Pabst : questions regarding Pit trading

Quote from Pabst:
As a rule of thumb I'd say many locals only averaged a dollar or two per contract traded over the course of a year! Take Baldwin for example. Let's say in a given year he'd make 8 million. He'd trade 10,000-20,000 a side each day. That's perhaps three million contracts per year. Member rates on the floor were around a dime after the obligatory 30k a year commission cutoff. So yea 4 ticks is HUGE. Because of commissions and fifo, it's very difficult to even have a positive expectancy on the screen, let alone average 4 ticks per day. Obviously though, if one has a method that allows shallow drawdowns then making just a few ticks per day on average while trading size can make one quite wealthy.

Interesting, I was never a floor trader, being mostly an upstairs quant and all. But to give some context in today's automated systems. An automated system that does 10,000-20,000 a side today is not that big (probably considered "medium"), I know of 2-3 systems that averages 150,000 a side a day (maybe pushing 300k on a busy day like 6/8), or about 3M contracts per month. The going rate for automated system is about 3-5 cents, I have seen as low as 1 cent (not me). I walked to the 10 year pit the other day to talk to somebody I haven't talked to for a long time, and I stuck around for the open, there was literally no paper activity, everyone is staring at their screens. I thought, these guys might as well be in an office then.
 
During rollover there's still a bit of spread activity on the floor but the number of outrights traded is rapidly plunging to zero.....
Quote from rufus_4000:

Interesting, I was never a floor trader, being mostly an upstairs quant and all. But to give some context in today's automated systems. An automated system that does 10,000-20,000 a side today is not that big (probably considered "medium"), I know of 2-3 systems that averages 150,000 a side a day (maybe pushing 300k on a busy day like 6/8), or about 3M contracts per month. The going rate for automated system is about 3-5 cents, I have seen as low as 1 cent (not me). I walked to the 10 year pit the other day to talk to somebody I haven't talked to for a long time, and I stuck around for the open, there was literally no paper activity, everyone is staring at their screens. I thought, these guys might as well be in an office then.
 
Quote from NickBarings:

Pabst,




How crowded,empty are those pits now ?


The fact that Rick Santelli is having an increasingly hard time finding a live pit to hang out says it all.......
 
Quote from rufus_4000:

Interesting, I was never a floor trader, being mostly an upstairs quant and all. But to give some context in today's automated systems. An automated system that does 10,000-20,000 a side today is not that big (probably considered "medium"), I know of 2-3 systems that averages 150,000 a side a day (maybe pushing 300k on a busy day like 6/8), or about 3M contracts per month. The going rate for automated system is about 3-5 cents, I have seen as low as 1 cent (not me). I walked to the 10 year pit the other day to talk to somebody I haven't talked to for a long time, and I stuck around for the open, there was literally no paper activity, everyone is staring at their screens. I thought, these guys might as well be in an office then.

Rufus, could you elaborate on how you think these systems are working, because it seems now that most markets have these automated systems now.

Do you think the systems are mostly in house systems from goldmans etc, or are you seeing big locals using them.

thanks

snap
 
Quote from Pabst:

Let me start out 89 by saying that in financial futures i.e. markets that have absolute levels of arbitrage to underlying cash markets, there's rarely or never a case of locals "running stops." Pure myth. In Pork Bellies circa 1975 or Sugar circa 2006, yes. In Bonds, S&P's or currencies, impossible. If we knew there were sell stops underneath we'd never be able to offer below fair value to the Long Bond (30 year cash) without arbs (Primary Dealers) lifting us.

my own experience does not agree with this 100%

many times i saw money market futures (short sterling & euribor - like eurodollars) trade way past any concept of fair value. we still see this today on the screen and pit in any financial futures market on report times. perhaps why you say 'rarely'?

other times i would see it happen around lunch times or other quiet times. sometimes it happens when its busy.

at the end of the day, its about who has the most bunce.

arb players get fucked too you know!
 
Quote from John47:

its not totally the same on the screen but its the same concepts. Your trying to see what paper is actually doing and be on the right side, you read order flow like pabst said to know when a shit load of your friends are stuck long or short, and take advantage of the push when they're forced to blast out. Thats the game.

Forex you could never do this, at least from what I understand about forex. Too much of it is keyed on reading order flow, be it paper orders or other locals. Like pabst said, and something that is talked about alot on this board, its all about your edge. The edge with guys like, say, Baldwin, that scalp very liquid stuff like treasuries is that they trade when they have a very high probability of being able to scratch when they're wrong, and be out nothing but fees.

there is probably more stop running in fx (and i mean the spot market not bucket shops - where there is far more) than any other market. and they say fx is the most liquid market in the world (i dont agree with that btw) - so according to the common theory, the more liquid the market, the harder it is to run stops. obviously not.

the bigger the market, the higher the stakes.

market gunna getchya!
 
Don't misconstrue Fred. I never said that markets can't trade beyond fair value. If they didn't there wouldn't be much trade, eh? What I said is locals don't push markets beyond fair value in search of stops. There's easier money than selling something that you know will be bid aggressively. On top of it, brokers don't have to execute those stops. Nothing makes a floor broker look like a bigger hero to his customer than telling a desk "I did nothing on your sell stop at 4" as the market comes back 6 bid.

As far as arbs getting fucked, not often enough. John Corzine was the long bond trader at Goldman, Dick Fuld at Lehman. Each are worth a half billion today. No locals can make that claim......
Quote from FredBloggs:

my own experience does not agree with this 100%

many times i saw money market futures (short sterling & euribor - like eurodollars) trade way past any concept of fair value. we still see this today on the screen and pit in any financial futures market on report times. perhaps why you say 'rarely'?

other times i would see it happen around lunch times or other quiet times. sometimes it happens when its busy.

at the end of the day, its about who has the most bunce.

arb players get fucked too you know!
 
Quote from Pabst:

The fact that Rick Santelli is having an increasingly hard time finding a live pit to hang out says it all.......

Eurodollars are still rockin'

In the back outrights and bundles screen volume doesn't even compare to pit
 
Quote from ig0r:

Eurodollars are still rockin'

In the back outrights and bundles screen volume doesn't even compare to pit


Today he was camped out in the Euro opts......
 
Quote from Pabst:

Today he was camped out in the Euro opts......

We rarely have cnbc on with sound but I've seen him down here a couple times already, usually with a hot intern or a guy making funny faces in the background :P
 
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