Out of curiosity: anyone here consistently predicts market direction?

Tbh i dont have high enough quality bid&ask tickdata to do backtest with valid spreads and know exact number for 10+ years.

Cheap dataproviders provide poor data imo. If
algos find strange oppertunities i know data is shit.
And my algos determine poor data very well.

Fighting agains poor data with manually coded validity filters is hopeless too imo.
 
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guru said:
No, mostly trading volatility, IV smile, imperfect option pricing in general, etc. Long topic.
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Yes i ment volatility.

Basically you seek for potential instead of directon?

Do you think it would be viable idea for forex and stocks instead of options as well?
 
931 said:
Yes i ment volatility.

Basically you seek for potential instead of directon?

Do you think it would be viable idea for forex and stocks instead of options as well?
More...


I trade stock and index options, which may also work on Forex and futures options (plan to work on this).
As for trading stocks and forex directly, not exactly, but a similar approach may be the
Modern Portfolio Theory where you create a weighted mix of instruments to achieve best profitability-to-volatility ratio (Sharpe), and you rebalance your positions periodically. Some funds that focus on variants of this approach claim to beat S&P 500, but I’m not sure that you could get results worth describing as “trading” vs “investing”.
 
are you in the "business" of making money,or in the likelihood of making money "business"?


Tradex said:
With out of the money calls, the price has to do 3 things if you want to make money:

1 : it has to move the right way.
2: it has to move fast enough to overcome the time decay.
3: it has to be above the strike price on of before expiration.

On the other hand, when you sell puts the price has to stay above the strike price and that's it!

So selling puts clearly puts the odds in your favor.
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Tradex said:
With out of the money calls, the price has to do 3 things if you want to make money:

1 : it has to move the right way.
2: it has to move fast enough to overcome the time decay.
3: it has to be above the strike price on of before expiration.

On the other hand, when you sell puts the price has to stay above the strike price and that's it!

So selling puts clearly puts the odds in your favor.
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1. "...has to move the right way" Huh? o_O

2. And your definition of fast is.... "Accelerate fast enough with terminal exit velocity" would have sounded cooler.

3. Many of us have made plenty of money on OTM calls before they go ITM. They simply just need to go up in value.

And many of us have lost money covering short OTM puts before they expired.

"...selling puts clearly puts the odds in your favor." You're not serious, are you? :wtf:

I think you need some tutoring on basic options theory and practice. Everything you said makes zero sense or is only partially true.
 
VolSkewTrader said:
Everything you said makes zero sense
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Don't worry, you will get it one day.

Those still new to options trading need to understand than they can lose money on their call options even if the stock (or other financial instruments) moves in their favor.

So the stock has to move your way AND move quickly enough to overcome the time decay.

VolSkewTrader said:
They [OTM calls] simply just need to go up in value
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Right, piece of cake.
 
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