paper for people who still want to believe in fairy tales, free & fair markets & other fantasies.

[padutrader]

Markets Financial or otherwise, are always manipulated or controlled by those, who can do this, for personal profit.Since all business is for personal gain this may be considered acceptable in the frame work of business practices.
Markets are not moved by wind,water God or Devil.....they are moved by men.
Buy wholesale sell retail is what is being done in every market in the world. This may be called manipulation but, it is beyond any doubt,that it is good business sense.

 

[nickynoes]

and people they me I am just wrong to average down and this is truly averaging down.

If you want to average down you have to have a strategy with a clear goal in mind which averaging down will help you fulfill. Just doing it because you want will get mixed results.

 

[Kim Klaiman]

The fact that the markets are rigged and manipulated is not new. The question is what you do with it? Are you blaming the markets for your failures? Or you are trying to adapt by implementing strict risk management, proper position sizing and other techniques?

"Traders who look for excuses and outside circumstances to blame are adopting a dangerous mindset. If you believe that you are engaging in an activity where manipulation takes place and that other participants are taking advantage of you, making the right trading decisions becomes impossible.

If you are constantly expecting to be cheated or that the traders on the other site of your position will win anyways, you can’t perform at your highest level."

The following points describe the responsible trader:

• Focus on solutions and not on problems
• Stop blaming others and outside circumstances
• Focus on the things you can control
• Actively work on the things you can change
• Stop using excuses
• Understand that you can’t control the outcome
• Accept that your trading method will not work all the time

Read More:

• Are The Markets Rigged?

 

[Sig]

even when the real economy of the world has gone nowhere.

Don't you wish we could go back to the days of laissez faire and GDP per capita was a fraction of what it is now. Do you also go around whining about "kids these days" and how you remember when you could buy a candy bar for a nickel?

 

[rtw]

A lot of people got sold on Warren Buffett. It is practically, very hard to replicate what he did because he is 87 years old now.

completely agreed. buffett is awful and one of the representative figures of everything that is wrong with the unsustainable ways of modern, consumerist, industrialized, debt ridden societies.

anyone who does their research will be able to fully confirm this, i won't be giving all my knowledge away on a forum about trading, but it is crucial to understand that buffett had all the luck in the world as his investments came during a period in human history when the economy and the population of the world grew at impressive rates. those days are gone and will never come back (unless science is able to deliver a number of technological miracles). buffett has an ability to make obscene amounts of money, no doubt about that, but he has a horrendous track record of investing in polluting, unsustainable industries that greatly contribute to economic inequality. there are people like bill gates and larry page who became obscenely rich because they created products and services that have greatly improved standards of living and productivity for mostly everyone in the world. buffett on the other hand, has never invented anything of note and is more of a really gigantic rent seeking leech.

another crucial consideration that people who lack perspective miss is that buffett had tremendous returns during some decades but has been significantly lagging behind the s&p over the last decades. value investment makes logical sense and for decades it was a brilliant investing strategy, but in this age of stupid, rabid financial bubbles the big money has been made betting big on the most idiotic symbols with ridiculous multiples and on unsound strategies like shorting volatility.

not to mention that if one evaluates buffett's record of speculation after removing the effects of central banks' manipulation and interference his performance then actually becomes negative. after all, when you make immense and idiotic bets on systemically important industries (banks, airlines, automobile makers, etc), you will get bailed out every time you are wrong, which is a privilege that retail speculators definitely do not get.

 

[rtw]

Markets Financial or otherwise, are always manipulated or controlled by those, who can do this, for personal profit.Since all business is for personal gain this may be considered acceptable in the frame work of business practices.

mr. padu,

i think you haven't read the paper i shared. in short, what it proves is that private, for profit business like exchanges, banks and publicly listed companies have been recurrently bailed out by public, supposedly democratic institutions that have never been tasked with supporting private exchanges.

i never insinuated that exchanges should abandon their profit motive, or that exchanges and indices should not be evidently rigged in their practices and procedures, what this paper and tons of other concurring evidence prove is that public, governmental, supposedly democratic institutions have repeatedly bailed out private financial markets from the idiotic excesses of their own participants. central banks and other institutions actively manipulate and interfere with financial markets when they have no mandate whatsoever to do any of that. they also have the b*lls to deny their involvement and their serial idiotic inflation of stupid financial bubbles.

all of this means that reality can actually be suspended for long periods on financial markets while stupidity, idiocy and greed are generously rewarded, not knowledge or appropriate appraisal of investment opportunities. that's something i would have liked to have known some years ago when i first started speculating and that's a crucial lesson i want to share with the members of this forum who are just getting started, which is why i took the time to share this paper and start this thread.

