p/l thread 2007 skeptics and detractors

I actually feel bad for people who start trading and can not figure out how to meet up with anyone successful around them. I can personally vouch for alot of the numbers on p/l 2007, most specifically lescor(as i have met him personally), and it will never cease to amaze me that most of those who think it is not possible will inevitably end up failing as traders, while those who ask themselves what they got to do to get there will end up big successes.

If you do not think it is possible you will never get there.

When i first started at swift in stoon, i was only the third trader in our office to do over a k in a day, and the office had been open for over a year before my start, today there are many traders there who average higher than that on a daily basis, i remember vividly 2 of us in the firm shattering our daily records, and as we would do it everyone woud step up and then break our records, because it became a reality once someone did it once. If you assume it is impossible you will never do it.

How about instead of questioning their pnl you ask them questions about how they do it?? Most of the people who make alot of money on this site are far more approachable then you would assume and while they may not give an idea of their strategy you will certainly get an idea of their mindset. Or else use it for motivation my mindset was always "goddammit if he can do it why cant I?"

Anyways.... just my thoughts.
 
funny thing NYSeKiller...

You cost me like 20 grand last august...

See the thing is, I totally believed your #'s, because I know those kinds of #'s are attainable. So I began experimenting heavily with various trading methods... and I went in big and fearless... anyways, I had like 5 losing days in a row and all fairly substantial, I think the total was 20,000$...

I'm wasn't pissed at your or anything like that, it's just funny how your posts, temporarily got me off track...

-- mnx

Quote from nysekiller:

Quote from Rearden Metal
Actually, the information fell right into my lap. I didn't put any effort into busting him.

See how they say "Great detective work" when you have said many times you really didn't do anything to figure it out, its because you are a top trader and of the wealth you have created for yourself. Exactly what my thesis was all about.
I didn't get pissed at you, you just put a little twist into my research about how et members or people in general would respond when "old" money came up against "new" money. Others here probably knew the blotters were fake but didn't have the balls to say anything because they weren't an elite trader.
Just think if Timmay was making a killing in the markets, how many "I hate Timmay" threads were there be? None, even if he still yelled at him mom or acted like a complete ass sometime, we would all love him because of the money he is making.
I also wanted to post a couple more blotters a few big down days to see how people would react if I came across depressed because of the losses.
I do have to say that I was affected by the attention, everyday I would get a bunch of PM's it was like I was an actor getting fan mail. I did go to my head, and so I do have to say I am sorry to the people I replied to if I set you back in anyway shape or form. But I think also it helped some people see what could be possible in the markets if you worked hard, it was motivating to see those big numbers. I helped in my own trading and still does.
When szeven, red_ink, dustin, mba, RM, lescor, patrickq, and many others post it pushes me the little bit harder to get to the next level.
If the blotters are fake I don't care, they are like my Santa Claus everyday, its the thought behind it.
I can't say I should be blamed for the skeptical attitude towards this thread, because even before me I am sure people were questioning the p/l but I did propel it, and once again I am sorry.
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There are sound reasons for being sceptical:

i) there's a strong incentive to post made-up numbers to look good

ii) historically, people lie about performance. Whether it's kills in battle, or P&L for traders, or how tough a street fight was, it always seems to get exaggerated, it's just himan nature. People post when they have winning days, and post losing days much less.

iii) even people who post legit numbers, there is no way to prove it without account statements and (to be sure) an audit or at least annual accounts and/or an income tax return. Even then, the returns could be from another business.

iv) even if someone gives real proof, we still don't know how they did. For example someone with a $5 mill account could easily post a $100k day just from normal market fluctuation. But they could be down on the year for all we know.

v) even "real" numbers can be manipulated. You can go long 50 futures in one account and short 50 of the same in another, then just post the winner.

I think the ideal example is Rearden Metal - he's posted hefty dollar amounts, yet just recently admitted that until very recently he was down a bit on the year. Nothing unusual with that since it was a very low volatility year up until the last 6 weeks, and that doesn't suit a short-term style. But look at how many people went gaga just seeing a posted 6 figure profit on the day. Unlike most people he was honest enough to post losing days too, and admitted his ultimate performance was not ideal over that stretch. Many people posting would have less ethical qualms than him and would happily let everyone delude themselves into thinking they were some kind of Market Wizard.

