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p/l thread 2007 skeptics and detractors
- Thread starter bsparkyman
- Start date
Quote from mde2004:
Obviously all the people who avg. that much a month are starting with much less than average capital and growing it in the beginning by a lot. Eventually the inevitable will occur and they lose it. I do not know one trader who averages 10% a month over multiple years(>3 years).
The only way it really could happen is if the trader started with a small bankroll, say 10k.
Either way, people are going to have good months and bad months.
There is no calculation on return on investment ... leverage and regulation is not the same for a trader(prop pro or arcade) then a retail or mutual fund... But i must say i am really "impressed" by the regularity of some traders ( not the $$ in 1 day but by the regular green side ... specially in the futures) ...you guys keep ur hedge alive.
Quote from Shreddog:
I believe 99% of the blotters I see and as far as I know we've only had one confirmed cheater (NYSEKiller caught in a great piece of detective work by Rearden Metal).
Actually, the information fell right into my lap. I didn't put any effort into busting him.
Quote from nysekiller:
I thought I make this a little more interesting. Yes my blotters were fake. But it was for school I was doing research on how peoples perception of us change with how much wealth the think we have even if its on a internet message board, or at the bank, movies or where ever. After a week it started to affect me and I actually believed it, so I do have to say sorry to amazing trader who had befriended me and helped me along. I think we all know he is and all his posts are 110 percent legit. I personally believe everyone's blotters on here, I have had the opportunity to meet some great traders who have put up some crazy numbers. Anyway congrats to all, and whoever post fake blotters will get found out sooner or later.
Why'd you get so pissed at <i>me</i> last year? Lots of guys were PMing me, asking if your blotters were real, and all I could tell them was I didn't think so, but couldn't prove it. Then the truth just happened to fall into my lap, so I decided to satisfy everyone's curiosity. I'm sure if our roles were reversed, you'd have done the same thing, right?
BTW, during this awesome volatility I've been tempted to start posting some of my numbers again- They're actually not as interesting as last spring for some reason- A lot of winning days between 125 and 155 grand but nothing above that. No massive losing days though.
I had a few much bigger winning days last spring, but took a 400K hit one day in the middle of the run, as some of you recall.
I should have had a breakout career day (600K+) yesterday (Thurs.), but got shaken out of my longs, 45 minutes before the close. I found out the same thing happened to MANY top traders, so I shouldn't feel too bad about it. I'd also fully disclose that until this awesome volatility started 3 weeks ago, I was actually down 390 grand on the year. Kinda like the Jesse Livermore pattern: Clean up in volatile markets, and bleed the account during regular slow times...
<i>"correct. Imagine 10% a month continuously reinvested. In 15-20 years, they could eliminate the national debt.
Show the top 10% CTA official records that they average 10% a month..."</i>
How many times will this same tired bullsh*t be rehashed in ET? Answer: equal amount of times to the other bullsh*t of tech analysis doesn't work.
*
Again, it's a stock traders' mentality. Retail traders working modest account sizes relative to money managers aren't comparable. If I couldn't make at least +50% per month during dead periods and +200% to +500% per month (per month.. not year, month) as an active day trader, I'd quit.
Who wouldn't? Who in their right mind would sit in front of the screens day in & out, enduring the boredom = stress = fatigue for ten freakin' percent per year?
+10% annual is fine for traders working $10mil accounts or part-time investors. I've had many days (not years, days) recently where +10% of account balance is the morning rake.
Obviously there is a rather low ceiling of liquidity before such gains wither. In the ER2, that would probably be 20 contracts max before slippage negates the approach.
In the ES, I'm guessing 200 contracts will meet some slippage issues at times, but it might be 400 - 500 contracts before playing the -$100 / +$200 (or better) per trade game is nixed due to slippage on ins and out. Don't know personally, but I'll find out where the upper threshhold is before this time next year.
Regardless, money managers running more than $5mil would dilute above stated results. Retail traders (like us) working five and six figure accounts, day trading actively can return 100% to several hundred percent annual.
Does everyone understand the dramatic difference between professional retail traders working modest accounts and professional CTAs working >$5mil in the emini futures world specifically?
No possible comparison. Please drop the flawed logic forever.
Show the top 10% CTA official records that they average 10% a month..."</i>
How many times will this same tired bullsh*t be rehashed in ET? Answer: equal amount of times to the other bullsh*t of tech analysis doesn't work.
*
Again, it's a stock traders' mentality. Retail traders working modest account sizes relative to money managers aren't comparable. If I couldn't make at least +50% per month during dead periods and +200% to +500% per month (per month.. not year, month) as an active day trader, I'd quit.
Who wouldn't? Who in their right mind would sit in front of the screens day in & out, enduring the boredom = stress = fatigue for ten freakin' percent per year?
+10% annual is fine for traders working $10mil accounts or part-time investors. I've had many days (not years, days) recently where +10% of account balance is the morning rake.
Obviously there is a rather low ceiling of liquidity before such gains wither. In the ER2, that would probably be 20 contracts max before slippage negates the approach.
In the ES, I'm guessing 200 contracts will meet some slippage issues at times, but it might be 400 - 500 contracts before playing the -$100 / +$200 (or better) per trade game is nixed due to slippage on ins and out. Don't know personally, but I'll find out where the upper threshhold is before this time next year.
Regardless, money managers running more than $5mil would dilute above stated results. Retail traders (like us) working five and six figure accounts, day trading actively can return 100% to several hundred percent annual.
Does everyone understand the dramatic difference between professional retail traders working modest accounts and professional CTAs working >$5mil in the emini futures world specifically?
No possible comparison. Please drop the flawed logic forever.
Quote from rcanfiel:
...Imagine 10% a month continuously reinvested. In 15-20 years, they could eliminate the national debt...
Quote from austinp:
...Does everyone understand the dramatic difference between professional retail traders working modest accounts and professional CTAs working >$5mil in the emini futures world specifically?
No possible comparison. Please drop the flawed logic forever.
Strongly agree and I'm often amazed at why some still use that type of flawed perception.
Heck, we all got bills to pay and/or families to support.
That type of compounding for a retail trader is not possible unless you have no debts, still living at home with mom & dad for free along with trading for free for that entire 15 - 20 years of trading.
Mark
The reason for the flawed logic is clear ... the author is none other than ... drum roll ...
but why use his name again.
but why use his name again.
Quote from NihabaAshi:
Strongly agree and I'm often amazed at why some still use that type of flawed perception.
Heck, we all got bills to pay and/or families to support.
That type of compounding for a retail trader is not possible unless you have no debts, still living at home with mom & dad for free along with trading for free for that entire 15 - 20 years of trading.
Mark
The part of your statement that I've placed in italics/bold is not correct.
Good trading,
Jimmy Jam
Quote from JimmyJam:
The part of your statement that I've placed in italics/bold is not correct.
Good trading,
Jimmy Jam
Actually it is correct if you keep the entire quote in context...
Heck, we all got bills to pay and/or families to support.
That type of compounding for a retail trader is not possible unless you have no debts, still living at home with mom & dad for free along with trading for free for that entire 15 - 20 years of trading.
With that said, I'm very interested in a detailed explanation how a retail trader can compound 100% of his/her profits...year after year while having to pull some of those profits for living expenses???
Remember now...we are talking about retail traders.
I await your reply because I am a retail trader that supports my family off my profits for +15 years.
Mark