Robert Morse
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It would be easier to answer with a current example. It could be option skew, hard to borrow, pending dividend, pending corporate action, or you could be right and there might be a way to find vig in this.
OTM call spreads vs OTM put spreads on very high IV
- Thread starter JackRab
- Start date
It would be easier to answer with a current example. It could be option skew, hard to borrow, pending dividend, pending corporate action, or you could be right and there might be a way to find vig in this.
OPTH, see my earlier post with options sheet. That was yesterday's prices...
Borrow rates are not ridiculous... and that wouldn't matter because the synthetics are more or less priced normally. No dividend.... Boxes add up...
OTM calls just have such a high value that the call spreads come down massively.
The 15-55 CS which is $20 ITM, exactly around the spot, is about $14 and the equivalent 15-55 PS is $26. This makes sense when OTM calls are high... 55 strike has priced a lot more time premium than 15 strike... because it has more upside than the 15 strike has downside...
I just find it weird that this creates cheap call spreads out of the money, while those OTM calls are 'expensive'.
Under a lognormal distribution the call side has a far fatter tail therefore the skew cheapens the call spread. The easy way to back of the napkin price skew is to look at the 1 x 2 ratios. As skews get fatter, the ratio spreads go into credit.
When is the news coming out? Obviously before these Dec16s expire. The best way to trade these is with flys.
Wow, so there is a $100 to $120 tgt if approval and $7 if no approval. There is your answer. And Steve Cohen is a buyer...hmm.
Just how options are priced. There is a lower bound at 0. So a put with a 0 strike is worthless. It is $35 under current price. The 70 call is at $5. This skews stuff.
How do you get to 100-120 bucks?
PS thanks for joining!
I was thinking something similar. Maybe further away even to have a lower cost base. But more looking for upside and covering the premium paid in the CS with a put.
More like 60-80 CS for $4 plus the smallest put (15) for about $3 to cover for 90% down move.
$7 for $13 net return up.
@Maverick74 Expected results was before end of year. So Jan would be safest, but Dec is very much priced to rock....
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Okay, I've worked out a decent strategy.
2 long flies (1 condor)
60-70-80 Bfly + 70-80-90 Bfly = 60-70-80-90 Condor, at perfect midpoints about $1...
Break even 61-89, max $10 at 70-80. That's a good range.
Upwards it seems the 60 Bfly and 70 Bfly are most expensive, so if priced correct that's the range we're looking for?
Maybe add a 90-95 CS... for upside beyond 90 for an extra 70ct. ?
6 options in qty +1 -1 -1 +2 -1 is about 7% transaction costs (max w IB) on top of costbase.
So about $2 costbase total (with small slippage) for $10 max payoff, that's 400% profit. If absolutely through the roof is $5 payoff, 150% profit.
Break evens at 62-88, 92
Interesting....
EDIT. I think I'm getting a bit carried away here.... losing track re cheap call spread.
2 long flies (1 condor)
60-70-80 Bfly + 70-80-90 Bfly = 60-70-80-90 Condor, at perfect midpoints about $1...
Break even 61-89, max $10 at 70-80. That's a good range.
Upwards it seems the 60 Bfly and 70 Bfly are most expensive, so if priced correct that's the range we're looking for?
Maybe add a 90-95 CS... for upside beyond 90 for an extra 70ct. ?
6 options in qty +1 -1 -1 +2 -1 is about 7% transaction costs (max w IB) on top of costbase.
So about $2 costbase total (with small slippage) for $10 max payoff, that's 400% profit. If absolutely through the roof is $5 payoff, 150% profit.
Break evens at 62-88, 92
Interesting....
EDIT. I think I'm getting a bit carried away here.... losing track re cheap call spread.
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