PCLN Earnings - 1080/1100/1120 Call Fly - Paper Trade

Quote from FXforex:

That's odd. The 1120 calls were higher than the 1100 calls, thinking Yahoo quotes were wrong I also checked Nasdaq and got the same numbers. That can't be right.


Nov8 weekly calls
  • 1080 daily high $5.00
  • 1100 daily high $1.64
  • 1120 daily high $2.54
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Yeah. Depends on where the stock was when you quoted it. Regardless, the entire debit of that trade was gone by today's close.
 
Quote from FXforex:
PCLN Earnings - 1080/1100/1120 Call Fly
  • Buy 1 PCLN Nov8 2013 1080 call @ $14.80
  • Sell 2 PCLN Nov8 2013 1100 calls @ $8.50 ($17.00 credit)
  • Buy 1 PCLN Nov8 2013 1120 call @ $5.30
  • Maximum loss $310.00
  • Maximum gain $2,000.00 - $310.00 = $1690.00
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Actual move: $1023 - $1,073 $50 (4.9%)
Expected move: $1023 - $1,100 $77 (7.7%)
 
Quote from Doobs789:

And your fly is now worthless.

Are you basing this trade on some sort of directional edge? Or merely trying to maximize your risk:reward? Either way, it's a binary wager.
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A butterfly isn't a binary wager because you have a range within two breakeven points where the price must exceed so that you can earn full profit.

If the stock closes beyond either your high or low breakeven points you'll earn a limited profit, while if it closes at or near the middle strike you will sustain a loss.

A binary wager is either-or, meaning it would hit a specific price or not, and if it does you get your full profit. With a butterfly you won't get full profit unless the stock passes your b/e points by a good margin (or stays as close to the midpoint between them if you're doing a short butterfly).
 
Quote from Safilo:

A butterfly isn't a binary wager because you have a range within two breakeven points where the price must exceed so that you can earn full profit.

If the stock closes beyond either your high or low breakeven points you'll earn a limited profit, while if it closes at or near the middle strike you will sustain a loss.

A binary wager is either-or, meaning it would hit a specific price or not, and if it does you get your full profit. With a butterfly you won't get full profit unless the stock passes your b/e points by a good margin (or stays as close to the midpoint between them if you're doing a short butterfly).
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I am not stating that a butterfly spread is a binary wager. I am saying that placing a directional bet on a stock prior to it's earnings report is (assuming no insider info).

Also, your explanation of butterfly gains/losses is flawed.
 
Quote from FXforex:

Actual move: $1023 - $1,073 $50 (4.9%)
Expected move: $1023 - $1,100 $77 (7.7%)
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You are correct in that the stock's implied move was greater than realized. Trading a fly in this situation isn't a bad idea, but I would have structured it differently.

First, I would have gone with a later expiry (a few weeks to 1 or 2 months out). That way you can reduce your -gamma position (you won't earn as much on vol, but you'll reduce your delta risk). If your fly didn't expire a day after the report, you would have had a chance for the stock to touch your neutral strike (1100).

Additionally, I would have spaced the strikes wider (greater than the value of the atm straddle).

This structure will earn less if you are dead right the next day, but will also still hold-up well if you are wrong.
 
Quote from Doobs789:

I am not stating that a butterfly spread is a binary wager.
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Right...

Quote from Doobs789:

Either way, it's a binary wager.
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LOL

I am saying that placing a directional bet on a stock prior to it's earnings report is (assuming no insider info).
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Butterfly spreads are neutral - that's their point. You can profit if the stock stays still or goes in EITHER direction. If you think the stock is going to go hard one way or the other you'd be better off with a simple two strike spread or long call/put.

Also, your explanation of butterfly gains/losses is flawed.
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No it wasn't. Your brain is flawed.
 
Quote from Safilo:

Right...



LOL



Butterfly spreads are neutral - that's their point. You can profit if the stock stays still or goes in EITHER direction. If you think the stock is going to go hard one way or the other you'd be better off with a simple two strike spread or long call/put.



No it wasn't. Your brain is flawed.
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Alright, man. No point in getting into an argument.

Also, a butterfly can be bearish/neutral/bullish depending on strike selection.
 
Quote from Safilo:


Butterfly spreads are neutral - that's their point. You can profit if the stock stays still or goes in EITHER direction. If you think the stock is going to go hard one way or the other you'd be better off with a simple two strike spread or long call/put.



[/B]
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only a fly AT the money is neutral. When it is structured OTM then its also directional.
 
Quote from Safilo:

Right...



LOL



Butterfly spreads are neutral - that's their point. You can profit if the stock stays still or goes in EITHER direction. If you think the stock is going to go hard one way or the other you'd be better off with a simple two strike spread or long call/put.



No it wasn't. Your brain is flawed.
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You are so far out of your depth that it's laughable. Was the OP's fly neutral? wheeeeeeee
 
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