p/l thread 2007 skeptics and detractors

It all boils down to whether the traders have an edge or not, and how frequently they trade. Some of these folks are making like 50 round-trips a day. Even with a slight edge, say 60% chance of a win on each trade, after that number of trades, the odds that you will have more winners than losers is up to 95%. With that type of chance you could literally go a month or two without a losing day!

For those of us who only make like two trades day (whether because we have a full time job, or simply have a different style), it is much more difficult to pull together a string of winning days even with the same probability per trade. That is just how things are. It is the law of large numbers at work. So there is no reason to doubt the performance.

If there is any criticism, it is that some folks show up only when there is a gain. It gives a very skewed and misleading picture.
 
I thought I make this a little more interesting. Yes my blotters were fake. But it was for school I was doing research on how peoples perception of us change with how much wealth the think we have even if its on a internet message board, or at the bank, movies or where ever. After a week it started to affect me and I actually believed it, so I do have to say sorry to amazing trader who had befriended me and helped me along. I think we all know he is and all his posts are 110 percent legit. I personally believe everyone's blotters on here, I have had the opportunity to meet some great traders who have put up some crazy numbers. Anyway congrats to all, and whoever post fake blotters will get found out sooner or later.
 
Quote from john12:

what size accounts are people quoting to have made 10% a month on? i challange anyone of et to show me a $1 million account you made 120% a year every year for 10 years with standard leverage. if anyone made 120% a year on $1 mil or more they'd have the record for the greatest trader of all time. many on the p@l board have 20-50 mil buying power with little down so even if they made 500k a year its not a huge % return
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How about 100% on a $10 Mil USD account?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1571663#post1571663

Don't know why I even bother replying to posts like yours.

Maybe it's because I don't want new traders to get into your mind set. Once the cement cures, it's darn near impossible to take it apart and put it back together the correct way.

There are many "great traders" out there. However you won't read about them piking on Trader Monthly or some similar rag.
 
I've read some good posts already on this thread, and I hope it's okay if I post a few of my thoughts.

What is the purpose of the blotter thread? What is it's value? As I recall, in the initial months after creation, it was (and likely continues to be) the most popular and actively read thread on ET. Why does it attract such a close following, and why do people post on it?

Personally, I think it is a place to be inspired. It's a place to share a quick glimpse of your day with your fellow trader. The blotter thread is not a place to learn trading strategies. It's not a public question and answer forum.

Is it possible for people to create realistic appearing blotters for the sake of 'impressing' others? => I'm sure it is. But, who cares? Certainly not me. I believe that 98%+ of the posts on the thread are legit, and it's likely higher than that.

Inspiration. That's the value to me. I must say that two of the posters that I most enjoyed reading was Rearden Metal and nysekiller. At a time last year, both of them were putting up massive numbers. It was amazing to see that such large profits were even possible from daytrading. I haven't been a piker for quite a few years, but reading those sort of numbers inspired me to not be satisfied with my results, and constantly strive for even higher returns. Truth be told, I wish that I never found out that the blotters from nysekiller were not legit, as they were inspirational for me regardless.

In trading, you don't always have role models available to you. You don't always have people that you can look up to, and people who's achievements you hope to match some day as you develop as a trader. The blotter thread allows you to follow a trader, often daily over time, and see their progression as they develop their skills. Watching Dustin or Szeven's progress in recent weeks/months has been amazing, for example. Congrats to them both.

Like Shreddog and Lescor, I don't post daily on the thread. It's a bit of a hassle, and not something that is built into my daily routine (although I did post daily for a month last December and several weeks earlier this year). Like them, I do post occasionally on days with special interest, such as the past two days. My goal is not to 'impress' or brag, but to enable others to see what's possible in this business, and to inspire less experienced traders to always be seeking higher levels of achievement.

Also, as others have mentioned on this thread, I have met a number of extremely successful traders through interaction on ET, and I owe a thanks to Barron for making that possible. I try to 'give back' to ET when I can and try to avoid the bickering and pettiness that sometimes appears on this site. For those that don't believe some/most of the blotters posted, I would suggest that you just keep it to yourself. Your disbelief (accurate or otherwise) is likely holding you back as a trader as you might be less likely to really think big in terms of what is possible in this field. Instead of conclusively thinking "No, that is not possible", I would suggest a trader be thinking "Wow, if that's possible, how can I incrementally improve my trading towards reaching similar returns?" The validity of the blotters really shouldn't even matter, IMO.