Personally I have had years ranging from up good six figures to down high 5 figures. Yet I've never posted up my results - first I don't want to compromise my privacy by giving out my name or company name, second I have no reason to until if and when I look for investors, third I'm aware that unless you post daily results for an entire year, and show proof of your capital base, it doesn't realy mean sh*t since it's unverifiable and we don't know what the % return on capital was.

I would much rather make a bone fide call in advance. If I say for example I think commodity X is going to have a major bull move in the next 12 months, and it goes down 20%, that is instantly verifiable as a sucky call. If I say housing is going down further, and TOL is going to single digits so go short, anyone can check back this time next year and see if I was right or wrong. If I say buy silver and it's $5.50, and then I say sell when it's $8, that can be checked up in real time as making money.

James Cramer is another example of what bugs me about this whole "I made X today" business. Often he says "I am buying this stock" or "I am buying more down here". But what the hell does that mean? He could be long 50% of his net worth in the stock, or he could own 100 shares. His calls and "performance" is meaningless until we know i) the size of his position in the stock; and ii) the size of his portfolio/net worth. If he is putting 10% into GOOG for example, that is useful info. If he is putting 0.1% it doesn't mean sh*t.

It's the same with P&L. If you made $10k today, then you could either be up 100%, or up 0.1%, and we have no way of knowing. You could have been down $50k on the week and finally got a dead cat bounce. That's why I'm so sceptical of P&L threads.

We already know that it is possible to make big money in the markets, as well as to lose it. We know a small handful of traders have achieved outsized returns for years. Other than that, I don't see what useful info a P&L thread gives to anyone.
 
Quote from Cutten:

There are sound reasons for being sceptical:

i) there's a strong incentive to post made-up numbers to look good

ii) historically, people lie about performance. Whether it's kills in battle, or P&L for traders, or how tough a street fight was, it always seems to get exaggerated, it's just himan nature. People post when they have winning days, and post losing days much less.

iii) even people who post legit numbers, there is no way to prove it without account statements and (to be sure) an audit or at least annual accounts and/or an income tax return. Even then, the returns could be from another business.

iv) even if someone gives real proof, we still don't know how they did. For example someone with a $5 mill account could easily post a $100k day just from normal market fluctuation. But they could be down on the year for all we know.

v) even "real" numbers can be manipulated. You can go long 50 futures in one account and short 50 of the same in another, then just post the winner.

I think the ideal example is Rearden Metal - he's posted hefty dollar amounts, yet just recently admitted that until very recently he was down a bit on the year. Nothing unusual with that since it was a very low volatility year up until the last 6 weeks, and that doesn't suit a short-term style. But look at how many people went gaga just seeing a posted 6 figure profit on the day. Unlike most people he was honest enough to post losing days too, and admitted his ultimate performance was not ideal over that stretch. Many people posting would have less ethical qualms than him and would happily let everyone delude themselves into thinking they were some kind of Market Wizard.

Personally I have had years ranging from up good six figures to down high 5 figures. Yet I've never posted up my results - first I don't want to compromise my privacy by giving out my name or company name, second I have no reason to until if and when I look for investors, third I'm aware that unless you post daily results for an entire year, and show proof of your capital base, it doesn't realy mean sh*t since it's unverifiable and we don't know what the % return on capital was.

I would much rather make a bone fide call in advance. If I say for example I think commodity X is going to have a major bull move in the next 12 months, and it goes down 20%, that is instantly verifiable as a sucky call. If I say housing is going down further, and TOL is going to single digits so go short, anyone can check back this time next year and see if I was right or wrong. If I say buy silver and it's $5.50, and then I say sell when it's $8, that can be checked up in real time as making money.

James Cramer is another example of what bugs me about this whole "I made X today" business. Often he says "I am buying this stock" or "I am buying more down here". But what the hell does that mean? He could be long 50% of his net worth in the stock, or he could own 100 shares. His calls and "performance" is meaningless until we know i) the size of his position in the stock; and ii) the size of his portfolio/net worth. If he is putting 10% into GOOG for example, that is useful info. If he is putting 0.1% it doesn't mean sh*t.

