Out of curiosity: anyone here consistently predicts market direction?

[AbbotAle]

Why make it complicated? Just follow the trends. Pullbacks and trading ranges does not mean a bear market. It is just areas where buyers get in.

Agree, and that strategy requires ZERO predictions. Just go with the flow.

It works more times than it doesn't in markets that are flowing. As to what a flowing market looks like - look at the chart, it should be instantly recognisable. If it's not, either look at a different market or change the time-period.

How/when/where to take profits is the hard part. One area to be on the lookout for in a flowing market is when the price goes out of character, ie the previous moves up/down have sort of been similar but then comes an upmove (assume up-flow) that is far greater than the previous up-moves. That's the out of character price action and it's a very good place to think about covering.

 

[notagain]

Using NQ 46 tick range bars or 2 minute bars, can predict the next bar direction above 50% chance. One hour bar shows the market is out to screw the greatest number of traders.

 

[danielc1]

prediction leads to 'sure' trades, and 'sure' trades lead to 'more' risk and 'more' risk leads to bankruptcy... Do not predict.

 

[Millionaire]

For the beginner or developing trader, that would be the only environment I would recommend participating in. Other environments can be traded but require advanced levels of skill and discipline.

Do you always post in such a pompous way on this board?

 

[Tradex]

trend following with short options is profitable if you know how to adjust when wrong.

You mean like selling puts in an uptrend?

 

[speedo]

Do you always post in such a pompous way on this board?

Sometimes not all the time.

 

[ZBZB]

You mean like selling puts in an uptrend?

yes

 

[traider]

yes

if its an uptrend buy otm calls and leverage to the max. Why sell puts?

 

[guru]

anyone here consistently predicts market direction?

You posted this in “Options”, which do not need to require predicting market direction.
I make money by consistently not predicting market direction.

 

[Tradex]

yes

Yes of course, very good strategy, assuming the option seller can jump ship when the boat is about to sink...