Pay$enseDidIt!TOP CC System becomes E-mini Bonanza

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

Hello again all,

I write so much - as I let my (now) purely mechanical e-mini system unfold - that I'll just post more.

It has been a *c*r*a*z*y* market. I just read this morning how it is described as a counter-trend rally?

Interesting nevertheless.

I will not post re-directions per ET policy, but I have a new blog and am on twitter. Many may know of my website (see Profile to get info).

Who knows, one day I may pay $500 a month and become an ET sponsor. God knows 99% here need to be saved from themselves.

The vehement pursuit of the maximizingly complicated "system" to provide just a short-term gain????

This has got to be frustrating, when there is no point in this when I can share with you a true long-term, high-growth winning system - and it's simple, too!

Yes, the $$$ have not begun to flow in. . .after all to TOTALLY prove this out I have to show that my past successful navigation in and out the market - to produce a high annual average - can indeed be done under Collective2 audit - for years!

I have 1.75 years under my belt and I know the best is yet to come - and soon. In the meantime I can highlight the few true winning systems at C2 as I move up the ranks to overtake them.

It is a no-brainer. So please weigh in with at least why you may like to still gather the day-trading gains you still do?

pay$

Wayne Gibbous · Dec 1, 2009

Didn't your last few systems fail miserably? And you just kept starting new ones until something seemed to work?

What makes you think these are not just random luck, or just happen to match current conditions? What will happen when these new ones fail and lose money for your subscribers? Will you reimburse their losses?

I'm just trying to understand the mindset of these system sellers. So many have failed. The best bet is to learn on your own. Buying a system or subscribing to these services is a guaranteed road to failure.

--->>> http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Random...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1259678310&sr=1-1

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

Limited to 1000 characters at C2 profile. . .this may trigger a reason to pay attention (sense) to my methods:

TO BLOW UP OR NOT TO BLOW UP-that's the question.See below:TRUE trading successes![high return(average or CAGR)& Calmar Ratio]C2 journey start:MAY2007.I came with"winning"system-trading covered calls for years."Success"=accomplished LONG-TERM results.MUST take into effect,"POWER (try calc. 50%/yr gain for 5 yrs.) of COMPOUNDING!"GOAL:maximize gains+minimize losses-FOR YEARS.My initial analysis(see ET: http://tinyurl.com/ygwskcf)in 2007-still holds true today.Most don't understand this logic or ignore it as impossible(or don't care).Yet-DIFFERENCE IS HUGE(study compounding returns).True,of~10,000 C2 systems,scant few(5?)done this.So what's a Hedge Fund?Same stats apply to*real*world.95% of managers can't "beat market"(10%CAGR).Some do"hedge"long-term holdings w/small %-age in risky venture.IF make large return-ALWAYS close quick(lose back all gains?)What's the point?"PROOF"of consistent high-growth approach IS possible+IS a highly regarded effort-BASED SOLELY on *EXPECTED*+real RESULTS!

If you can understand the "gist"!

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

Quote from Wayne Gibbous:

Didn't your last few systems fail miserably? And you just kept starting new ones until something seemed to work?

What makes you think these are not just random luck, or just happen to match current conditions? What will happen when these new ones fail and lose money for your subscribers? Will you reimburse their losses?

I'm just trying to understand the mindset of these system sellers. So many have failed. The best bet is to learn on your own. Buying a system or subscribing to these services is a guaranteed road to failure.

--->>> http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Random...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1259678310&sr=1-1

2Wayne: Yeah...that whole thought process is over-rated. "Miserably" is what most all traders probably are - doesn't mean we need to stick to this plan.

Digging a bit deeper into your gut-feelings...yeah there is a history of mine at C2 and perhaps I should chronicle this:

First system May 2007 to Nov 2007
Knew CC system worked and ran into scary market for my long-term approach - so DD and steady recoup occurred as opposed to consistently "scalped" gains as most think is the best way (lol).

Had I kept it up for an additional two years - it would be tops or near the very top of systems ranked by age and annual rate. I had coupled index option spreads with this - but managed A LOT of trades. Then I "discovered" futures and after a quick sharp gain came a sudden sharp loss (hadn't learned this instrument, yet) so closed this down to get up to speed w/ futures.

I decided I can trade my CC approach in and out of trends and use index futures - eventually with about double the success. This would have periods of DD - unlike scalping systems - but would compound powerfully - you'll see.

The next two systems were devoted to trading "every which way" using futures and of course I ran these into the ground - but learned in about 3 months.

Then I opened 5 systems and traded then the same LONG/SHORT - but with varying degrees of exposre. This - with the crazy market - got some very volatile uptrends in equity contrasted with some less volatile ones.

After a few more months of "fine-tuning" my money management approach - I full mechanized things and stuck with 2 - one that trades index futures now traded for over a year and three quarters and one that trades ETFs for over a year.

I trade much less and EOD and have my rules 100% mechanical. My back and forward test look great and entirely achieveable. I do not plan on making any major changes from here (actually since Sept.)

So yeah an initial 6 months with my "old" strategy then closed. 3 months taking systems from 100k to 0 - to learn (lol).

Then 5 systems started Mar 2008. All went significantly up using my "trend-following" methods for multi-months. Of these about half I traded at the end back to break-even and the others I stopped trading, but held the gains.

That was a long time ago. My last trades in these were about a year ago.

The ones I kept trading and continued to hone I will be reflecting here and in the future.

So no, not random. Didn't keep starting them, just to make them "work". I absolutely know that as long as we have a market and I am able to manage I will continue to trade in a similar manner. We absolutely had the worst 2 years for my systems, btw.

