Paying for a mentor vs. Elite Trader Forum

[marketsurfer]

I’m not sure it has to have an edge over everyone else but it has to have a statistically proven probability of making money in the long run.


My strategy is a simple reversal strategy that only has a few criteria. It has a win rate of 40% but the wins are larger than the losses. Year after year it makes a profit. I consider part of my edge as having the discipline to take the next trade after having a series of losses. You know following my plan.


I’d hazard a guess that more traders fail from lack of discipline than from not having a defined edge.

Probably true.

surf

 

[smallStops]

..

Yeah. Some folks apparently enjoy reading my material. Not sure why, but i enjoy writing/research so it works

This is what one would say a perfect match! Lucky you and them!

 

[smallStops]

...

I’d hazard a guess that more traders fail from lack of discipline than from not having a defined edge.

I fully agree with you, but people would do anything to avoid at all costs sorting out their psychology.
They'll find tons of escuses :
- psychology is not the problem, the edge is : but then ask them to be disciplined 4 months even on demo and they can't
- i am ok , and i don't need a shrink. the ego talking
etc
Luckily trading sooner or later becomes a simple mirror of the trader's psychology.

 

[Visaria]

How did you arrive at the "1800" figure?

50 is a minimum if the markets followed a normal distribution. Since we know they don't, we think they follow a fatter tailed distribution than normal, we need more than 50. The 1800 number was suggested by William Eckhardt in an interview.

 

[EPrado]

The disclaimer is required of all financial publishers. It is mostly boilerplate-- talk to the regulators if u have an issue.

Any testing i have seen indicates that the use of stops degrades performance. ( theory)

In reality-- most of us are ( myself included) are weak hands so stops despite degrading tested performance are a must for survival

I hope this makes sense and i am sorry for the confusion.

surf

No need to apologize. Strange requirement that a newsletter that gives out trades should have to say "don't use our information to trade".

I don't see how stops could degrade performance. But it's not the first time I have heard that. I guess in a world where every trade is an instant winner and all you will be doing is taking profit it somewhat makes sense. But to say "I am holding this position no matter until this date or until it gets to my profit level" is insane. That's basically the recipe to blowing out your account.

 

[EPrado]

Surf,

Do you have a track record for your calls (Price drivers) so potential clients who want to pay for your site can see what the whole thing is about? After reading the below I have to think you do.

"one must also consider the very real alternative that those who don't provide records have bad or zero results." Surf Aug 12 ,2015

 

[Visaria]

ah, leave him alone...look, it's just human nature to crow about success and to keep quiet about the opposite.

 

[EPrado]

ah, leave him alone...look, it's just human nature to crow about success and to keep quiet about the opposite.

I hear ya man. That's most likely the case. But if someone is going to charge people for their market calls/trades they really have to be able to back it up. Surf makes a point about going after such people on here. I applaud him for that. But now he's kind of falling into that category.

 

[Visaria]

fair enough. do what u must.

 

[nursebee]

No. A mentors success should also be obvious in lifestyle, industry recognition, and trading records. Its hard to hide success in this business--

NO NO NO, this is a judgement.
Industry recognition comes only to those in the industry. How would a stay at home retail trader get recognition?
Lifestyle? So you have to look flashy to prove you got money? This is how suckers get attracted to bad fish.

Trading records? Yeah, I'm down with that.