Quote from JangoFolly:
Charles,
I did some testing on the ER2/YM pair (1:1 contract ratio) using intraday tick data (continuous contract) on a +/- 2 SDs from a 60 minute-period, 200 period SMA trigger over the period May 2004 through Sept 2005. It made several profitable trades, but the drawdowns were surprisingly ugly and eventually it took a trade that didn't return to the ratio SMA at entry by the end of the data series (open trade for 12 months). I had the system not take any trades in expiration months to avoid holding a trade at rollover, and to give my SMA indicator time to normalize after rollover. Do you think these two products are simply too dissimilar for this type of strategy? Were you using 1-min or EOD data (or other)?
Thank you.
Regards,
YES, ER2/YM is no different from taking a directional trade.