Vote and make comments on the following cases with respect to Payroll numbers: Four cases: 1. stocks up, dollar down ; 2. Stock up, dollar down, 3. Stocks down, dollar up, and 4. Stock down, dollar down.
Payroll Numbers and Trading
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The dollar is coming into very strong support right now. My guess would be that there will be at least one bounce and possibly a consolidation for awhile near support. Ultimately I don't see anything on the horizon that would reverse the dollars intermediate trend, consequently I would expect support to eventually, likely after the November election*, break down and the dollar move down further still. The dollar will be vigorously defended at current levels but that defense will have to battle further downward pressure put on by Fed and Treasury policy. Talk of a new round of stimulus and extension of unemployment benefits do not strengthen the dollar.
If congress acts with legislation that will pave the way to balanced budgets and convince central bankers that there is a workable plan for digging out of the present hole, then we may see the dollar stabilize and eventually gain strength. Any such plan will have to show how entitlements will be dealt with. Also, a long range plan showing how out-of-control military expenditures will be reined in would be very constructive as far as supporting the dollar. Obviously, nothing is going to happen overnight, so a continued slide in the dollar is to be expected, after bouncing along resistance for a while, as central banks -- Japan has already announced their intentions -- mount their defenses.
Should we see more down days in the market next week while the dollar bounces off resistance? Is what we are seeing today the anticipation move!
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* Where one gets into trouble in making market predictions has to do with timing. One will always be correct when predicting a crash or a rampant bull market as long as nothing is said about when such should occur. John Kenneth Galbraith was once asked by a reporter if there was going to be a market crash, and Galbraith responded by saying "definitely," or words to that effect. The next day, the headlines in the papers read: "Galbraith Predicts Crash!". And, of course Galbraith's prediction was dead on. He never said when however.
If congress acts with legislation that will pave the way to balanced budgets and convince central bankers that there is a workable plan for digging out of the present hole, then we may see the dollar stabilize and eventually gain strength. Any such plan will have to show how entitlements will be dealt with. Also, a long range plan showing how out-of-control military expenditures will be reined in would be very constructive as far as supporting the dollar. Obviously, nothing is going to happen overnight, so a continued slide in the dollar is to be expected, after bouncing along resistance for a while, as central banks -- Japan has already announced their intentions -- mount their defenses.
Should we see more down days in the market next week while the dollar bounces off resistance? Is what we are seeing today the anticipation move!
_______
* Where one gets into trouble in making market predictions has to do with timing. One will always be correct when predicting a crash or a rampant bull market as long as nothing is said about when such should occur. John Kenneth Galbraith was once asked by a reporter if there was going to be a market crash, and Galbraith responded by saying "definitely," or words to that effect. The next day, the headlines in the papers read: "Galbraith Predicts Crash!". And, of course Galbraith's prediction was dead on. He never said when however.