Pabst's Blue Ribbon Trades

BTW: Any of you noticed Cotton's plunge? How freakin' key that I blew off that long campaign!! Pabst would be hurtin. I puked CT within hours of CNBC running a story on how Cotton was the next bull in commodity world. Not that I'm cynical, mind you......

You ever hear the old saying "those who try to pick bottoms wind up picking cotton"?

I may be bottom picking to-morrow. If I'd been by the screen I'd already own some CTN7..... I love the "48" handle.
 
I bought 1 July Cotton at 50.10. I'll add on further weakness or strength.

I don't like longs when there's severe contango. I should probably sell calls against futures. Believe it or not Cotton options are pretty liquid.
 
To say this is going to be a crappy day for the Pabster is a gross understatement.

For now I'm sitting tight although I did pay 111.12 for 1 ZB. Short 12. Long Corn and Beans and a wee bit of Cotton.
 
The only other trade I made today was paying 111.27 for 2 more bonds. I need to get smaller.

To make matters worse I chickened out on shorting indices this morning as a hedge against my bonds. (I presumed if stocks broke they would keep the bond rally in place)

In grains I have a crummy problem. I'm close to losing my long bean delta's as beans finally try to catch up with Corn which I'm long and getting little out of.
 
Better to be undisciplined than not. I agonized over whether to cover or not my short Bonds up at 112. CV was the market couldn't stop there forever. It was ultimately a matter of wanting to add higher not cover higher. The Bond market though is stuck.

Think about it: the definition, the litmus test so to speak of a "dead" market is the inability to take out support/resistance.
As opposed to a "choppy" market which fades on lack of follow through through minute penetrations of S/R.

I still think the next move in Bonds is sharply lower. I am OF COURSE concerned that the market's ignorance to obvious global inflation will be a MASSIVE buy signal when the world inevitably slows down.

The short trade in Bonds seems really crowded. Entirely possible though is that the long positions in the short end of the curve are equally crowded. Which could spell further yield inversion.

I'm fine in grains but I was so freaked by yesterdays bond rally I neglected something important on my "do-do" list which was to turn my covered long in beans into a synthetic back spread. We'll see. I don't know yet if Beans deserve to be bought on intermediate (at best) strength.
 
Twenty years ago countries used tariffs to protect industries, now they just manipulate interest rate and currency markets. Same result. How much slower can the dollar decline? Its like a global Japaneese PKO operation.
 
My attention has been away from the market recently but I've covered 4 of my 10 Bond shorts at 111.19.

Yesterday I qued up a stop at that price (after the 111.12 low) but forgot to "transmit" the order. It's been many moons since I've made that particular mistake. It turned out fine but Jeez that could have been costly.

I'm probably being stubborn with these Bond shorts but they're a part of my life. Since December there's only been ONE night I can think of that I was flat Bonds.

Grains are cool and in Cotton I bought 2 July at 48.20. (now long 3)

Positions: S 6 ZB, L 3 CT, L 10 SN, S 10 SM 750c, L 10 CN, S 10 CN 4.00c, L 15 CN 4.10 calls.
 
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