Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

[JamesVU2000]

Hopefully something is going to change. I'm so tired of watching low yields, carry trades that never seem to get pummeled, and a bulletproof stockmarket. I'm amazed how entrenched the current global financial system has become. Much of which can be explained by governments, not the private sector.

For all the talk about China no one seems to talk about Nasdaq PE being 35 and russell being 45! Those aren't bargains.

 

[PORNSTAR69371]

Hey Pabst awesome journal, you peaked my interest in futures, on top of buzzy's book

I have trade stocks for a long time but would like to learn to leverage my money in the futurues market for some swing/long term(i.e. more than 5 minute =)holds.

I was wondering a couple things, is there any where i can go to find out how certain futures contracts are leveraged, as well as what a tick is worth per contract?

i.e. where can i find the tick increments, as well as the different contracts?



Also what would be a good start for charting, and where do you think would be the best broker?

thx in advance and keep up the journal!

P.S. dont waste Pabst's journal by telling me about the use of leverage i have traded for a while and know what im doing.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from JamesVU2000:


For all the talk about China no one seems to talk about Nasdaq PE being 35 and russell being 45! Those aren't bargains.

Nice call on those p/e's. I've been at best only a casual observer of stocks this year (although I NAILED Feb. 27 in NQ but not in ZB, lol). I had no idea. Here it is though:

http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/peratio.asp?symbol=Q&selected=Q

Me thinks that anticipated trail never sees the kitchen....

 

[ajna]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

At the end of the day it's almost ALL luck. Only fools or newbies will deny that. It's all about having the bet down those too few times when you can really nail one. It's ironic but you were probably slowing down after a good year while I was FORCED pedal to the metal year end because of some wayward index shorts. I threw a dart and hit Corn and Bonds.

In 1989, 1995 and 2003 I took on huge short positions in various debt derivatives and lost much of what I had. So as I've shown, even a broken clock......

Pabst, I'm enjoying your journal, and congrats on last month's return. I especially enjoy the honest assessment of your last few posts. Seems like trading successfully is first and foremost about survival.

st

 

[dhpar]

Quote from JamesVU2000:

For all the talk about China no one seems to talk about Nasdaq PE being 35 and russell being 45! Those aren't bargains.

market does not care much about actual earnings. it makes more sense to judge market richness/cheapness based on earnings estimates (last column in the attachment).
Cheers

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

I'm doing something today that I used to do often years ago.

I'm long 50 ZF (5 yr) at 104.02. Duration weighted I'm still net short (S 20 ZB) but the curve seems like it wants to steepen a tad on the index break. I'm not going to milk these 5's but a few ticks will come in handy. If stocks catch a bid I'll unwind.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I'm doing something today that I used to do often years ago.

I'm long 50 ZF (5 yr) at 104.02. Duration weighted I'm still net short (S 20 ZB) but the curve seems like it wants to steepen a tad on the index break. I'm not going to milk these 5's but a few ticks will come in handy. If stocks catch a bid I'll unwind.

Note: 20 ZB is currently equal to 51 ZF - so you are rather flat...

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from dhpar:

Note: 20 ZB is currently equal to 51 ZF - so you are rather flat...

Actually you're correct. I use 3-1 in my head but the actual adjustment (I think) is 2.6-1

So I'm short a 2 lot, lol.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

B 5 ZB at 108.11. Still short 15 ZB and long 50 ZF.

I'm not bullish but this is a level that I certainly want to be a bit pro-active monitoring. I have no quarrel with spending some money here for protection.

Just a thought but I noticed commodity prices did not slide in sympathy with stocks the past two days the way they did on Feb. 27. Gold, Crude and Grains are hanging tough. Hence I see the poss bounce in Treasuries as shallow and short lived. For a trade I'd much rather be long Bobl's or Bunds than the U.S. 5yr. against these Bonds. We'll see.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Talk about f***ing myself out of an extra 30K!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just covered S15 ZB 106.23 for a profit of 33k plus the thou I made on the 5 I took off yesterday.

The bad part is I'm long 50 ZF that I'm down 25k on.

I'll hold them for a bounce.