Option replication and exotics journal

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Quote from momoneythansens:

That sucks, bad luck. 63 cents!
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Yeah, both sub-dollar hits have occurred in the DAX.

BTW, SGX exchange Nikkei options have gone from nickels to pennies. Worth a look.
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

steps :
1.Placed a No touch (I loss if hits 5760) bet 5760 for 30d , 1.2m to win 2m.
2. Two weeks later placed a One Touch (I win if hits 5760) bet 5760 for 15d , 1.1 to win 2m
3. Two days later : price hit 5760

And I loss both bets ? I thought I will collect 2m (guarantee) on one of them for a loss of 300k ( and keep the gains from hedging , if any was done).
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===> 1.Placed a No touch (I loss if hits 5760) bet 5760 for 30d , 1.2m to win 2m.


IV - the first barrier was struck at 5650, not 5760 - so both were hit.
 
riskarb - tough trades in the dax, but you have a solid plan and management - i look fwd to following some more trades in the other markets - all the best.
 
Quote from fader:

===> 1.Placed a No touch (I loss if hits 5760) bet 5760 for 30d , 1.2m to win 2m.


IV - the first barrier was struck at 5650, not 5760 - so both were hit.
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I thought if I place 2 diff bets on the same strike , I guarantee to win one of them , like in football : if I palce on both teams I HAVE to win one of the bets.. I must be slow this morning (or I,m not using the right terminology of the bets)
Anyway , thanks for the answers , B , sorry about your loss
 
Interesting. Poor indicators often do very well with prolonged market environments that favor them.

RA, for a trader of your caliber I was wondering what kind of stats your 3 trading systems put up, especially on the spooz. I mostly look at Profit Factor, AvgTrade, Win% and how back the equity curve looks good (when does it start and stop working).

Anyway, it's probably pretty tightly tied up with an nda but if there is anything to share I'm all ears.
 
SGX Nikkei vols are soaring into the BOJ and the flood of econ statistics this week. ATM vols have rallied 500 basis in two months. There is a pronounced otm smile on puts and calls. Vols and skews have risen 200 and 100 basis respectively over the last session.

Short 50 Mar 17500 calls at 25% vols x long 15 SGXNK Mar futures

Neutral at 16,770 -- sold the calls at 200 -- long the futures from 16,700.

I'd prefer to be short some deltas, but expect to earn more on vegas than I'll lose on deltas.
 

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hi riskarb - i am curious about your choice of the strike - the 17 / 17.250 / 17.500 strikes all have ~24% implieds - the 17000 strike has (slightly) greater vega and theta than the 17.500 - i am guessing that you chose 17.5 because it's lower delta / less hedging required, at least initially? thx.
 
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