options . . . very hard to make money
- Thread starter billyjoerob
- Start date
lol, you conveniently omitted the hard part in trading options profitably which is to estimate the distribution with edge, meaning you are unable to currently derive a smart expected value for each outcome. This puts you in the same camp than the other 300 options books out there, close to zero value....just my 2 cents
its unlikely the story is true but not impossible. Selling premium makes you money until this one day....or couple days.....if you know to get out early enough then you are fine if not then....very simple....the same game that is played at every options desk in every single sell side investment bank.....or would you in the slightest disagree, Atticus? I doubt you would!
there is so much i can say; but i'll try to be brief. firstly i do not simply sell premium. the help i received could not have produced results without 24/7 work on my part. i would never or could never explain how i trade because it is not teachable as any good trader would know.
atticus is wrong on earnings though. it's over 7 figures.
my advice to anyone who wants to succeed is anything less than 100% work will never produce posiitve results. the attached is half of days earnings from trading. good luck guys , it can be done.
Get used to the disappointment. It's NOYFB. I was responding to the OP's premise with an example of a guy seeing a lot of success on the retail level. You would like to replicate it, so that's where you interest lies. No harm in asking I suppose, but it is a disincentive (for SIV66) to do so.
I never expected that you would read this thread, let alone respond. In any event, why not show your gross PNL for the last two years? SIV66 is trading two or three accounts at IB.
"firstly i do not simply sell premium"
He was obviously spreading and trading combinations. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for SIV66 to post his trades in a journal. There is absolutely no upside for him to do so.
FWIW, I had very little to do with it. I was not privy to his daily positions. I showed him a few things, that's all. I wasn't aware that SIV66 had hit 7-figures, so I take no blame, nor praise for his results to date, or in the future.
The tails of the distribution are going to have a few guys earning an order of magnitude and a few guys going debit for millions. Sell-side earnings aren't terribly relevant because it's difficult to assign a number to ROC. Mark McGoldrick wanted to be paid 2% (in addition to his bonus) on assets at GS to align his pay with the buy-side, which is nuts because he had the backing of the entire firm.
SIV66 started with a small stake and never exceeded that stake in terms of haircut. I think it's a pretty exceptional thing he did, especially with no backing, lines, etc.
lol, no upside as you say in showing gross p/l. suffice to say it's there (lot's spent on living though) but only benefits me.
i am proud especially how well i have done through vol swings since 2008 so i was motivated to respond in a thread that claims it is hard to earn; yes true..is anything easy?
all i am saying is you gave me the road map on a certain strategy that i was interested in and it was all correct. like i said it is not set and forget it, i am at the screen the entire day. i doubt anyone could earn like i do without some brains.
edit: i still can blow up (flash crash i was down 100k unrealized, since earned it back) or get hurt so if anyone earns a lot, i urge you to wire out as much as possible.
anyway i believe in a bit of karma and wanted to thank atticus. i have done so privately countless times too.
atticus is not perfect (lol) but there is no one better in knowledge and willingness to help for free (which i think is nuts).
I had responded:
"I would like to point out that almost all of the "premium" you're selling in this example is intrinsic value, which you capture only if the market makes a large move in the right direction. When people talk about selling premium they usually mean selling time value."
I forgot to add that ammo's trade is gamma positive, vega positive, and theta negative (all of which is easiest to see if you consider the synthetically equivalent debit put spread). This is opposite from the trades of the super trader, which are short gamma and vega (and presumably long theta). So whatever sellindexvol66 is doing, he's not making the kind of trades ammo suggested.