Outstanding article must read.

[nitro]

So is the ultimate answer that this country is doomed even if we innovate, because the thing that generates lots of jobs on the order of hundreds of thousands per innovation is the actual manufacturing of the end product? (INTC CPUs are made in Mexico and Malasya if I remember correctly)

Are all the people that voted overwhelmingly for option 1 (including me) wrong?

Let me propose something radical, and let's take the argument that the nay sayers propose to it's logical limit. What happens when we create robots that are perfectly capable of doing 90% of all manufacturing jobs? Does the entire world then implode economically? This is not as far away as you think, at most 200 years?

Are we just postponing the inevitable conclusion, whatever that is? (If someone knows or has a theory of what this all leads to, I would like to hear it.)

How does the entire world economy reinvent itself so that making a living is not at the mercy of making things and supporting those things?

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from Ash1972:

Every time there's a recession people ask where the new jobs are going to come from. We always think "'it's different this time". It's NEVER different. Markets always provide the answer in the end but you'll never be able to predict what it will be. That's how capitalism works.

In 1900 it was generally believed that everything that could be invented had already been invented and that nothing significant remained to be done. There was going to be a long, slow decline throughout the 20th century and beyond.

+1

Great points. To those who "can't see where any new jobs will be created", read this man's post. Of course you can't see where new jobs will be created! New inventions, technological advancements, innovation etc. will fuel new jobs. You cannot see them now because they have not been created yet.

I didn't read the entire article but I think the jist of it is that we need to fund research in order to create new jobs. I think this is 100% correct.

 

[Bob111]

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1718880&highlight=R&D#post1718880

that was in 2007...same before and after war in iraq

yeah right...imagine,what 500b can do,in right hands, invested in R&D...

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from Sodajerk:


No, it's not a simplistic all-or-nothing proposition. The idea is to make protectionism work for you when possible. Leave it to the other guy (your competition) to make protectionism work for him (and possibly against you).

Have you taken any economics classes? Protectionism is the worst thing for an economy. Think the Great Depression...

Free trade allows both countries to consume beyond their production capacity.

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from bidask:

i disagree with this article. there's more r&d now than ever. the problem is a lot of the fruits of the r&d are going outside of the u.s.

How so?

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from Scataphagos:

In spite of the article's optimism about "possible to create jobs again", my view is that the article is just spinning hope and is wrong... at least when it comes to "well-paying jobs".

"The money" and good jobs are not in R&D/innovation.. they're in PRODUCTION. And ALL production will consider whether it can be made more cheaply in Chindia. In nearly all cases, it can... because the labor cost differential is so great.

Yes but R&D/innovation is what fuels production. Without R&D/innvoation there will be no production improvements, it's a fact.

 

[Daal]

Quote from nitro:

So is the ultimate answer that this country is doomed even if we innovate, because the thing that generates lots of jobs on the order of hundreds of thousands per innovation is the actual manufacturing of the end product? (INTC CPUs are made in Mexico and Malasya if I remember correctly)

Are all the people that voted overwhelmingly for option 1 (including me) wrong?

Let me propose something radical, and let's take the argument that the nay sayers propose to it's logical limit. What happens when we create robots that are perfectly capable of doing 90% of all manufacturing jobs? Does the entire world then implode economically? This is not as far away as you think, at most 200 years?

Are we just postponing the inevitable conclusion, whatever that is? (If someone knows or has a theory of what this all leads to, I would like to hear it.)

How does the entire world economy reinvent itself so that making a living is not at the mercy of making things and supporting those things?

With all due respect nitro, your argument is a bit flawled. Your terrible scenario where robots produce everything and everybody loses their job is actually excellent for the world. Lets say bots start to farm, manufacture, perform surgeries, clean, etc. This would lead to a tremendous growth in output(after all that is the only case where most people would lose their jobs), what would happen to prices in this situation?MV = PQ, this is equivalent to P = MV/Q, Q is output, the more output the less the price. Everything will be massively cheap, we are talking bums on the street being able to afford health care. Futhermore the robot industry would boom, programming, engineering. Plus dozens of new industries that would arise from this 'new world', which ones?I dont know, but capitalism shows that there is ALWAYS new industries. Plus plenty of existing industries will continue to exist(and growth more with all the new cheap labor), no one will watch a romantic comedy with a T-800 and Angelina Jolie

Its quite possible that the only way to can get most people fired in a modern capitalist open economy is to increase output so greatly you essentially make the average person an overnight millionarie(through massive output induced deflation). These numbers are speculative but sets the idea

 

[SNBthetrue]

they will do it all ! however I am sure human will always be better farmer ( not looting the land as do the industrial farming industry ).

 

[TGregg]

Quote from Daal:

Its quite possible that the only way to can get most people fired in a modern capitalist open economy is to increase output so greatly you essentially make the average person an overnight millionarie(through massive output induced deflation). These numbers are speculative but sets the idea

Somebody wrote a novel based on such a society - where mass automation made goods so plentiful that they cost next to nothing and people did not have to work if they did not wish. There were two classes of citizens, people who worked and people who did not. Only the first class could vote. Everywhere the working class went, some politician was there handing out freebies trying to get votes. IIRC, the catchphrase was "I humbly solicite your vote."

 

[bidask]

rampant, systematic, and government encouraged copyright and patent violations all over the world.

these countries basically use the U.S. as their r&d center. let the u.s. waste its time and resources doing trial and error. just sit back and copy the final product.

Quote from Kassz007:

How so?