It's the same with P&L. If you made $10k today, then you could either be up 100%, or up 0.1%, and we have no way of knowing. You could have been down $50k on the week and finally got a dead cat bounce. That's why I'm so sceptical of P&L threads.

We already know that it is possible to make big money in the markets, as well as to lose it. We know a small handful of traders have achieved outsized returns for years. Other than that, I don't see what useful info a P&L thread gives to anyone.
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I think quite a few post their trades or number of shares traded, and that gives an idea of what buying power we are evaluating the performance against. But you are right, it is far more useful to give indication of cumulative performance relative to capital base. Seeing 100K posted once in a while, with nothing in between and no indication of capital base, is quite misleading. Unfortunately most people are drawn by absolute figures, and not the percenatages.
 
People are gonna believe whatever they want to believe.

The funniest part about the nysekiller debacle is how many people (even already successful traders) believed him outright. Meanwhile it was so blatantly obvious to me that he was lying if you were to look through his posts & history. As someone who traded at an office for 3+ years and have seen the transitions of a trader live, as well as experienced them myself, it was just obvious that he was full of sh*t. The screenshots meant crap. I said it from the start that his story smelled worse than homeless hooker's you know what. A couple other member also noticed the obvious holes, but the majority wanted to believe.

ET members still look at numbers of the big hitters without any understanding of their background, capital reserves & risk. They have total illusions about what it takes to put up $5k daily even on a semi-consistent basis. Especially in this Hybrid/NMS environment.

90% of the board thought that nysekiller's screenshots were the ultimate proof. What a shocker it ended up being to them. Well like I said, people will believe whatever they want to believe, especially when it comes to daytrading success.
 
Just one point I keep thinking of when reading this thread....

A great benefit to ET is meeting other traders. Especially if you can find traders that are outperforming all the rest. In every business you want to associate yourself with the guys you aspire to be, so you can learn from them and gain whatever other contacts they bring to the table. In this business the guys making the $ want to know the other guys making $, and the P/L thread is the single best place for that.

Like a few other people mentioned, stop worrying about the few that fudge the numbers...and start focusing on how you can use ET to your advantage.
 
Quote from Cutten:

There are sound reasons for being sceptical:

i) there's a strong incentive to post made-up numbers to look good
More...
and what would that be? Having people saying "oh, this guy is good" in an internet forum? Come on
I might understand it if someone doesn't post negative days, but you are in serious need of a good doctor if you post fake numbers. You actually need one already if you just talk about them. That's why I usually believe what I see in the p/l
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but when you compare the number of views of P/L 2007 thread to the number of times any given blotter attachment has been downloaded, the vast majority of viewers don't even look at blotters.

I hardly ever look at blotters, though I'm a regular viewer of P/L thread. What I enjoy is the traders' commentary about how their day went.
 
Quote from Hydroblunt:[

ET members still look at numbers of the big hitters without any understanding of their background, capital reserves & risk. They have total illusions about what it takes to put up $5k daily even on a semi-consistent basis. Especially in this Hybrid/NMS environment.

Traders always quote what they made or lost in $$$$ amounts.
What would be more revealing is the Percentage gained or lost daily as well as the $$$'s.

This would truly identify the better systems. Some have 5, 6, or 7 figure in B/P. It's not fair to compare the three by a $$$$ amount!

Lucky
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A friend of mine started out trading emini SP ever since it was introduced.

He grew from 1 lotter at the time to 5, and then 10. Daytrading only. 3 to 4 round turns a day.

One interesting thing though is that he found out the hard way that once his size gets bigger than 10 he lose money.
So the size stays at 10 lot for many years now.

The margin for ES long time ago was huge (>3K per contract) and then now you can daytrading with 500.

So by keeping an account size of 500 margin x 10 lot x 2 for safety, the account size he has now is just 10K.

In the old days it would be 3K x 10 x 2 = 60K

And he makes 10K+ every month.

So it is either 15% (in the old days) or 100% (now) return a month. :)
 
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