Pair Trading Strategy Journal

paper trade, visualization-based. no make look at fundamental or news

detected spike in novartis on the finviz market map 'radar screen'

NVS -239@$42.002 (total position $10K) Novartis, Switzerland

EWL +542@$18.46 (total position $10K) Switzerland ETF

rationale:

4% spike in novartis (daily standard deviation about 1.3%)
high correlation ~87% between novartis and ewl
short major component stock against country etf
 
Quote from jonnysharp:

Closed trade

Sold DAC @ 3.98
Covered SB @ 7.01

New trade

Long AHL @ 23.28
Short MXGL @ 17.53
More...

Hi Jonny,

Can you do me a quick favour and look a couple of pages back when I had a couple of questions about the spread chart?

/cheers
 
closed trade

Sold LNN @ 34.97
Covered BUCY @ 30.04

cooper, the spread chart is important because it shows the normalized $ difference between the 2 stocks in the pair, ideally you want to fade new highs/lows on the spread chart, betting that it will return to normal, fading extreme's has always been a profitable strategy, its just another tool to aide in your conviction for placing a trade, its wise to pair trade 2 stocks that are similar in price, don't pair a $10 stock with a $100 stock, this will reduce the issue you mentioned earlier, this is just my method for doing things, a lot of pair traders do the same, its not a must do rule, just how ive customized my trading, there are other pair traders out there that have their own rules completely different to mine and they are doing well, you've gotta to customize your trading plan to your personality and what makes sense to you, these aren't cherry picked rules, they are all based on a explainable logic.
 
Quote from jonnysharp:

closed trade

Sold LNN @ 34.97
Covered BUCY @ 30.04

cooper, the spread chart is important because it shows the normalized $ difference between the 2 stocks in the pair, ideally you want to fade new highs/lows on the spread chart, betting that it will return to normal, fading extreme's has always been a profitable strategy, its just another tool to aide in your conviction for placing a trade, its wise to pair trade 2 stocks that are similar in price, don't pair a $10 stock with a $100 stock, this will reduce the issue you mentioned earlier, this is just my method for doing things, a lot of pair traders do the same, its not a must do rule, just how ive customized my trading, there are other pair traders out there that have their own rules completely different to mine and they are doing well, you've gotta to customize your trading plan to your personality and what makes sense to you, these aren't cherry picked rules, they are all based on a explainable logic.
More...

Johnnysharp:
How do manage emotionally to sit with a position like this(large loser on both sides). Do you have any advice for handling the stress that this kind of trade creates?
 
yes I broke my rule on this trade and payed for it, spread chart wasn't nowhere near an extreme. I would be lying if I said it didn't hurt, because it does, but I really step back and look at the big picture, losses are inevitable in this game, you just gotta keep going, I try and treat my trading like a business where my losses are the running costs and my wins is the revenue, so long as your revenue outstrips your costs each quarter, your running a profitable business, its a numbers game, so in a way I welcome losses as part of doing business, im still crushing the averages since starting and Im still convinced my pair trading is the safest place to house my wealth. Been talking with Jared from PTF and he informs me exiting before the pair comes back to the mean with a time based stop is the way to go, he has be doing this manually in his own journal and he is absolutely killing it, with a 85% win rate or something crazy like that, he said in the next update due out soon we will be able to customize the exit with a time based stop, wish I had it earlier, would have saved me a bundle on this trade, anyway thats water under the bridge now, im focused on my trading going forward.
 
Quote from bentedges:

Quick follow-up:

I have taken a portion of these off. Over $2 in the long KNDL, short PRXL. I'm leaving some on, but wouldn't surprise me to see a bit of a pullback in the pair given the run KNDL has had over past few days. KNDL currently at $13.40, PRXL at $11.46.

Assuming one weighted the long INTC, short TXN at a 3:2 ratio, a little bit of profit can be had, but ultimately I expect the pair to converge to -$3.00 or so. INTC currently at $16.13, TXN at $19.89.

A 2:1 ratio in the long RDC, short NFX should have one up nicely. This one works for more me thinks. RDC currently at $22.10, NFX at $35.87.

Again, just my 2 cents.
More...

Since fundamentals do matter, and TXN recently raised their guidance (even if the analysts don't believe it) I have exited the long INTC, short TXN trade at a small loss. Currently the position is down 1.0%.

The long RDC, short NFX is up 1.5%, and probably still has room to go, but I have taken the trade off. If the differential expands again, I will look to put the trade back on.

The long KNDL, short PRXL is up 13.1%. I still have the trade on, but continue to trade around the position. If it only gets back to -1.0 Std Dev, that would imply an additional $3 of upside in the differential. Note it should go from a 1:1 ratio to a 4:5 ratio now.

Two ideas that came to light that I put on Friday, both that are further than 2 Std Deviations from the mean and where the fundamentals support the trade:

Long MRX, short PMTI. MRX went out Friday at $15.70, PMTI at $17.54. A 1:1 ratio is what I am using. PMTI went up huge on the FDA approval for an over the counter laser partnered with Johnny John. Even if you take the most optimistic assumptions from analysts that it could add $40 mil in revenues in 2010, the disparity doesn't make sense.

In the 'big ugly' category (my faves to trade) a long in HNZ at $36.32 and short in CL at $71.38 looks appealing. I am using a 2:1 ratio and expect this trade to eventually yield $6 in the differential.

With that, I will stop posting my ideas and cluttering up johnny's thread :)
 
Quote from jonnysharp:

yes I broke my rule on this trade and payed for it, spread chart wasn't nowhere near an extreme. I would be lying if I said it didn't hurt, because it does, but I really step back and look at the big picture, losses are inevitable in this game, you just gotta keep going, I try and treat my trading like a business where my losses are the running costs and my wins is the revenue, so long as your revenue outstrips your costs each quarter, your running a profitable business, its a numbers game, so in a way I welcome losses as part of doing business, im still crushing the averages since starting and Im still convinced my pair trading is the safest place to house my wealth. Been talking with Jared from PTF and he informs me exiting before the pair comes back to the mean with a time based stop is the way to go, he has be doing this manually in his own journal and he is absolutely killing it, with a 85% win rate or something crazy like that, he said in the next update due out soon we will be able to customize the exit with a time based stop, wish I had it earlier, would have saved me a bundle on this trade, anyway thats water under the bridge now, im focused on my trading going forward.
More...

Hi Jonny, do you care to share what time stops Jared uses and how he manage his positions with those stops?

Thanks
saico
 
I think he mentioned exiting within 1stdev of the mean and a 10 day time stop, although he uses a bit of discretionary on a case by case basis, I think this is where experience comes into play and you can use that to your advantage.

Note to everyone; your all welcome to post your trades and ideas in this journal, this isn't just for me, its for us all and Ive learnt a tremendous amount from other people and enjoy reading others trading ideas, so please, keep them coming.
 
Just exited my best trade to date for massive profits

Sold ZEUS @ 25.52 (bought this one at 16.51 for a 54.57% gain!)
Covered SIM @ 6.92

Very happy today, whats that quote off the yahoo website ''I love the smell of profits in the morning'' :D
 
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