Patak, math and opportunity....

Quote from Jtrader342:

I would agree with all of that ScalperJoe. One perspective I have on trading the larger account and size though is this...if everything is measured in percentages then the parameters stay the same regardless of size.

Also, I just watched a tutorial on the T4 platform as well as the Ninja platform. It's like comparing DOS to Windows! Not just the asthetics, but the streamlined efficiency and all together function/capability.

Apparently Ninja is $50/month, but the only lease on a minimum of 3 months. I guess thats were I got the $150 I mentioned earlier.

Gonna start watching the tutorials on both, comparing and then direct my attention to one or the other predominately. As of now, Ninja is ahead.

Thanks,
J.
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Your perspective is correct IN THEORY, however for the purposes of passing the combine, trading the larger account size is much more difficult as the parameters are not the same. Review the 8 different combines and compare the difference. My gripe with the TST model is the time limit. Obviously, there are more than 10 trading days within a calendar month, and more than 20 trading days in two calendar months. However, current parameters require the trader to "cherry pick" the days they think will have the greatest opportunity within the calendar period.

I posted a request to allow for a custom combine to trade ANY day within the specified combine period, while trading a minimum of 10 or 20 days, depending on the combine selected. This allows more days to work out of a draw and a lower average profit objective per day. As another post mentioned, TIME is your enemy while doing the combine. Others have requested custom combines to change some of the parameters as well.

Patak posted an announcement of having a discounted "Elite Trader Group Combine" in mid-November. It will be interesting to see what terms they offer.

Regarding the platform, I think you're observing what many others have already posted. When comparing the T4 to Ninja, there is no doubt the Ninja platform is far superior in terms of layout and ease of functionality.

Since you're on the T4 trial, you'll start to receive an email of each funded trader report. It seems the past seven traders passed while trading CL. And they used the T4, so it's probably not as bad once you're used to the settings for entering and exiting orders. However, if you're taking a long term approach, then you can always get Ninja and pay the license fee at some point.
 
Quote from ScalperJoe:

Actually, that's not quite correct. If there's a news event over the weekend, or even between a break from one session to the next, gaps can and DO occur. They are not as frequent as stocks, from what I've noticed. I think that's what Maverick was trying to imply.
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Actually, gap opens are FAR more frequent than flat opens in ES, so 24 hour trading is not relevant since this thread applies to DAY trading.

:)
 
Interesting on the time factor in the combine. I was under the impression that you had to trade AT LEAST that many days within the given time period. ie: You have 30 days to meet the profit level within the requirements and you have to trade on at least 10 of those days.

I thought the idea behind it was so that you did not have to force trades on days that were not conducive to trading. Will have to look into that.

Thanks,
Jeremy
 
Found an error in my spreadsheet. I had it counting ticks as double. Corrected.


was 25 (tick) = value x's 2 (12.50 x's 2)
Now 25 (tick) = value (12.50)


getting there.....


Thanks,
J
 
WOW....all my math with regard to ticks was jacked up because I used the $25 value when building the sheet and then dropped back to 12.50. Haven't figured out a way to adjust the tick formulas based on value by using one common variable just yet. If I can't, I may have to alter and save a specific sheet for each individual market intended to trade. Wouldn't be too bad, but would be more convenient to just input the value and have it adjust all the tick formulas automatically. If it can be done I will figure it out. My eyes might permanently cross though. I have to take breaks when I get too stumped after multiple hours of setting all this up. Probably have over 16 total in it so far (i'm not a math wiz or an EXEL student so it takes me longer because I have to figure out what I need and then reverse engineer a formula to get it).

Again, gettin' there....

Thanks,
J.
 
Quote from Jtrader342:

WOW....all my math with regard to ticks was jacked up because I used the $25 value when building the sheet and then dropped back to 12.50. Haven't figured out a way to adjust the tick formulas based on value by using one common variable just yet. If I can't, I may have to alter and save a specific sheet for each individual market intended to trade. Wouldn't be too bad, but would be more convenient to just input the value and have it adjust all the tick formulas automatically. If it can be done I will figure it out. My eyes might permanently cross though. I have to take breaks when I get too stumped after multiple hours of setting all this up. Probably have over 16 total in it so far (i'm not a math wiz or an EXEL student so it takes me longer because I have to figure out what I need and then reverse engineer a formula to get it).

Again, gettin' there....

Thanks,
J.
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I would use Crude Oil as your default. It's $10 a tick. I think if there is one thing ALL of us agree on here, is that Oil is going to give you the best shot at hitting those numbers. Oil moves about 2k a day per contract and that's with a narrow ATR. It can get up to 4k or 5k when it's volatile.

