Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

No doubt that buying bad news works best as a micro play when participants are leaning short or when the news is contrary to the LT trend. This new fangled joblessness is not a blip, it's the future. Inflation + unemployment = deep problems for government, consumer spending, consumption and hence profits. Bernanke should be shot. Forecasting the recession was a no brainer. We can live through low inflation slowdowns. Allowing inflation to galavant in the face of emerging job loss though is criminal. Now all we have is a free falling real estate market with consumer costs through the roof. Food riots is the headline of to-morrow.

Currency traders seem to be the only ones viewing this data as the death it truly is. Savvy bunch those FX guy's. This economy is heading toward crisis and its becoming apparent that just like Japan's woes in the 90's had little global spillover-few others are in our present soup.
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Pabst , i don't know this for a fact but it smells like ben had no other choice, i think the powers that be and the lobbyists who manage what the powers that b decide, bent the powers that b over and gave it to them good, now the powers that b are trying their best to cover up this royal hemerhoid and dig their way out, all the while covering up the crime that was just commited, this has happened before and will happen again, and we will survive, trick is when they get us suckered in this far it's hard not to linger there and sell us a whole carload of bibles
 
Hi,

very nice journal.

EUR LT uptrend, ok. Couple days ago Germany reported quite strong job numbers, EUR didn't move much. Friday's US job numbers came in quite weak, EUR rallied only a little. Would think that two such reports would see a stronger EUR rise, esp. in a bull market. Media, comments etc. very bullish.

Price not responding to bullish news but daily chart looks like continuation pattern. What do you people make of this?
 
Luck and useless observations. I came in short ES. Nothing major-just sold 'em yesterday before the close, i.e. way off the days high. This morning I thought "hey minor windfall". What did I do? I covered. On the lows. And I had buyers remorse for a few minutes. Yet it was the right play. It just shows the disconnect between expectations, actions and outcomes. It's impossible to ignore the randomness of that next dice roll.....
 
Really nice journal... Pabst, would you dare post your performance YTD( % ) in all this "doom and gloom"?

Thank a lot... Keep it going...:)
 
While I'm typing...

I've tried to stay on ET as much as possible today so I don't do something stupid like sell Oil, Gold or Euro's. :)

What I want to do though is sell stocks but location all day has been iffy. Alas I've made a couple of small scalps from the short side but each downtick with me now flat is like a dagger in my heart.

Sentiment is VERY tricky. Message board posters (I moniter many sites) is bearish. P/C ratios though show emerging call buyers. Usually negative. So I'm a bit sidelined.
 
I'm short both ZB and ES from pre number. I think at least one of them should work. :)

The dollar and the yield curve say the same: Economic weakness continues to trump inflation in policy going forward. As stocks break the front end of the curve rallies on air. Even with core prices rising in Argentinean fashion the credit markets and currencies would rather err on the side of further Fed foolery.

I have no prognosis here. Stocks could be in quasi-crash mode or they could just once again be at the bottom of their trading range. Bonds could be ready to wake up to stark reality-American policy (on EVERY level) is out of control-or rally right back on economic weakness. I'll turn Treasury strength into long 10's short 30's and I'll cover stocks on anything more than a 6pt rally from any new swing low.
 
BTW: I swapped my ES shorts for NQ (I hate trading that contract) 31's in ES vs. 92.50's NQ. Tech will be the more reluctant bull candidate today. I think.:)
 
I don't see any high prob set ups today. I'll sell Bonds if they can do something dramatic like trade higher on the day. Stocks? Currencies? I'd rather be a seller in those also but not on a trend day up........
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I don't see any high prob set ups today. I'll sell Bonds if they can do something dramatic like trade higher on the day. Stocks? Currencies? I'd rather be a seller in those also but not on a trend day up........
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I missed those bond shorts yesterday by a 32nd and watching them break 2 full points since has been a life ruining experience.

I'll give ET one last free tip. You know how sometimes (most times lately) when stocks break Treasuries rally? Well usually that means you should look to buy stocks because differentials between equities and interest rates are mean reverting. Right now is the opposite. The fact that Treasuries weaken even when stocks are down ticking tells me that any stock rally will be muted in the micro.
 
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