passes!!!!!!!!!!!! congrats longs!!!!!!!!!! you were right1!!!!!
- Thread starter stock777
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haha i'm off to bed. I never got long. never short either. I still say we rebound this week.
shiiit...market was right..what kind of deal that?
give me 1T today and then maybe i cut something in next 10 years..
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-signs-debt-bill-final-senate-vote-180918112.html
give me 1T today and then maybe i cut something in next 10 years..
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-signs-debt-bill-final-senate-vote-180918112.html
Really thought there would have been a relief rally after this debt ceiling vote passed. I guess its not what many expected or unless its the economic data coming in these last 2 weeks that is really freaking out the markets. I wouldn't worry, this market has dropped to these levels a few times already and every time have bounced, unless this time the market completely falls apart and the SPX breaks all support levels and falls below 1200 I still think it bounces back above 1300 which will be an opportunity to SELL not buy. These markets are now set up to BUY all drops like today and sell on all rallies.
I'm confused, it should go down some shouldn't it. I mean the U.S. is not going to default and there is a definite plan in place to address spending. Shouldn't that temporarily buoy up the dollar a bit. I would think so, or at minimum cause some to anticipate a little stronger dollar.
Some earlier decline was surely just folks stepping aside because of uncertainty, or perhaps not getting out in time and being trapped long and having to sell.. But now that it's a done deal, the market should go down a bit, shouldn't it?
Anyway I went to nearly all cash on the Thursday before the 4th Jul weekend because at that point I had no clue what would happen, as usual.
I don't follow gold. Shouldn't it go down a little along with oil.?
I'm not long anymore since quite some time (if I had been I'd be broke now) but this situation seems strange to me:
1) Stocks down
2) Yields
3) Gold up and making significant highs
4) Oil coming down but still pretty high imo
Basically the story is "We won't have inflation and everything will suck so much returns for equities will be so low that you better sell them and since you have nowhere to put the money put it in gold just cos". If anything, the only element of the market that is "running ahead" of fundamentals right now is gold and maybe oil somewhat. The rest seem pretty reasonably priced to me (as in a price which makes sense to me given the cirumstances).
And yes, if treasury rates are at 2.6% then the market believes inflation will be ridiculously moderate *for the next 10 years*. Remember that 2 yr rates are 0.32% so that basically means that within the next 2 years there has to be pretty significant deflation to get anywhere near a decent ROI (and by decent I mean what the market deems "normal" for a real return on bonds).
So I'm not long anymore since some time because although earnings were pretty good macro economics have failed to beat expectations and in fact have in many important cases continued to suck even after such a long losing streak which does not really inspire much confidence to me. However it still looks like we are in an uptrend and at strong support so I wouldn't be surprised by either direction at the moment because markets are well priced (imo) and nobody knows whether the economy will pick up or not anytime soon.
On a final note the market's inability to rally on the news that the debt ceiling has been raised is no news at all because real traders in neither the bond nor the equity markets ever gave a shit about that because the basic facts are
a) The US is not insolvent
b) The US cannot possibly be "insolvent" given the current setup
c) Even if the debt ceiling wasn't raised that does not imply default in any way at all for quite some time
1) Stocks down
2) Yields
3) Gold up and making significant highs
4) Oil coming down but still pretty high imo
Basically the story is "We won't have inflation and everything will suck so much returns for equities will be so low that you better sell them and since you have nowhere to put the money put it in gold just cos". If anything, the only element of the market that is "running ahead" of fundamentals right now is gold and maybe oil somewhat. The rest seem pretty reasonably priced to me (as in a price which makes sense to me given the cirumstances).
And yes, if treasury rates are at 2.6% then the market believes inflation will be ridiculously moderate *for the next 10 years*. Remember that 2 yr rates are 0.32% so that basically means that within the next 2 years there has to be pretty significant deflation to get anywhere near a decent ROI (and by decent I mean what the market deems "normal" for a real return on bonds).
So I'm not long anymore since some time because although earnings were pretty good macro economics have failed to beat expectations and in fact have in many important cases continued to suck even after such a long losing streak which does not really inspire much confidence to me. However it still looks like we are in an uptrend and at strong support so I wouldn't be surprised by either direction at the moment because markets are well priced (imo) and nobody knows whether the economy will pick up or not anytime soon.
On a final note the market's inability to rally on the news that the debt ceiling has been raised is no news at all because real traders in neither the bond nor the equity markets ever gave a shit about that because the basic facts are
a) The US is not insolvent
b) The US cannot possibly be "insolvent" given the current setup
c) Even if the debt ceiling wasn't raised that does not imply default in any way at all for quite some time
This is confusing. Perhaps its just a crazy combination of events combined with summer nonsense. I thought gold would be down, the dollar up and the market down. But I just read that gold spiked up today on Bank of Korea buying. I would think that this debt deal in the US would be a negative for gold, because I expected the dollar to gain some, and I guess it did but gold went up anyway. Shows you what I know.
Nothing!
If I was long gold, and had I nice profit I'd be a seller right now. Probably lose my shirt.