Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

Quote from atticus:

Vols are coming in on this reduction in ATR/Distro.
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Obviously my perma bullishness kept me from selling those pumped calls.

As you know though I got cuffed by hesitating at a couple of critical junctures and the market sliding off on me. Sux.

Likewise risk there were good opps on May ratios on the put side. Granted the put skew isn't what the calls are but something like a cheap 370-350 ratio had great potential. Particularly for someone who would gladly buy 350's, eh?
 
S 10 ZB @ 110.21
(short 20 ZB, L 10 CN, 5 CK, L 10 SK, S 5 SK 780p)

Selling more Bonds is VERY counter my intuition. I think Bonds may explode yet I'm adding to a short that's a point and a half in the money.

I'll have a tight stop.

The whole world is talking recession today.

The market is more than a bit concerned about claims.

On the other hand a continued weak dollar, stubbornly strong Crude and Gold and soaring global equity markets do little to assuage concerns about inflation.

My crystal ball says the paradigm is shifting.

The Bond is no longer being supported by various carry trades. Asian Central Banks have been lightning up into dollar-Yen strength. IMO Treasuries from 2001-2006 were unique in that fundamentals didn't matter. The Bond became valuable as an instrument devoid of risk premium.

Bonds have a new truth.

Price inflation once again matters. Deficits once again matter. The dollar once again matters.
 
You won't benefit from skew, but you may want to sell a bear-straddle to get some premium while maintaining the bull position.

Selling single calls on rallies until you reach = quantity on you futures. Converging to a synthetic put struck at the call strike sold. The upside is a large net credit on the synthetic put.
 
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