Options Mentoring

Quote from atticus:




Serious question for Mav. What is your edge in trading options? [/B]
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Mav, maybe you missed this post, I'd like to hear your answer too, thanks.
 
Quote from hlpsg:

If you put an iron condor on with an 85% chance of winning (a small profit) and which has a 15% chance of making a huge loss, and if your strategy included limiting that loss a manageable amount when the trade moves against you, don't you have a positive expectancy over the long run?
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No. Once you change your exit strategy, you lower the chance of winning.

If you buy/sell at a "fair value", you have zero expectancy. A combination of positions with zero expectancy will give you a zero expectancy. Simple Math.

Good trading and learning to everyone.
 
I went to a seminar in Toronto with Dan Sheridan yesterday and I wanted to give some feedback.

Dan is a nice enough guy and he is the real deal pit trader BUT the real question is will his techniques work ?????

AND will they continue to work into the future because as we all know, once something is disseminated it's loses it's edge.

I would love to hear back from some longer term students about their results.

Thanks
 
if you can calculate the prob of exit and the exit price then there may be an edge.

Quote from yip1997:

No. Once you change your exit strategy, you lower the chance of winning.

If you buy/sell at a "fair value", you have zero expectancy. A combination of positions with zero expectancy will give you a zero expectancy. Simple Math.

Good trading and learning to everyone.
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Whichever program you do join, do not join the Top Trader program www.toptrader.com by Premier Mentoring. It is an overprized piece of baloney. Some "coaches" basically trying to "mentor" (deliver a few inadadequate web classes and answering emails occassionally) some hundreds of people simultaneously and charging thousands of dollars for it.
 
Quote from Maverick74:
The whole world is capable of pulling up a volatility chart. Everyone can see when vols are at their lowest levels. It's not a secret. Again, it's not that easy. Low vols tend to bleed to death. There is no bottom to low vol levels.
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Not sure I follow you. Of course there is no bottom to volty, but when it is low, it will "bleed" rather than fall off a cliff. It is equally likely to shoot up.

In any case, calendars are all about theta, and I would rather bet on theta rather than a slowly decreasing volty.
 
Quote from Joab:

I went to a seminar in Toronto with Dan Sheridan yesterday and I wanted to give some feedback.

Dan is a nice enough guy and he is the real deal pit trader BUT the real question is will his techniques work ?????

AND will they continue to work into the future because as we all know, once something is disseminated it's loses it's edge.

I would love to hear back from some longer term students about their results.

Thanks
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It all comes down to how he "speaks" to you. Does his style of trading fit you. If you are a short term trader, forget it. You need to follow his strategy for weeks before you see a profit, and if that suits you, he's the man.

Second, "once something is disseminated it's loses it's edge" is not really correct in income strategies because you are trading a long term strategy against short term traders.

They are thinking days or a week, while I am working on a month time frame.

Theta is theta, gamma is gamma, etc, and that constitutes conditions that never will go away. The edge is knowing how to use them.
 
Quote from cdowis:

It all comes down to how he "speaks" to you. Does his style of trading fit you. If you are a short term trader, forget it. You need to follow his strategy for weeks before you see a profit, and if that suits you, he's the man.

Second, "once something is disseminated it's loses it's edge" is not really correct in income strategies because you are trading a long term strategy against short term traders.

They are thinking days or a week, while I am working on a month time frame.

Theta is theta, gamma is gamma, etc, and that constitutes conditions that never will go away. The edge is knowing how to use them.
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I put out this thought for critique.

If everyone tries to enter a spread order at the same time at the same number of days, you get high demand for certain strikes that you're going long, and the IV pumps up, so you buy a more expensive option.

Same thing goes for the short strikes, you all try to sell the same options, IV drops, you get very little for it. So overall, the credit you receive decreases.

If enough people do this, will there come a time when it's just not worth doing anymore? And with lots of people trying to adjust or close a spread at the same time, you get slippage.

I'm not sure if what I said about spread prices are correct, or if arbitrage because of put/call parity prevent it from happening.
 
Quote from cdowis:

It all comes down to how he "speaks" to you. Does his style of trading fit you. If you are a short term trader, forget it. You need to follow his strategy for weeks before you see a profit, and if that suits you, he's the man.

Second, "once something is disseminated it's loses it's edge" is not really correct in income strategies because you are trading a long term strategy against short term traders.

They are thinking days or a week, while I am working on a month time frame.

Theta is theta, gamma is gamma, etc, and that constitutes conditions that never will go away. The edge is knowing how to use them.
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Good points :)
 
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