Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades
- Thread starter Pa(b)st Prime
- Start date
Do you know there's about 4 different macro-measurements projecting that area?
That's gonna be put up or shut up. I've got something at 1133 NDX too.
In the time I've been working on this post I've been trading. I'm long oil and (5734/57.95 jan) and covered a short hedge ES. I'm not an oil futures trader (long FRO for another account) so I'll replace these CL longs with ES longs.
I'm BULLISH ! Big time. Can the market break more? Down to fuck you 1994 prices? Yep. On this trip though? I don't see it. No super-super immediate catalysts. I've empirically seen some real estate strength too. I'm not predicting any time of perma bottom. Just a tradable bottom. In this volatility tradable bottoms can be 20% rallies. I'll KEENLY watch sentiment. Sitting tight is key. ES can break 50 handles from here and still be in my buy zone so I'll need to accept crappy ST drawdowns. Looking at spreads too.
I'm BULLISH ! Big time. Can the market break more? Down to fuck you 1994 prices? Yep. On this trip though? I don't see it. No super-super immediate catalysts. I've empirically seen some real estate strength too. I'm not predicting any time of perma bottom. Just a tradable bottom. In this volatility tradable bottoms can be 20% rallies. I'll KEENLY watch sentiment. Sitting tight is key. ES can break 50 handles from here and still be in my buy zone so I'll need to accept crappy ST drawdowns. Looking at spreads too.
I just puked my CL. I can't define my risk the way I'd like and a 10k loss is all I needed to wake me up. I woulda, coulda, shoulda had it back on index longs-I buy them great every day and night but alas I look for a bit too much and my stops get hit. I'm long a few ES at 832.75 with an 812.75 stop. Maybe three's the charm.
I'll stick for now with the index for new plays.
The market obviously trades sloppy but until 813-815 trades out I'm more inclined to buy weakness than sell strength. Pure r/r consideration. I know where to lose longs I don't have solid low risk levels for shorts.
No opinion on the dollar.
Inflation trades are crowded. When an ET "Hyperinflation" thread generates 8 zillion views it doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling to buy commodities. At least now. The inflation trade could take two years to manifest itself.
Bonds are just an inverse index trade. Rather be short than long but I can't remember my last winning Bond short. The best interest rate trader I know thinks Long Bond yields are headed to 10% but expects the breakout to be 18 months away.
I hold out some chance that stocks are headed significantly lower. Below 500 SPX. It's not going to happen all at once though so a wide range of 815-1050 is what I'm expecting over the next several months.
I'll stick for now with the index for new plays.
The market obviously trades sloppy but until 813-815 trades out I'm more inclined to buy weakness than sell strength. Pure r/r consideration. I know where to lose longs I don't have solid low risk levels for shorts.
No opinion on the dollar.
Inflation trades are crowded. When an ET "Hyperinflation" thread generates 8 zillion views it doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling to buy commodities. At least now. The inflation trade could take two years to manifest itself.
Bonds are just an inverse index trade. Rather be short than long but I can't remember my last winning Bond short. The best interest rate trader I know thinks Long Bond yields are headed to 10% but expects the breakout to be 18 months away.
I hold out some chance that stocks are headed significantly lower. Below 500 SPX. It's not going to happen all at once though so a wide range of 815-1050 is what I'm expecting over the next several months.
I just doubled up on longs. Long 3 more at 857.25. Stop on 6 844.00
Jumped the gun getting out. 850.25.
Nice exit yesterday.
Back long 60pts lower than there.
Lightly (3 lot) at 786 and 1 more at 802.
A MULTI-MONTH bottom was made today.
Wish I had more on but Pabst gets chicken too.....
Back long 60pts lower than there.
Lightly (3 lot) at 786 and 1 more at 802.
A MULTI-MONTH bottom was made today.
Wish I had more on but Pabst gets chicken too.....
BTW: This kind of whippy up-down action like today is BULLISH. You can't rally without WASHING, WASHING and WASHING out longs. This is why when picking bottoms you must TRADE SMALL.
Being smart enough to buy the low day (if this truly is) but then being STOPPED OUT on the low day is detrimental to a traders mental health.
Being smart enough to buy the low day (if this truly is) but then being STOPPED OUT on the low day is detrimental to a traders mental health.
And wear gloves.
I have good enough support that I'll hang long. My goal? Not to lose 20k to-morrow. I don't like this position and I feel out of whack. I'm sure we all do. The uncommon and unknown. It wears.
Position sizing is often a double edged sword. I wanted to guy 3 more this morning at 79 to make me L 6. I If I had I'm sure I would've been happy enough with the profit to sell some above 815. Instead with only 3 on I didn't feel rewarded enough so I bought another one the way down. Now I'm stuck. As I type we're trading up-means nothing-just one in a series of dice rolls.....
Thank GOODNESS I'm not short Treasuries.
Position sizing is often a double edged sword. I wanted to guy 3 more this morning at 79 to make me L 6. I If I had I'm sure I would've been happy enough with the profit to sell some above 815. Instead with only 3 on I didn't feel rewarded enough so I bought another one the way down. Now I'm stuck. As I type we're trading up-means nothing-just one in a series of dice rolls.....
Thank GOODNESS I'm not short Treasuries.