Wheat has been crazy. Some of locals who got crushed last year in the back month spreads are probably making a lot back.
Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
Weirdly, in 25 years of trading, I had NEVER traded a Wheat contract until yesterday. I'm partial to Corn and Soybeans. During most of my career at the CBOT, Wheat was a relatively lower volume market.
I came in long 10 Corn along with some call spreads so I was on guard against a break. When I saw Wheat start to come in I opened up a trading screen for it and sold 10 lots. I had a hard time getting filled. The book is like 3 by 3 at the bid/offer, lol. I had a nickel profit in minutes so I did the prudent thing. I sold 10 more. The add didn't work so I bought those back for a quick two cent loss and then all of a sudden Wheat ran 20 cents in like four minutes! I thought a report or something must have come out. It was unbelievable. My Corn didn't hardly budge. I paid ridiculous prices to get out (I was concerned about being stuck short July if it went up limit). I then put them back out again at shit levels and kept it on as a Corn-Wheat spread. Today certainly helped.
Pa(b)st, is approaching your level to sell again the ZB?
Hey guy's. Sorry for not keeping up but I'm trading so much during the day it's hard. Yes I'm short again but I took 75k in heat on Tuesday. I'm overtrading and sloppy.
I don't know when Bonds are going to break again. One fractal I'm using suggests several weeks of chop on the lower end of the range. I'm working a buy stop tonight so that I don't get too whipped around down here.
In the past two weeks I also took a major shot by adding to my Corn longs and sold Wheat against them as Corn was coming off it's 4.28 high. I'm getting annihilated on this trade. I've traded so many grain contracts the past week and a half (two million bushels a day) that I'm having a hard time figuring out what's bond p/l and what's Corn. I'm probably 40k down from the Corn highs on Monday. My work say's that this Wheat move is the same as last October and that soon (maybe tonights the trigger with WZ -8, CZ -1) Wheat will drift lower while Corn explodes. Obviously the dry weather in the eastern part of the Midwest will be the impetus. I'm hoping......
Jeez the life of a speculator. I'm "hoping" for a drought that destroys crops, ruins lives, causes rising food prices and spreads famine and hunger. But I'm a nice guy. Really!
So did you cover your shorts?... if not, which is you average price load?
I'm short at an average of around 107.04.
I'm also nervous. Yes I'm quite cognizant of last years similar price action. The Bund has also made it's annual 14-16pt move although it decisively took out last years lows. Both Europe and America could be bottoming. I'm also worried about bearish sentiment. Most everyone seems to think rates must climb on commodity strength. And it's easy to envision a jarring flight to quality price jolt vis a vis a stock market that suddenly fades easy off the rallies.
I'll try to sleep for a while tonight with some hard stops in place. I'm leaning on the 34 day EMA which coincides with channel resistance.
I'm more than a bit freaked out by my grain trading. Suicidal is a word that comes close to the feeling. I take some solace in that my Corn and wheat losses could've been worse but just the same it sux. Fortunately my Cotton which I was long until Thursday mitigated about a quarter of my losses in Corn. The God awful randomness of selecting which trade will explode vs which will fill is mind boggling.
I'm also nervous. Yes I'm quite cognizant of last years similar price action. The Bund has also made it's annual 14-16pt move although it decisively took out last years lows. Both Europe and America could be bottoming. I'm also worried about bearish sentiment. Most everyone seems to think rates must climb on commodity strength. And it's easy to envision a jarring flight to quality price jolt vis a vis a stock market that suddenly fades easy off the rallies.
I'll try to sleep for a while tonight with some hard stops in place. I'm leaning on the 34 day EMA which coincides with channel resistance.
I'm more than a bit freaked out by my grain trading. Suicidal is a word that comes close to the feeling. I take some solace in that my Corn and wheat losses could've been worse but just the same it sux. Fortunately my Cotton which I was long until Thursday mitigated about a quarter of my losses in Corn. The God awful randomness of selecting which trade will explode vs which will fill is mind boggling.
Pabst,
Were you able to keep those ZBs short above the 108 handle.. and take a bit of profits today or...did you get stopped meanwhile?
Were you able to keep those ZBs short above the 108 handle.. and take a bit of profits today or...did you get stopped meanwhile?
I got stopped on half at 108.01 and in turn was unable trying to put that portion back out on the move high at 108.06. I had my order there for a very specific reason and thought it was a marketable price. My work suggested an 07 or 08 print was needed to complete the rally. Costly freakin' tick!
My Corn position is inhibiting my risk tolerance in Bonds.
I dare not even publish how many Corn futures I'm holding. I have a good reason to think Corn made a swing low on Tuesday. Most lows in Corn don't provide liftoff the next day. I expect to see these lower end prices for at least one more session.
It's a weather market. The forecasts over the next week call for some precipitation during the remainder of pollination but some areas are getting quite dry.
Wheat vs. Corn is truly apples and oranges but the spread between the two Dec contracts is now Wheat 2.75 over Corn. Unreal.