Paulson does it again! loses his customers another 18%

[noob_trad3r]

Quote from darwin666:

OK. we got it. .he did make billions in 2008 betting against the MBS. housing CDS. etc etc.. but that was it.. no more once in a lifetime opptys are around. he is as average as any other investor


http://www.advisorone.com/2009/02/01/the-drunkards-walk-by-leonard-mlodinow



"
Nowhere is the attribution of genius and success more misleading than on Wall Street.

For 15 straight years, Bill Miller, portfolio manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust, outperformed the S&P 500. Money magazine showered Miller with accolades by calling him "the Greatest Money Manager of the 1990s." Morningstar followed suit by naming Miller "Fund Manager of the Decade" and Smart Money magazine referred to him as one of the top 30 most influential people in investing from 2001 to 2006.

Mlodinow deconstructs Miller's performance as a random streak and not rare genius. He writes: "There were more than 30 12-month periods during his streak in which he lost to the S&P's weighted average, but they weren't calendar years, and the streak was based on the intervals from January 1 to December 31." In a sense, the streak was artificial to begin with and one that by chance was defined in a manner that worked to Miller's favor. Given Miller's recent fall from grace and subsequent market underperformance, the author's point makes sense. Mlodinow provides other compelling mathematical evidence to prove his point.

1990s was a bull market. Rising tides lift all boats.

 

[nkhoi]

Quote from noob_trad3r:

1990s was a bull market. Rising tides lift all boats.

true, now is stormy market

 

[Mtrader]

Quote from profitloss999:



John Paulson is as stupid as an amateur investor.

Yes, maybe stupid, but surely very rich. This cannot be said about most stupid investors. They are more like...... poor.

 

[newwurldmn]

Before 2008, Paulson was running a several hundred million risk arb fund. He has a long and successful track record building a net worth well over 100MM.

He hit the big trade and blew up to a size that required a different investing style which he hasn't adapted well too.

 

[atticus]

Quote from newwurldmn:

Before 2008, Paulson was running a several hundred million risk arb fund. He has a long and successful track record building a net worth well over 100MM.

He hit the big trade and blew up to a size that required a different investing style which he hasn't adapted well too.

+1

Some say he got the idea direct from Burry, but it took incredible balls to average into those CDS markets. AUM increased 100-fold. Yeah, $30B is a tough figure to earn on. Guy managing $30B plus (at the peak) is a loser. Gotta love this site populated with bus drivers.

 

[zdreg]

Quote from atticus:

+1

Some say he got the idea direct from Burry, but it took incredible balls to average into those CDS markets. AUM increased 100-fold. Yeah, $30B is a tough figure to earn on. Guy managing $30B plus (at the peak) is a loser. Gotta love this site populated with bus drivers.

you are insulting bus drivers which is an an honorable profession. jackie gleason on the honeymooners is a genius compared to the ET general population.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from atticus:

but it took incredible balls to average into those CDS markets. AUM increased 100-fold.

Well, balls for sure, but he was risking other people's money and he had already made 100 million for himself in the previous 2 decades, but I wonder how much of his own money he risked...

Now when AUM increases so fast that means that he can actually lose way more than what he made in the previous good years...

Data: 2009 :"Paulson & Co.’s funds (with an estimated $36 billion under management and growing by the day) were up a staggering $15 billion as the markets teetered in 2007; one fund gained 590 percent, another 353 percent."

http://upstart.bizjournals.com/exec...ohn-Paulson-Profits-in-Downturn.html?page=all

 

[oldtime]

Quote from zdreg:

you are insulting bus drivers which is an an honorable profession. jackie gleason on the honeymooners is a genius compared to the ET general population.

I've never been a bus driver (don't like people) but I owned a couple of trucks and ran coast to coast. otherwise, I lost 25% of my account in just ten days in FEB 2013 trying to short that USD, so 18% doesn't look too bad to me. Glad they don't write articles about me, and glad I have enough money I don't need management fees to pay the bills. (and I manage a little money for friends and family, one of them was in on that forex trade. I am getting very good at changing the subject whenever he calls.)

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from Pekelo:

Well, balls for sure, but he was risking other people's money and he had already made 100 million for himself in the previous 2 decades, but I wonder how much of his own money he risked...

Now when AUM increases so fast that means that he can actually lose way more than what he made in the previous good years...

Data: 2009 :"Paulson & Co.’s funds (with an estimated $36 billion under management and growing by the day) were up a staggering $15 billion as the markets teetered in 2007; one fund gained 590 percent, another 353 percent."

http://upstart.bizjournals.com/exec...ohn-Paulson-Profits-in-Downturn.html?page=all

He can lose more dollars because a lot of investors flocked to him. That was their problem.

I bet he had a significant amount of personal money in that fund.

Risk arb isn't about swinging a big stick - it's about being thorough and avoiding bad trades. He must have had enormous conviction. The trade took years. He was bleeding all those years.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from atticus:

+1

Some say he got the idea direct from Burry, but it took incredible balls to average into those CDS markets. AUM increased 100-fold. Yeah, $30B is a tough figure to earn on. Guy managing $30B plus (at the peak) is a loser. Gotta love this site populated with bus drivers.

I admit to not knowing a lot about the guy, but a lot of it seems like good "branding" to me.