Best of luck, and happy trading!
 
<i>"My results are real to me and my bank and that's all that really matters."</i>

First of all, anyone who doubts MBA's results doesn't understand emini trading. It's obvious that style of small-trade turns nets out 1/2pt ES per contract on average. I'd opine he doesn't dig big holes of drawdown intraday to begin with. It looks to me like momentum scalping with real effective market timing. Such is certainly possible, for sure.

The stock-minded traders have a hard time grasping the power of emini leverage, with understanding we create leverage in our own accounts via our personal management of $$ size and risk per trade. The instrument has no more or less leverage than we expose ourselves to.

Assume a static $1mil account balance. That could trade 100 ES contracts at $10,000 cash per contract. Initial stop per trade risked is -$100 or -$10,000 per trade. On a $1mil account, it is -1% risk per trade on each turn.

If the average win per trade is +$20,000 with an overall average profit per intraday trade of $5,000 net (wins minus losses) it takes 200 of those to yield 100% annual gain. If the average profit size is +$25 per contract, it takes 400 turns annual to net +100%.

The opportunity to make that happen in eminiland is bountiful. Heck, wipe some spilled coffee off your keyboard these days and you're liable to click in a +4pt ES win purely by mistake. Stock traders need to push big size to net $200 or $2,000 per trade. Not so in eminis, it's a very different game.

Doubling $1mil or $2mil per year is no big deal mathematically... if the trader possesses proper skills. More than double is likewise possible, but that concept eludes most stock traders and we don't want to blow any more minds.

It has nothing to do with taking on enormous risk... leverage is created, negated or abused by each individual's money management. Period. The opportunity for profit is high frequency in the eminis, one glance at any intraday chart proves that point in ample fashion.

I'll make a prediction here: MBA will become more efficient with his trades, bump that per-contract average up towards 1pt from 1/4pt to 1/2pt and results will likewise double. We already see that progression happening... only a matter of time before he commonly bags $100k days using the exact-same approach, more efficiently.

Get used to it :D
 
one of the better threads on ET.

all too often i get disheartened when i see so many threads turning into pissing contests and emotional diatribes. but reading this thread causes me to re-consider posting my pnl. maybe it will help me and give back at the same time. there are a handful of posters on ET that have greatly helped me.

my hesitation to posting is that i know it will be hard to do everyday.....the last thing i want to do after a trading is sit around the computer more.

well, here's a start. i've had an awesome 3 weeks trading ES since the volatility came back. i've made about as much in the last 3 weeks as i made in the first 7 months of the year. and this week was my best week ever, until today when i gave back the majority of this weeks gains. last night i told myself that i should take friday off and maybe just watch...i even set my alarm so i could sleep in (west coast) after being exhausted the past few weeks. i got up around 7:15 and the action was to intoxicating to ignore.....i got chopped up on a few quick trades and then i decided to put my full size on (that was a major mistake - i've been trading half size since the vix shot up). i got too stubborn and let it go way too far.

i'm still up big on the month, but today sure hurt.

i will consider posting in the pnl thread next week.
 
Quote from mde2004:

You are telling me that 10% a month is the norm, you are nuts.
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correct. Imagine 10% a month continuously reinvested. In 15-20 years, they could eliminate the national debt.

Show the top 10% CTA official records that they average 10% a month...
 
Quote from FLY7788:

Bullshit ....
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To the guy questioning Szeven's numbers. I know Szeven personally. We live in the same city, actually got to know each other through this site.

I've been to his office and seen him trade many a time. The guy is 100% legit. If he's a lair then so am I.

cheers,
Red
 
Obviously all the people who avg. that much a month are starting with much less than average capital and growing it in the beginning by a lot. Eventually the inevitable will occur and they lose it. I do not know one trader who averages 10% a month over multiple years(>3 years).

The only way it really could happen is if the trader started with a small bankroll, say 10k.

Either way, people are going to have good months and bad months.
 
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