BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, expects a "meaningfully slower pace" of global economic growth in the second half of this year but does not predict a return to recession.
_______________________________________________________
I have my doubts as well. However, I give "BlackRock" a lot of Credit in their wisdom. I also give credit to the Hard Data mine'd by GS...even though I do not care much for their "Investment Banking Division".
I have delt with both BlackRock and GS....so it's from experience, not wishful thinking.
I would lean more towards BlackRock's weighted comments and call it "Stagflation". Not Hot, Not Cold, just luk-warm. Meaning...
1.No job growth and tap out at10% or a little hire in Unemployment in the US. Meaning, NO JOB GROWTH on a % bases.
2. Assest's like a HOME....not much movement up or down in Value....
3. US STOCK MARKET...Sideways into a very tight range for a few years.
4. Earnings....Flat with very little upward Guidence.
5. Wages, will fall slowly.
6. Consumer spending will be very very light.
7. AGI's, inflation. (Consumer staples in other words as well as Food)
8 Energy, may see some uptick but nothing to heavy.
I guess think of the Carter Years minus the Gas Shortage. And think Decaded long.