Overnight asks - Does Anybody Here Have Stops in Their Mutual Fund or ETF Fund? For Cryin' Out Loud!

[easymon1]

It already happened. I should not have sold. Lesson learned.

Were you trading your buy hold roll strat then?

 

[Overnight]

Were you trading your buy hold roll strat then?

No. I sold near the low, by using a "mental stop". That will never happen again.

The "market" has taught me that no matter how bad it starts to look, it will get better. I dun' care if the fundamental reason is unsound, such as the Fed going brrrrrrrr.

"...My March 2020 fail was the last straw. Follow the new plan or die..."

This is why I pound the table on never over-levering on positions, so you can survive drops like that. It is less reward, but less risk.

 

[deaddog]

No one has explained why you shouldn't use stops.

Stops don't prevent a loss they keep losses small and protect your capital.

 

[Overnight]

No one has explained why you shouldn't use stops.

Stops don't prevent a loss they keep losses small and protect your capital.

When the ES goes from a 10-point range one day to a 50-point range in the next day, what is a reasonable stop? The ES used to be crummy in PA and ranging. Now it is like a wild stallion with hot mustard stuffed up it's bottom. Each day is so different from the last. It's total noise. So I avoid the noise.

Inefficient? You betcha'! But mush less stressful. For me, of course.

 

[easymon1]

No. I sold near the low, by using a "mental stop". That will never happen again.

The "market" has taught me that no matter how bad it starts to look, it will get better. I dun' care if the fundamental reason is unsound, such as the Fed going brrrrrrrr.

"...My March 2020 fail was the last straw. Follow the new plan or die..."

This is why I pound the table on never over-levering on positions, so you can survive drops like that. It is less reward, but less risk.

That was under the Old plan. But how bout for the new plan? What is the max loss possible?

So under the new plan, your buy hold roll strat ...
What would it cost $Risk basis friday close price if starting sunday night, heaven forbid, the market tanks and goes limit down for a month, an absurd scenario most likely, but it serves a purpose of drawing out from you the maximum possible damage to your account that could occur under the current operating principles. The outside of the envelope as it were. Curious what that number Could be per contract.

What if worse case, multiple limit down days happen?
You can withstand a month of that?
Reducto ad Absurdum.

 

[deaddog]

When the ES goes from a 10-point range one day to a 50-point range in the next day, what is a reasonable stop? The ES used to be crummy in PA and ranging. Now it is like a wild stallion with hot mustard stuffed up it's bottom. Each day is so different from the last. It's total noise. So I avoid the noise.

Inefficient? You betcha'! But mush less stressful. For me, of course.

A reasonable stop is when you exceed what you are willing to risk on any one trade.

 

[Overnight]

...
Reducto ad Absurdum.

Reducto ad absurdum.

The max loss on MES with one contract would be 4166 points. = $20,830.

The max loss on MYM with one contract would be 33,300 points = $16,650.

The max loss on MNQ with one contract would be 14,000 points = $28,000

Yes, I could survive those drops.

 

[easymon1]

So under your buy hold roll strat, you "trade" once every three months?
Is that your only trading activity?

 

[Overnight]

So under your buy hold roll strat, you trade once every three months?
Is that your only trading activity?

*sighs* You haven't been reading my journal. I refer you to that for the skinny.

The general gist of it is...If the trade does not work out in favor, just hold until it is in profit. Go to expiry if needed, and roll.

 

[SunTrader]

No. I sold near the low, by using a "mental stop". That will never happen again.

The "market" has taught me that no matter how bad it starts to look, it will get better. I dun' care if the fundamental reason is unsound, such as the Fed going brrrrrrrr.

"...My March 2020 fail was the last straw. Follow the new plan or die..."

This is why I pound the table on never over-levering on positions, so you can survive drops like that. It is less reward, but less risk.

So if you truly believe that (and last few FED years nothing wrong with that) then why not have a stop in place, bail out, let's things run a little further down, then get back in near or close to the lows?

Stop to get out, stop to get back in.

Everyone talks about the missing the rallies, no one talks about missing the collapses - relatively speaking.