Peak Oil Doom and Gloom, or maybe not...

Quote from Mvic:

and that the consequences of peak oil will be as devastating as the peak oil doom and gloomers expect.
More...

1. About productivity and technological breakthourgh:

I can actually use it as a contrarian argument. In spite of all the technological advantages, sure we can suck up more oil then ever before, but we can not suck up more than it is there. And the bell curve is gonna be hit at EVERY oilwell, no matter what.
Also please note that no matter how every country is trying they are hitting their plateau one by one. They are peaking...
Hell, England just went to be a net oil importer!!!

2. Scientific freedom is screwed when simple politics doesn't allow drilling or laws prohibit advances (stem cell is a good example)

3. There is nothing to disagree about lifespan, read the news. Today's American kids' expected lifespan is shorter than their parents'.

4. There is plenty of innovation in oildrilling and STILL less oil. You can not suck up more then there is to start with....

5. So far in America we haven't been able to overcome a bunch of oilmen, but I appreciate your optimism.

6. I don't expect a worldwide hiatus in technological advance, but as I mentioned before, oil is a unique commodity and it is a geological, economical and political issue too, not just technological.

7. As for the quoted sentence, peak oil theory doesn't directly address the alternatives issue. Of course it comes up, but it is not part of peak oil theory...
 
Quote from Mvic:
Its not that I don't buy the idea of peak oil, its just that I don't buy the assumptions that there will not be an alternative (s)
More...

I don't know why this missconception ALWAYS comes up with peak oil about alternatives, so let's use an analogy, peak beer: :eek:

Let's say a bunch of ETers visits an uninhabited island in a couple of small boats to party. We bring our own beverages because there is nothing on the island, but palmtrees and naked ladies. So far are you with me? Good.

Now let's suppose that Surf, whom we trusted with supplying the beer brought only 10 kegs and everybody else brought something else, like wine, hard liquor,etc.

Since we have a limited supply of beer as soon as we start to party (continuous consumption) it is pretty easy to see that sooner rather than later, we will run out of beer. It doesn't really help if we drink slower (as long as we keep drinking) or that there are alternatives like wine and hard liquor, because we want beer! It also doesn't help us that there are plenty of beer around the world in other places, because for that party, it is impractical and very economical to go and get some more.
Now we can invent all kind of ways to get the last drop of beer out of the kegs, but the bottomline is, that we will run out. And closer we get to the bottom, the harder it is to pump out the rest.

P.S.: Please note that just like in real life, in the analogy the alternatives are also limited resources, and eventually they will run out too.

Most people don't know that coal mining peaked in the USA in calorie units. Although in absolute numbers (weight) we still mine more and more coal, but this coal has less energy value thus the allover energy of mined coal has already peaked... :eek:
 
I've read a wonderful thread probably about 3-4 years ago here on elite, when oil was like 30 ish.. the guy did a really good job convincing me that oil is good l/t hold :) anybody that has a theory about doom and gloom should take the time to find the thread (sorry tried to look but got impatient). that thread really put things in perspective..

i think he-3 reactors, while might be possible one day, i think we are more than 50 years away from that.. to build a "simple" nuclear reactor takes 10 -15 years in our world today, and i would assume that He-3 reactor would not take any less. so if know how is 20 year away then the pic is clear.

anyway, fact that he overlooked, and what i think will make a difference in the future is that we can "grow" our own "oil".

by my back of the envelope calculation 1 acre of productive farmland can produce on average about 400 kg of diesel per year plus remains are great feed for livestock (1 ton per ha).

if you search through the news most of the biggest l/t investor types are heavily invested or investing in farmland all over the world. EU has law that by 2010 or whatever 5% of all oil used should come from alternate sources i.e. rapeseed, corn, wheat etc..

anyway, a couple of years ago, when i was in the market for a week-end car, i bought a real gas guzzler b/c i think it will eventually be too expensive to have :)

MK
 
my thread did nto give to omuch info on the peak oil thread.

basically the guy dud an excel spreadsheet on how many nuclear power plants, wind turbines it would take to replace oil. he forecasted oil demand growth and supply growth yada yada... it was a big thread.. anyway, if someone has the patience and will find it, please notify me where i can find it, as i would love to review it again.

mk
 
Quote from mkmps:

my thread did nto give to omuch info on the peak oil thread.

basically the guy dud an excel spreadsheet on how many nuclear power plants, wind turbines it would take to replace oil. he forecasted oil demand growth and supply growth yada yada... it was a big thread.. anyway, if someone has the patience and will find it, please notify me where i can find it, as i would love to review it again.

mk
More...

I read somewhere (don't remember where) that it would take 3500+ nuclear powerplants to power the US alone. Mind you, this is not 'replacing oil', just replacing conventional power plants.

Another piece of info I came across said that we would have to cover all of the continental US with solar panels to produce enough electricity...again, don't remember where this came from :(

So, in short - no credibility, but sounds scary enough :D
 
If you want to see intermediate term future looks like for the US ---- just take a trip to europe

notice the size of the vehicles
and the price per liter --- yes liter of gas
 
Quote from BostonKiller:

I read somewhere (don't remember where) that it would take 3500+ nuclear powerplants to power the US alone. Mind you, this is not 'replacing oil', just replacing conventional power plants.

Another piece of info I came across said that we would have to cover all of the continental US with solar panels to produce enough electricity...again, don't remember where this came from :(

So, in short - no credibility, but sounds scary enough :D
More...


NLR Market Vectors Global Nuclear Energy ETF
 
I wonder if, in the 1800's anyone was concerned they were gonna run out of whale oil for lamps due to the finite supply of whales, and the number that were being harvested.......
 
Are all the talking heads tonight going to be calling a top in oil, or do they come out bullish than ever and say oil is headed to 100. Reading a few articles today suggest oil may have put in a top, of course thats after it fell nearly 10%.

:p :p :p
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top