Everytime I would like to short 200 bonds I am reminded of this
China On track to add $500b to its reserves in 2007, heading toward $2 trillion fast â¦
Brad Setser | Apr 13, 2007 Please allow me a bit of latitude. China wonât add $500b to its reserves in 2007 for the simple reason that the central bank will some of its reserves to the state investment company. Moreover, China might opt to ship some of its spare dollars over to the banks. But rather than spell those qualifications out, I am going to talk of âreserves.â
There is just no way to get around the fact that China bought a ton of foreign exchange in the first quarter. Its reserves went up $135b in the quarter â topping its previous record quarter ($85 or so in q4 04). Only about $5b of the increase came from valuation gains v. $20b or so in late 2004, so China actually bought a lot more fx in the market now than then -- $130b v $75b (by my estimates). $130b in a quarter works out to $520b for a year.
To paraphrase Macro Man â who is almost as reserve-obsessed as I am â China accrues foreign exchange reserve faster than Britney Spears accrues tabloid headlines.
Jon Anderson of UBS is more measured, but he still wrote:
.. "We're shocked. From trend reserve growth of around $20b a month in 2006, January, February and March rolled in at nearly US$50b a month, or $140b for the first quarter as a whole. This is more than just a jump. The magnitude and abruptness of the acceleration are simply stunning."