PEAK OIL - A myth???

[TraderZones]

Quote from thesharpone:

that is not a correct way to look at it, why? because if oil prices go up so will the cost of new technology. so much of our lives is affected by oil in one way or another, so how can the increase in oil prices not increase the cost of technology.

I see no support or defense of this statement. As competition ramps up, then prices may rise or fall. Currently for example, there is a shortage in wind power manufacturing. But how long will that last? Everyone from the Americans to the Chinese will start ramping up production. Wave energy, solar and everything else will increasingly be manufactured. Over time, prices will likely drop

this is not a problem to be solved when the crisis hits, it should be solved way before

Agreed. Thousands of small to large startups and other companies worldwide are already pounding away at new means of extraction, alternative energy sources, and dozens of other things.

Even things like trash to steam, using the latent energy stored in the organic parts of sewage are being explored. Recently, NYC is installing turbines to capture the undersea energy from the Hudson river. They are even looking at the power available Between fresh and salt water in the Hudson.

 

[Martin Gale]

http://business.iafrica.com/news/306952.htm

OIL
Doomsday scenario for oil
Michael Hamlyn
Tue, 18 Mar 2008

A gloomy forecast about the future of the oil industry — looking forward to a possible Doomsday within a very few years — was given to the Sub-Saharan oil, gas and petrochemical conference in Cape Town on Tuesday.

Chris Skrebowski, a researcher for the Energy Institute in Britain, told delegates that the oil supply will peak in 2011 or 2012 at around 93 million barrels a day, that oil supply in international trade will peak earlier than the oil production peak, and he forecast: "There will be supply shortfalls in winter before peak."

Skrebowski said that latest BP statistics showed that peak is already happening in some regions. "OECD production peaked in 1997 and has now declined by 2.2 million barrels a day (10.4 percent)," he said.

"Non-Opec, non-former Soviet Union production peaked in 2002, and has now declined by 771 000 barrels a day (2.15 percent). North America/Mexico peaked in 1997. North Sea — UK/Norway/Denmark peaked in 2000 and has now declined by 1.6 million barrels a day (25.4 percent)."

Producers are in decline

The figures show, he said, that around 28 significant producers are in decline, and that about 35 percent of global production comes from the decliners. Once that figure reaches 51 percent "we reach global peak oil", he said.

Peak oil will be earlier than most expect, Skrebowski told delegates. And he explained that global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.

And he cited eight key pieces of evidence that we are close to peak: a falling discovery rate; few large discoveries; ever more countries in sustained depletion; companies struggling to hold production; non-geologic threats to future oil supply; the current lack of incremental flows; few countries with real growth potential; the age of the largest fields; and sustained high oil prices

"The oil companies are already struggling to hold production," he said. "In the third quarter of 2007, only Total recorded oil production gains. For the last 12 quarters oil production has drifted down for the five super-majors; has flat-lined for the 10 largest quoted companies and has flat-lined for the 24 largest quoted companies. Quoted companies' share of production is now declining, notably for the super-majors."

Non-geologic threats to oil supply

The non-geologic threats to future oil supply flows include resource nationalism in Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, with perhaps more to follow; civil insurrection in Nigeria and Sudan; and cost inflation, ageing infrastructure, lack of skilled people, refinery constraints.

"How likely is improvement in any of these?" he asked. And he wondered: "Who will cap or ration production first?"

The world's biggest oilfields are old, tired and fading, he said. Of the 120 largest fields, 50 are in decline, 44 not in decline, 12 unclear and seven are undeveloped. The average age of the giants is 42 years, but the 120 largest fields give 50 percent of total production and contain two-thirds of reserves.