But I agree learning on your own is the best - I am just going to facilitate along the way.

After all why do "the best" incorporate such intensely complicated schemes and why do most or many not "get" the long-term compounding system approach as king?

Why doesn't everyone get that short-term gains are miniscule to a long-term investment plan. So yeah, much learning is in the offing, given the next 6 months+.p$

FYI-I will be highlighting the very best at C2 and yes these have a lot to offer. I plan on eventually leap-fogging these.

And no I have not gotten the type of market (or enough time) for my systems to really shine, and so have had scant subscribers.

Now that things have evolved enuf, I have a few, but I do not charge. I have to get near new highs (hopefully soon) to be justified in this.

Ultimately, I can just trade this on my own - but I am now under-capitalized.

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

Since I have a lot of time until the new year allows for my (newer) system(s) (futures & ETFs) to be absolutely proven to be a simple yet long-term/high-growth winning proposition -

(being EOD & fully-mechanical helps, too). . .

I just post around to try and develop a following. Here is an example at a covered call Yahoo! Group I just joined:

Hi. I am new to the board with a recent reply:

Re: Let's Get the Site Active Again !!

My covered call strategy is no doubt a lot simpler than most. many a "mantra" I
take from IBD like: "The safest place to be during a market downtrend is in
cash."

My stop methods got me cashed out before the big 21-day drop
(http://tinyurl.com/y8q3fep) and back in on the 12-Mar-2009.

G

I see the board hasn't been active much until recently. It has been an interesting couple of years for my covered call system - perhaps that played some part in this.

IMHO I think the current market rally has nearly run it's course and that when (not if) we get a market correction (>10% decline) a lot of the remaining excess (market volatility) will be removed - to once again make a prime environment for my CC strategy.

I can share a lot and will make an attempt to update regularly so let's start by saying in this forum I will speak mostly on what I know best regarding option strategies: covered calls.

I've been very focussed in this area of trading for over 10 years - and I've seen almost every kind of market environment. How does it apply to my long-term approach?

I sell covered calls against underlying market-leading growth stocks during flat-uptrending market periods. IBD helps me with indicating
"tops" and "bottoms". I cash out during market corrections and bear markets.

This system has worked quite well for over a decade. If any are interested I can share some of this with you. Key to my high-growth strategy are maximizing the effect of "compounding" monthly returns - while keeping tight rein on losses in the event of a downturn.

My stop methods have proven to be integral in the success of this strategy. My CAGR or compound annual growth rate is superb and max drawdown well-contained - all key to a true long-term winning strategy.

My stance right now is "Caution" and I have pared back to limited exposure - taking my cue from institutions on whether or not the stocks will move higher or fall off and correct.

I can be quite nimble and patient - but I do not hold onto losing positions. When the trend is our friend - vehement gains can be made in a fairly safe and conservative manner. . .but I cash out (stop=stock purchase price minus option premium) during uncertainty.

Fortunately, phasing in and out of market trends has been consistently profitable. Ramped up gains over the years have for the most part been retained using my stop methods.

I have had to be cautious these last few months - while the market run continued. Perhaps in the near future we'll see the next sudden decline and a subsequent move off the bottom making my strategy less risky to get fully invested again in covered call positions.

I would like to share this with those interested, since I've monitored most all cc strategies and find my result to be tops. Many may have been exposed along with the added risk this past half-year to gain more in 2009 (while I simply made sure past compounded returns are retained), but with my system you have to take in many or all market years.

Getting risky in one year for a temporary jump in gains may very well work against you bringing sudden severe drawdown and steep account loss, rendering years of system gains worthless. If one is patient, no gains for a while will bring much gains and/or outperformance as I've seen time and again.

Like I say with investing using covered calls or most anything -- a steady high-growth compounded average managed for YEARS is the surest way to long-term prosperity and great wealth.

G

Yes - my CC system is still all it ever was. It is tracked at C2 (since Jan '09), too. After all, trade-by-trade alerts at my website is the surest way to learn in about a year how I can grow year-after-year steadily upward.

:eek:

Did I say relatively low risk? Also, I know that I am SO ineloquent - but hopefully my RESULTS-driven mantra will over-ride. Yeah, much can be learned so let me know what I can add.

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

From my blog:

This blog will attempt to capture my journey toward more success I expect into the New Year and beyond.

My new ETF system - now traded a little more than a year - is under Collective2.com audit.

System Features

 â¢ Holds LONG QLD/QID positions based on market bias: uptrends and corrections.
 â¢ A purely mechanical, trend-following system that uses 1.5X (max) Nasdaq 100 leverage.
 â¢ Signals back-tested for the life of the stock market. Forward-tested since 1998.
 â¢ Uses protective Stop Loss orders.

FWIW - Still waiting for confirmation wrt market direction. Today the NYSE composite jumped 1.7%, but trade lightened (indicates institutions were reluctant).p$

el pollo · Dec 1, 2009

Dilbert's NONSENSE rebranded.

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

(hatred will get u nowhere, son

)

. . .more from my blog-

From Covered Calls to Using Index Futures or ETFs

My initial work from 1998-present using covered calls averages a 50% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) with a 20% (max) DD (drawdown). It maximizes gains from high-yielding CC positions during market uptrends, yet moves to cash during market corrections.

So successful was I in capturing these key market trends, I decided to learn proper money management in how to trade a diversified instrument using index futures or ETFs to capture both LONG and SHORT markets.

paysense

paysense · Dec 1, 2009

"...yet moves to cash during corrections."

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=174184&perpage=6&pagenumber=7