i would by the jun 24 call for 3.9. at 33, i bet you make 5 or 6. if it sits here, you lose < 2.
Options experts: What PTON call to buy?
- Thread starter VEGASDESERT
- Start date
Matt_ORATS
Sponsor
If you look at call spreads, here are the results with a 10% bullish assumption. Note the D% column is with the shifted distribution to make the expected value of the stock price up 10%.
Here's how I rank the columns in the table above to calculate the Rank column:
I have the distribution and forecast weighted equally and the reward risk up there too.
Here's the top ranking call spread given these inputs and my ranking:
The break even is $28.75 and the reward risk is 8.3 : 1.
Here's how I rank the columns in the table above to calculate the Rank column:
I have the distribution and forecast weighted equally and the reward risk up there too.
Here's the top ranking call spread given these inputs and my ranking:
The break even is $28.75 and the reward risk is 8.3 : 1.
Matt_ORATS
Sponsor
Here's that trade overlaid with the stock price, insider trades (note the large buy in green up arrow), valuVol shading (the green is buy and red is sell), and trendlines.
The IV/HV graph at the bottom with the earnings line in the future shows that earnings is 5/5 so the 5/6 has the earnings move.
The IV/HV graph at the bottom with the earnings line in the future shows that earnings is 5/5 so the 5/6 has the earnings move.
soooo, this isnt exactly what i had in mind. 
no sense in selling here, gotta ride it out now. buyout anyone?
no sense in selling here, gotta ride it out now. buyout anyone?
yeah, its kind of mind boggling to watch last few weeks dump into single digits.