 

[rtw]

The fact that the markets are rigged and manipulated is not new. The question is what you do with it? Are you blaming the markets for your failures? Or you are trying to adapt by implementing strict risk management, proper position sizing and other techniques?

mr. Klaiman,


i fully agree with your proposition. if my friends or family ever manage to convince me to try and teach them how to trade profitably i would actually order them to focus solely on price action and nothing else. i also would show them that knowledge, information and reality are actually obstacles to profitable speculation in financial markets and should be disregarded, along with all other external noise.

financial markets are a joke, and a very bad one at that. it only takes a look at how the selloffs caused by the idiotic vote by stupid britons to leave the european union, the 2016 election in the usa, the election of a government that opposes the european union in italia plus trade wars all the other calamities that greatly damage the economy of the world are erased on the futures overnight session not in days but in mere hours (it would be awesome if someone could share screengrabs of the futures overnight sessions for these dates). if it wasn't so idiotic, it would be hilarious that the nikkei has been trading at its highest levels in decades when nippon is still stuck in permanent recession and deflation and when their population keeps shrinking annually at significant rates. the financial markets of the pr of china and how they are mandated to never sell lower than 3,000 points is almost as bad a joke as the parabolic ascent of stupid financial indices in the usa since 2017.

i understand you make money trying to teach people to speculate profitably, i hope the first thing you help them understand is that financial markets are rigged to the max and to be prepared to operate in these conditions. it is also crucial to know that eventually a time will come when the unsustainable economy of the world blows up for good and no amount of liquidity injections or rate cuts by central banks will be able to keep inflating stupid financial bubbles anymore, therefore it is indispensable to have a catastrophic threshold and exit plan. anything else would from someone who intends to teach people to speculate profitably would really amount to professional malpractice.

 

[rtw]

Don't you wish we could go back to the days of laissez faire and GDP per capita was a fraction of what it is now. Do you also go around whining about "kids these days" and how you remember when you could buy a candy bar for a nickel?

hilarious. this member urgently needs to go back to primary school to learn the very important skill of reading comprehension.


- in 2009 the s&p bottomed somewhere around 900 points, by 2018 it has consistently been trading above 2,700 points.

- meanwhile, in the usa there are pretty much the same number of full time jobs with benefits that pay middle class wages in 2018 than there were in 2007 before the previous stupid financial bubble burst (around 71 million). this even when the working age and total population of the usa has increased significantly over this period. the very infantile charts you shared say nothing about labor force participation rates nor about entrepreneurship and creation of businesses since 2009, ¿do they?.

- ¿what about wages? ¿have wages been increasing significantly to afford salaried workers higher standards of living anywhere in the world since 2009?

- ¿what about debt? ¿is there anything positive to say about what has happened with all kinds of debt since 2007?


things were horrendous in 2007, debt was unpayable and the stupid financial bubble that the stupid fed inflated after 2001 burst and permanently impacted the lives of pretty much everyone in the planet. after 2009, central banks have managed to make everything much worse and unpayable debt was more than doubled in the last decade. but hey, if the s&p has tripled since 2009 boneheads will want to believe everything must be going great.

 

[newwurldmn]

For those whop don't believe in history repeating.

http://www.usstuckonstupid.com/sos_charts.php

and how about a chart for 20 years, supposed you bought stocks just begore huge drop, you were out and about for a few days. Check what happened for next 20 years. So those who only thinking about Buy and Hold.....

You cherrypicked a blip in history where the market was in a bubble through the greatest economic crisis in our history (it was so bad they came up with the term “recession” to account for all other economic downturns) and then a period where survival was a feat. You then proceed to ignore the post war boom.

In a vacuum I would say that this proves buy and hold works because you had to pick he worst 20 year period in American history to prove your point and even then loss is still like only 2percent per year.

There are many traders who lose 60percent in a year. Here it took 20 of the worst years we may ever face as a nation.

 

[themickey]

You cherrypicked a blip in history where the market was in a bubble through the greatest economic crisis in our history (it was so bad they came up with the term “recession” to account for all other economic downturns) and then a period where survival was a feat. You then proceed to ignore the post war boom.

In a vacuum I would say that this proves buy and hold works because you had to pick he worst 20 year period in American history to prove your point and even then loss is still like only 2percent per year.

There are many traders who lose 60percent in a year. Here it took 20 of the worst years we may ever face as a nation.

Do they have charts of major indexes where they do not rebalance and take out the losers?
I think if you were to plot the Dow Jones over the last 100 years or even lesser periods and kept those downhill stocks in the calculation, it would certainly paint a different picture, like negative returns.