People tend to forget that LTCM had 7 years of tremendous profitability (lowest year was 42%, with very little volatility) before the liquidity trap took it down. The only thing LTCM did not account for was that by dominating the FI market, it was creating a liquidity risk for itself, that and over-leverage. LTCM was brilliant and arrogant (but at least they have 2 Nobel prize winners to be arrogant about). Give me an opportunity to work for LTCM (and I being around finance, large ibanks, large hedge funds, prop firms, etc), I would do it in a heartbeat. It is all about the opportunity to learn from some of the best minds in the business.
I don't understand why people are snippy about LTCM, it is easy to say they were wrong *after* they went down. From my perspective, it is not about BS, these guys are real, and real good in what they do, they took a shot (based on well established financial theories at the time), and failed, so what?
I don't understand why people think finance theory is BS. That's like a couple of kids who graduated from Lincoln Tech / DeVry in bicycle mechanic school being snippy about Boeing building airplanes. "Yeah, look at that Boeing 777 planes crashed, but my little tricycle didn't. So they *must* be all BS artists". It is true that the Boeing airplane engineers may have missed one or two critical considerations (in hindsight, 20/20), but they took a calculated risk.
Look, I hate the slimmy relationship aspect of Wall street as much as anybody else, but that's the *nature of the business*. I didn't like it, so I dropped out and is now trading for myself. But the reality is that while there are plenty of BS artists in any business (wall street, prop trading, market making, etc), there are plenty of good and real people in any business. I admire Steve Galbraith's guts as much as any of the traders I have seen, he predicted the 2000 doom well ahead of it, when all of us are singing in the "New Economy" choir. That takes guts and good belief in his analysis, that gets my respect by my book.
Try to give respect when respect is due, it helps sometimes. Always be suspicious is probably a good rule of thumb, but don't be snippy.
Quote from swcom:
Yeah, I am sure that is what the college catalog said: "Financial Statement Analysis Type Stuff 301 - Upon completion of this course, students will possess the ability to look at a financial statement and analyze the data therein. Special emphasis on the use of parentheses and how to trim a balance sheet - SEC style. Futhermore, the successful student will gain a comprehensive working knowledge of the basic analysis of the goings on, haberdashery, and general bolshoi that is needed to dicatate, generate, obstrate, pontificate, and defenestrate the needed stuff that every M.B.A needs to be successful in the business community".
Seriously, you're a good B.S.'er - You should check out Long-Term Capital Management - They are desperately looking for new traders!