Wow. The day finally arrived. I think we are in for a perfect storm. The rise in rates is also going to cause problems in the carrry trade. Notice the yen is holding its own.
Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
Pa(b)st Prime,
Is there any level where do you plan to re-enter short w/ ZBs according to your long term scenario?
Yes there is although at this moment I'm naked long 50 ZF.
I'm prepared to drop 25k on these fives although I'm trying to milk them the best I can. I got out of them yesterday afternoon at a few different prices in the high 103 teens. I then got smashed off my rocker last night and came back this morning and got back in at 103.13 and a half. (well off that European low
. If not in revenge trade mode I wouldn't have bought the market but this is where I am. I hate trading counter trend in a trend that I believe in 
but I'm full of emotional weakness. I learned a really BIG lesson about WHY trend following is a superior method in times (markets) like these. So let me get flat and then we'll examine new shorts. I'm hoping the following: today's selloff in metals and energies quells inflation fears for a day or 2. B. The rally in stocks actually brings in buyers into Treasuries (counter intuitive thought here) because the index bounce at least proves we're not in some global free fall, panic. That's coming. For sure. Hopefully it's not Monday though.
Ok, I should have done this a long time ago and stop by your thread. I' apologize.
What did you think of the Belmont? How's it going in general?
Do you think the S&P has hit an intermediate term wall at this severe double top looking formation ?
What did you think of the Belmont? How's it going in general?
Do you think the S&P has hit an intermediate term wall at this severe double top looking formation ?
I sent you a PM on my lack of nerve regarding Rags to Riches.
Naturally I hate stocks. And I do think there's a bonanza trade being short. I'm waiting for the 4th quarter though. IMO, those huge late year rallies (SPX has been up Q4 vs. Q3 every year except 2000 since 1994) are going to cease THIS year. Of course I thought that in 2006 which is why I'm now a Corn trader...
If I see anyone giving you guff around here Bro, I've got your back!
Quote from PORNSTAR69371:
Hey Pabst awesome journal, you peaked my interest in futures, on top of buzzy's book
I have trade stocks for a long time but would like to learn to leverage my money in the futurues market for some swing/long term(i.e. more than 5 minute =)holds.
I was wondering a couple things, is there any where i can go to find out how certain futures contracts are leveraged, as well as what a tick is worth per contract?
i.e. where can i find the tick increments, as well as the different contracts?
Also what would be a good start for charting, and where do you think would be the best broker?
thx in advance and keep up the journal!
P.S. dont waste Pabst's journal by telling me about the use of leverage i have traded for a while and know what im doing.
The CBOT's website contains a plethora of info. I highly recommend you spend time there. If you have specific questions don't hesitate to send me a PM.
One thought about stocks. I don't know if last week's break was telling or Friday's strength telling. One thing I am sure of. (and I don't use the word sure in many sentences about trading ) volatility is going to increase. Both ways. We've already seen how the up moves off swing lows can possess incredible prowess. IMO on a more day to day basis we'll see SPX ranges approaching 1%. Prices this high incur radical two sided opinions by traders.
As we've seen in Treasuries': when institutions, i.e. long term participants (the real deal supply/demand wise) decide it's time to reallocate because of fundamental shifts in perception then Katie bar the door. As short term buyers realize they're getting hit too easily then they too become sellers. And the option guy's who're short gamma come a calling and at some point folks become awfully tick insensitive about the price they're puking out at. You'll see some condo auctions a couple of years from now that'll show the process. True dislocation. Shit happens. Every few decades.
A continued rally in stocks through summer as the bond market continues it's meltdown is my gun to the head prediction. Followed by a 20% decline August through the end of the year.
As we've seen in Treasuries': when institutions, i.e. long term participants (the real deal supply/demand wise) decide it's time to reallocate because of fundamental shifts in perception then Katie bar the door. As short term buyers realize they're getting hit too easily then they too become sellers. And the option guy's who're short gamma come a calling and at some point folks become awfully tick insensitive about the price they're puking out at. You'll see some condo auctions a couple of years from now that'll show the process. True dislocation. Shit happens. Every few decades.
A continued rally in stocks through summer as the bond market continues it's meltdown is my gun to the head prediction. Followed by a 20% decline August through the end of the year.
I hope you're right bro. I'm short up the ass and not digging this rally at all.
I bought Bonds against a 10year short position on a 1-2 basis. Getting freaking killed on marks. I want to lift the Bonds. I'm offered at 13,14,15.
Plus long puts. I'm sure you know the story there......
The only good thing is I'm long Corn after the adventure of paying up to roll those 400 Jul calls and short Wheat a dime lower. I think Corn is going to gain a dollar to Wheat over the next month. Look at the action of those two markets last Oct/Nov and tell me what you think.