Regarding the trading days, if you do the 20 day combine, you get graded only on 20 days. I think it actually shuts off after your 20th day of trading. But you can choose which days out of 60 you want to trade. This actually helps people who have jobs or have meetings or maybe running their own business and have other things going on.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I would use Crude Oil as your default. It's $10 a tick. I think if there is one thing ALL of us agree on here, is that Oil is going to give you the best shot at hitting those numbers. Oil moves about 2k a day per contract and that's with a narrow ATR. It can get up to 4k or 5k when it's volatile.

Regarding the trading days, if you do the 20 day combine, you get graded only on 20 days. I think it actually shuts off after your 20th day of trading. But you can choose which days out of 60 you want to trade. This actually helps people who have jobs or have meetings or maybe running their own business and have other things going on.
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I will check out Crude. I have been running everything off of ES. I have noticed a few posts in other threads warning other newbies to stay away from ES. I assumed that was due to volatility and being whipsawed if not accurate and nimble (more experienced). If that is the case, how does crude compare? What markets would you classify as beginer, novice and pro. One example of the top in each catagory would give me a frame of reference when comparing others.

The time and work factor are not something I will have issue with. The biggest reason I can see though, with regard to choosing the 10 day vs. the 20 day is the minimum average profit needed to achieve the goal for that given time period. Even though the profit goal is less with the 10 day challenge, the avg daily amount is 60-70% higher.

I know you can't shoot for this everyday. This is an average. If you are trading and carry a daily average of $100 when you need an avg of $150, you will never meet the profit requirement. To me, it is important to know these numbers as a base line in order to select a combine that fits realistically with ones trading ability. If you don't do that, you might as well just send them a check and move on. On the flip side, why limit yourself by passing a combine that affords 50K in funding if you could realistically pass the 150K and therefore generate more profits for yourself (and them).

This is getting good, lol. I'm actually having alot of fun laying all this out. It reminds me of a Rubix Cube.

Still working out a few kinks I found in my sheet, but the more I tweak it, the better and more realistic it seems to be. Running numbers from random days in past history from the ES (will now look at CL) and seeing what is avg (or realistic) in order to determine a general idea of a range of expectancy. So far it beats the crap out of my 'hourly" alternative, lol.

If I can get this lined out, it's a game changer!

Thanks guys, keep the input coming. Constructive (key word there) critisizm is always welcome!

J.

 
Quote from Jtrader342:


The time and work factor are not something I will have issue with. The biggest reason I can see though, with regard to choosing the 10 day vs. the 20 day is the minimum average profit needed to achieve the goal for that given time period. Even though the profit goal is less with the 10 day challenge, the avg daily amount is 60-70% higher.
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Also, I know this is a result of the higher profit target. I am looking at it as "what's realistic for a daily average." Again, if your trading capabilities achieve an average of $250, you would be pushing yourself beyond that to strive for $350. This could lead to overtrading or sloppy trading. In that case you are not being realistic to go for the 50K account with the 10 day timeframe. However, if you are aware of this and the option of a lower daily average over a longer period of time is available (which it is with the 20 day combine), you could still achieve your goal of the 50K account without having to stretch beyond your capabilities. It is more realistic.

If you expect to achieve a daily average of $250/day, there would be no point in attempting the 150K combine. It would be a waste of time and money.

Again, I am not saying I will be able to achieve anything. I am simply giving an example of how I am thinking through this process in order to take advantage of the opportunity in the most beneficial way. I want to make money, not play.

I won't have an idea of my own general expectancy until I sample enough historical data and begin to see how my "system" fits. Even then it will only be a general range at best as many have stated "do that in a live market". I know that is a big difference, but I have tools (mental)for that too, lol.


Thanks,
J.
 
Yep, had to set up a sheet specifically for CL by re-doing much of the math to move based on tick moves of 1 instead of 25 like ES. Think I will just set up a sheet for 2-3 different products and observe only those markets. Still working though, If I can find a way to adjust that variable on the sheet it would become universal to whatever market I choose at the time, but that is not a huge issue right now as I am not looking to move around between products much. I assume most who trade these tend to specialize in only 1 or two markets.

Taking a break because my eyes are crossing. "It's the brain pain, Coach" (The Waterboy)


Thanks,
J.

Here's what I came up with on CL:





 
Strange thing. Playing around with CL. You would think that since it has a lower tick value it would be less lucrative, but somewhat easier to manipulate. In fact, the opposite is true due to the lower tick of .01 compared to a tick of .25 when trading ES. I find that you have to set your stop much further away, which affects the amount of contracts you can buy when sizing the position. Everything with the sizing is relative to the ticks.

I could be missing something here as my mind is getting somewhat scrambled, but I think I am correct.

Will double check the sheets again.....

Thanks,
J.
 
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