just because it is offshore, it will still peak and be depleted....

 

[Vishnu]

two prominent hedge funds that believe in peak oil theory are:

<a href="http://stockpickr.com/members/port/T-Boone-Pickens-BP-Capital/

">T. Boone Pickens' hedge fund</a>.

<a href="http://stockpickr.com/members/port/Clarium-Capital/">Clarium Capital</a>, run by PayPal founder Peter Thiel.

You can click on the above links to see how they play peak oil theory and what stocks they own.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Report #: DOE/EIA-0484(2006)
Release Date: June 2006
Next Release Date: June 2007

Chapter 3: World Oil Markets
In the IEO2006 reference case, world oil demand increases by 47 percent from 2003 to 2030. Non-OECD Asia, including China and India, accounts for 43 percent of the increase.

"In the IEO2006 reference case, world oil demand grows from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030."

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html

So, we are using 68,000,000 barrels of oil per day now, globally, and this will roughly double within 23 years.

 

[Pekelo]

Yes, demand WOULD increase, except there is no shoe-in capacity left. Maybe 2-3 mbpd, or 5 at max and that is it.

For every 1 barrel discovered we are using up 4 (or 9, depending on whom you believe) barrels. Do the math...

Pickens said and I agree with him, that we will NEVER surpass 90 mbpd... So get yourself ready... It is really just simple math and knowing of facts...

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

world oil demand grows from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030."[/i]

So, we are using 68,000,000 barrels of oil per day now, globally, and this will roughly double within 23 years. [/B]

Let me see: Going from 80 to 118 is roughly double for you.

It is roughly 50% for me, but I only have 3rd grade education, so I wouldn't know....

As I said, it takes simple math only...

P.S.: Also, currently we are using 82-83 mbpd, not 68.....
The peak so far was at 85 back in 2005 December...

 

[jficquette]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

No way. With the recent price spikes in oil came the incentive to figure out new ways to exploit previously inaccessible oil deposits.

<b>Ultra-deepwater offshore drilling.</b> Just a few years ago, that was science-fiction. There was no such thing as ultra-deepwater drilling... but there is now, thanks to recent scientific advances spurned on by the oil price spike.

Ethanol is a giant scam, and the 'peak oil' scare of this decade will belong right on the same history book page as last decade's laughable 'Y2K' scare. All oil drilling to date has been done on or near land- a small slice of the globe's total area. Whenever more oil is needed, mankind will just move out a bit deeper into the oceans to get it.

Plus the processes that made the oil we have used have not stopped. Oil is constantly being made in the Earth's crust.

The Crust is about 30 miles deep on average. There is tons of Oil that has not been discovered.

We will quit using Oil long before it runs out.

John

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from Pekelo:

Let me see: Going from 80 to 118 is roughly double for you.

It is roughly 50% for me, but I only have 3rd grade education, so I wouldn't know....

As I said, it takes simple math only...

P.S.: Also, currently we are using 82-83 mbpd, not 68.....
The peak so far was at 85 back in 2005 December...

68 x 2 = 136 million

We are currently using 68 million barrels per day, globally.

We will be using 118 million within 23 years, according to that source. So, it's a lot more than a 50% increase.

A 50% increase would be 68 million x 1.5 and would = 102 million barrels.

So, 118 isn't quite doubling but it's a 74% increase, not a 50% increase.

 

[infolode]

Quote from Pekelo:

Yes, demand WOULD increase, except there is no shoe-in capacity left. Maybe 2-3 mbpd, or 5 at max and that is it.

For every 1 barrel discovered we are using up 4 (or 9, depending on whom you believe) barrels. Do the math...

Pickens said and I agree with him, that we will NEVER surpass 90 mbpd... So get yourself ready... It is really just simple math and knowing of facts...

4 minute mile

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:


So, 118 isn't quite doubling but it's a 74% increase, not a 50% increase.

You gave 2 contradictory datas in your post. First said we used 80 mbpd in 2003, then you said we use today 68.

The first one was the correct and today we use 82 or so.A target of 118 would give a 50% increase, end of story...