Painful Market Lessons

[TradeCat]

The only lesson here is that if you follow the advice of anonymous users posting about their made-up successes on an internet forum, you're going to end up broke.

Speculating on leveraged instruments like Futures, Options and Forex is the same as carrying your life's savings into a casino and asking other gamblers there if you'll make money.

 

[K-Pia]

well it's not for the working method (it's better than 50/50) and especially not for the one that does not work (its worse than 50/50), for people without the method (working or not) it's much much worse..


the blond was asked what are the probabilities that the dinosaur will come out from around the corner?
50/50 she said - it will either come out, or not...

I agree that the worst is No Method.
But one can win with 25% @ 4 to 1.
As one can lose with 75% @ 1 to 4.
The dinosaur comes out -> You die.
The dinosaur doesn't -> You're safe.
Do not gamble with your life ...
WTF ?! Just run away =D

 

[qxr1011]

The only lesson here is that if you follow the advice of anonymous users posting about their made-up successes on an internet forum, you're going to end up broke.

Speculating on leveraged instruments like Futures, Options and Forex is the same as carrying your life's savings into a casino and asking other gamblers there if you'll make money.

well any human's life is a gambling from the beginning to the end, most people just do not realize it...

 

[trader99]

see how many times i used word method?

and how many times did u use it?

zero...

because u have none or if u have it then u r not using it

the method for the trader as the pole for the tightrope walker: he never releases it, never...

you do not have a pole , therefor trying unsuccessfully to catch a wire on the way down...

so the big lesson for you should be - to use a pole (method) and never let it go !

I get what you are saying. I do have a method. If you have been reading my other threads I have finally turned the corner after all these years. I'm net profitable and have a relatively decent track record as tracked by FundSeeder. It's just that every once in a while I DEVIATE and DO NOT follow my methods at all! Not sure why? I know it's stupid, wrong, and not according to my methods and strategies. Then I go ahead on these wrongheaded, non-method trades that destroyed me. Then I build up again.

To be fair, some of these wrongheaded trades did refine my methods and I learn not to do those things. But still, this is a trade that I should have NOT taken or should have cut losses.

More so, I have buying dips and flipping it intraday and making nice $$. It was last Wednesday on travel for WORK and on a whim(???!!) I purchased by accident(fat fingers) a bunch of contracts without my methods and charts for entries. Because on travel I don't have the 4 monitors setup like I have at home to trade in the morning before work. Totally wrong. Then I stayed in for the ride. Bigger mistake. If it was a fat finger and it's a losing trade, then I should have gotten out ASAP even for a loss. Shoulda coulda woulda.

I'll never trade like that again. Unless it satisfies my entry conditions, I will not enter.

Today I made back some easy money. Not enough to recover. It's not like I can't make money. I consistently make money on more days and than not.

It's just once in a while I go out on a limb and get whipped. What is the psychological basis of that?

Without these stupid whimsical trades, I would be up HUGE. I'm still up for the year but gave back a lot..

 

[trader99]

My system have taken about dozen longs as it been going down, have no idea if it is bottom yet, just go with the flow. So long as you trade as far as your rules, you can't be thinking of failing, it part of the game, just business. I been trading Long term for so long now, I don't think much any more of losses or wins, goes up/down and so long as I continue to watch, I doubt anything will change, people don't change.

Monthly Wheat
View attachment 165831

Correct. My method said the same thing. But I have a problem following it every single time. When I do I make consistent money. Once a while I try to do something else outside those parameters, I get smacked hard! Why?!

 

[K-Pia]

It's called fallibility.

 

[trader99]

It's called fallibility.

That's too general. What might be the ROOT CAUSES of these fallibilities? Ed Seykota said "everyone gets what they want out of the market." Is there an inner voice that wants me to lose then rebuild then lose then rebuild? What's going on? Hmm..

 

[lawrence-lugar]

That's too general.
What might be the ROOT CAUSES of these fallibilities?
Ed Seykota said "everyone gets what they want out of the market."
Is there an inner voice

I don't want to sound like philosophical bs wisdom -- but you have to look inside yourself for the answers.

-- both in Trading and in life.
you can't have everything spelled out for you in black and white, and handed to you on a silver platter,

 

[Handle123]

Correct. My method said the same thing. But I have a problem following it every single time. When I do I make consistent money. Once a while I try to do something else outside those parameters, I get smacked hard! Why?!

I think we as humans, and even though we made our rules, we somehow forget we made the rules and we want to break them. We know trading system as it is, we become a robot, but what do you want out of the markets? Money or feel good? It is a Business like any other. Happiness comes when you away from trading, away from your office. I never have found happiness while I was trading, it is a risky way to make money.

 

[qxr1011]

What is the psychological basis of that?

i do not know if any trader is satisfied with his own method

there is always a feeling (usually a correct one) that something needs to be improved, polished, modernized, adjusted, readjusted, modified, etc etc... and the only way to do that is by pushing the limits of the method, trading beyond the rules.

that's why some of the out-of-the method trades that you took led you to method improvement... some not

so what to do? - trade any way you want, but before you trade ask yourself: " is this trade (from the beginning to the end) will be by the method or not?" if it will be by the method - you can trade real money, if it is not by the method - do it on paper...after enough paper-trades you will see what can be incorporated in the method (and what not)

i suspect that you will soon totally switch to paper , realizing how incomplete your method is...

that's ok