Passive index investing is the new mortgage crisis?

[nooby_mcnoob]

There was a 2% decline in consumer spending in 2008/2009. A 25% decline would be a catastrophe! Or did you mean 25% of the imports we get from China? That would be a $134B decline. Which is, as it happens, about $10B more than the decline from 2008 to 2009 ($8,684.0B to $8,561.2B).

Not sure why you're pushing back on this so hard, I'm agreeing with you and using your logic, just applied to the actual numbers! Sometime you have to ask yourself if you've allowed yourself to be overcome by what you're tribe tells you you're "supposed" to think to the point that you find yourself disagreeing with your own logic!

Ugh, not being clear again! I meant 25% of the decline in consumer spending from 2008/2009!

 

[Sig]

Ugh, not being clear again! I meant 25% of the decline in consumer spending from 2008/2009!

So you're maintaining that despite your assertion that consumers are price sensitive and will stop buying the majority of imports from China if the price goes up, and despite the fact that imports from China are $539.5B and despite the fact that if shit could be made somewhere besides China for the same price as in China it already would be, the impact on consumer spending will be just $31B? If you find that credible, then more power to you. Of course that's considerably more than the decrease in consumer spending from 2009-10 and 10-11 and...oh every Obama year that I don't doubt you are convinced was an economic horror?
Again, it's bizarre that you asked a question, laid out your line of logic, and when I simply plugged the actual numbers into your logic and showed you the answer you all of a sudden realized that didn't meet with your tribe's pre-conceived notion of reality so start arguing against what you just argued for only minutes ago. Doesn't that bother you, just a little bit? It sure would me!

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

So you're maintaining that despite your assertion that consumers are price sensitive and will stop buying the majority of imports from China if the price goes up, and despite the fact that imports from China are $539.5B and despite the fact that if shit could be made somewhere besides China for the same price as in China it already would be, the impact on consumer spending will be just $31B? If you find that credible, then more power to you. Of course that's considerably more than the decrease in consumer spending from 2009-10 and 10-11 and...oh every Obama year that I don't doubt you are convinced was an economic horror?
Again, it's bizarre that you asked a question, laid out your line of logic, and when I simply plugged the actual numbers into your logic and showed you the answer you all of a sudden realized that didn't meet with your tribe's pre-conceived notion of reality so start arguing against what you just argued for only minutes ago. Doesn't that bother you, just a little bit? It sure would me!

Uh... what... I think you're conflating threads. I'm perfectly happy for a repeat of 2008/2009. I think the reality will be somewhere in between, and not worse.

 

[Sig]

Uh... what... I think you're conflating threads. I'm perfectly happy for a repeat of 2008/2009. I think the reality will be somewhere in between, and not worse.

Dude, you started this thread! You asked what would be the trigger to cause the next pullback. I gave it to you, or at least one reasonable option. You can't seem to figure out if you agree that tariffs could easily be the trigger (which your logic leads to) or disagree (which your tribe says you should). Sounds like you're a bit conflicted, maybe you should think about reexamining your tribe in favor of your logic?

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Dude, you started this thread! You asked what would be the trigger to cause the next pullback. I gave it to you, or at least one reasonable option. You can't seem to figure out if you agree that tariffs could easily be the trigger (which your logic leads to) or disagree (which your tribe says you should). Sounds like you're a bit conflicted, maybe you should think about reexamining your tribe in favor of your logic?

What in the actual fuck are you talking about with respect to tribe? I'm not convinced tariffs will cause a problem because I think the global supply chain will compensate. I mean, you're talking $500 billion dollars (or whatever) that will be spread out to other countries. You think people aren't chomping at that bit?

Now, will it be a perfect movement of $500 billion dollars? Unlikely. Some will move, maybe (say) 60% in the next few months. Of the remaining 40% ($200 billion), if you get a 25% price hike thereby eliminating consumer spending directly equal to that amount, that results in 2008/2009. But will it be 40%? Will it be 20%? Will it be 50%? I'm leaning towards 30-40% of supply chains that cannot be moved and thus will experience price increases. And remember, the only way to get a 2008/2009 is if 100% of that 40% is poof, vanished.

So that's why I don't think tariffs will cause 2008/2009. It's not money that's going nowhere, people WILL want that money worldwide, maybe even (dare I say), locally!

Whether I'm wrong or right in the above I don't care. What this means is somehow we need to keep track of where imports are increasing and if they are compensating. If they are roughly in line, beautiful. If not, also beautiful.

Edit: my math is (so so so very) wrong, but the point still stands.