Option replication and exotics journal

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I'm short >100 of the GOOG Feb 600 calls from $3.10 when the shares were trading 470-472. Long shares into a weak synthetic straddle.

There is tremendous call skew in GOOG; deep otm strikes paying 50-700 basis over atm vols. The drop in shares makes selling the 600c a poor-play, but I wouldn't consider going inside the 580 strike.

I realize the upside risk here. I only mention it as it's my largest trade in terms of haircut right now. I am not suggesting it, but it's a decent vol-play IMO. Yes, it's risky as hell.
 
Yikes, what was the ratio of calls to the underlying (goog) again?

Perhaps I missed it, what is the update on the short es play with the single no touch underneath it with the es at multiday lows?
 
It's an absurd, palliative ratio. I am embarrassed to state it publicly. Roughly 400 shares per 100.

I did ok, but am still holding the short spoos hedge into a new 7d downside barrier.
 
Quote from riskarb:

The drop in shares makes selling the 600c a poor-play, but I wouldn't consider going inside the 580 strike.
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Why a poor play? Which other strike would you have chosen in hindsight?

MoMoney.
 
Quote from momoneythansens:

Why a poor play? Which other strike would you have chosen in hindsight?

MoMoney.
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Ahh, no, I mean a poor-play after the drop from 470.
 
The GOOG 600c closed at 45%[down from 54%] on the vol-line at $1.65. I will cover the short next week and wait for a possible short entry before earnings.

Edit: My average sale on the GOOG 600c was $2.95.
 
Quote from riskarb:

The GOOG 600c closed at 45%[down from 54%] on the vol-line at $1.65. I will cover the short next week and wait for a possible short entry before earnings.

Edit: My average sale on the GOOG 600c was $2.95.
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NIce trade. I was just curious--in that situation would you ever consider putting on a 1X2 or more spread (ratio spread), buying a lower vol, lower strike call and selling many more higher vol. higher vol calls? Or is it easier (for you) to buy the stock?

When I read your post the first time, I just had to cringe, remembering the time I heard that someone sold some way otm AMZN calls a day or so before expiration, right before Blodgett made his famous AMZN to 200 (or so) call. Calls went from 1 to 30 something.

GOOG reminds me so much like AMZN, YHOO, and other bubble-era stocks. People keep buying it because it goes up, and they are making money buying calls, straddles, shares on margin--whatever. They will make money. as long as they get out in time. Few ever do.
 
Any ratio would've incurred more upside deltas than I wanted to hold. I don't like selling +dgamma, but the vols were nearing 1000bp over the atm. I was initially looking to buy some 450 or 470 calls, but decided I would buy some vol later if the shares broke 485.

The overwrite did better under 1sigma up\down than the ratio write, so I concluded it was a reasonable risk to take. I had planned to buy itm calls to match the contract-gammas of the 600c, and offset shares if the shares trade beyond 1sigma by 5-7 points[sigmas to Feb exp]. The itm calls[otm puts] are -skew.

Skews and strips have dropped so much that I'd be a buyer of atm vol here to hold into 2-3 days before the report, but I don't see any significant increase in strips or vol curvature into the release.

Yes, a risk-trade with some added vol-edge. Thankfully the Reg-T is such that it keeps people from taking on insane size.
 
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