I would not use naked calls to hedge the position. Send me an email atbethandbob203@yahoo.com and I will give you my ideas on hedges.
Option selling. Too good to continue?
- Thread starter draft730
- Start date
@draft730 , ignore the haters, and the most sensible responses you've had so far are from drcruz and SweetBobby.
I'm an option seller myself (over 10 years) but I also trade a lot of other things.
Firstly, congrats on your returns - you've more than doubled your account in 3 years.
Secondly, if you can survive Oct-Dec 2018, then you're better placed to handle future meltdowns. That pre-Chirstmas fall was the heaviest for like 90 years and Christmas Eve 2018 was the worst Christmas Eve since the beginning of the time for the SPX.
You admit that you escaped that period somewhat due to luck as opposed to any skill, but luck helps in the game.
Going forward, here's what I would suggest :
- as previously mentioned, limit your exposure (reduce lots sizes). This is THE biggest reason for traders blowing up.
- diversify using countries - sell puts on different countries indexes. Sure, worldwide equities are heavily correlated, but the London based FTSE and Germany's DAX can often diverge from the SPX.
- diversify using asset classes - sell options on currencies, commodities, treasuries, metals etc. However - be VERY careful with commodities, as some can be very volatile (eg NG as mentioned earlier in thread).
- reduce risk using variety of short strategies. You don't just need to sell naked puts - you can do credit put spreads, ratio spreads, diagonals etc. They offer controlled risk.
Tread small, tread carefully and your returns may not be what you have emotionally become accustomed to, but you will make slow and steady gains. And be able to sleep better at night.
Good luck.
I'm an option seller myself (over 10 years) but I also trade a lot of other things.
Firstly, congrats on your returns - you've more than doubled your account in 3 years.
Secondly, if you can survive Oct-Dec 2018, then you're better placed to handle future meltdowns. That pre-Chirstmas fall was the heaviest for like 90 years and Christmas Eve 2018 was the worst Christmas Eve since the beginning of the time for the SPX.
You admit that you escaped that period somewhat due to luck as opposed to any skill, but luck helps in the game.
Going forward, here's what I would suggest :
- as previously mentioned, limit your exposure (reduce lots sizes). This is THE biggest reason for traders blowing up.
- diversify using countries - sell puts on different countries indexes. Sure, worldwide equities are heavily correlated, but the London based FTSE and Germany's DAX can often diverge from the SPX.
- diversify using asset classes - sell options on currencies, commodities, treasuries, metals etc. However - be VERY careful with commodities, as some can be very volatile (eg NG as mentioned earlier in thread).
- reduce risk using variety of short strategies. You don't just need to sell naked puts - you can do credit put spreads, ratio spreads, diagonals etc. They offer controlled risk.
Tread small, tread carefully and your returns may not be what you have emotionally become accustomed to, but you will make slow and steady gains. And be able to sleep better at night.
Good luck.
Neither. See last paragraph of post 68. Follow it back. There I explained what/why skew is, which also justifies why IV and realized SHOULDN'T match.
With that said. This thread is like going down the rabbit hole while a group of people wearing helmets screams 'franks and beans' at you. Time to leave it to the experienced options traders
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The light blue is IV, the magenta is HV, which to my understanding covers the entire option chain. I believe the answer to your question is "yes, overstatement is both ATM and OTM"
There’s no difference in buying 20d puts to selling 20d puts. The expectancy is exactly the same. So if you say that selling the option has some sort of an edge over to buying it, one could sell any option and buy it’s synthetic counterpart for risk free profit.
I guess the assumption of selling options to have an edge over buying them comes from the so called risk premium, well there is a good reason for the risk premium and OP will surely realize that if he keeps trading this way.
I guess the assumption of selling options to have an edge over buying them comes from the so called risk premium, well there is a good reason for the risk premium and OP will surely realize that if he keeps trading this way.
No I wasn't looking for corroboration. My thinking was as follows... I know tail risk in ES puts is overpriced, so I have an edge selling. People tend to be more scared for black swans than they "should". (Financial media help a lot...). IV is much higher compared to ATM vol.
I made 77%, it's too much. So, certainly, I am taking too much risk. I have to cut my exposure, but by how much? This is basically what I am looking for
Do they have historical data on Greeks? Can I test a specific delta put/call and see what happened to its price after a specific period?
Ding Ding Ding.
Thst is exactly what us REAL traders have been saying while you get all knee padded for Boooby and the other guy.
Yes all the greeks and the entire option chain are there. The greeks are needed to maintain an accurate T-0 line. Monitoring the T-0 line is extremely important IMHO, both positionaly and for the entire portfolio
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Selling premium works great until it doesn't and you get your head blown off. There's not enough juice in the trade with VIX sitting at 12-14 so if you're gonna do it look for an underlying at a higher IV percentile. The great thing is you can spread off your risk you know exactly how much you can lose. Make sure to allocate based on risk rather than reward.