Option Question about Delta

atticus · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from bwolinsky:

I don't know what you mean by "don't use delta." It is not a probability, so in that sense it should not be used to predict ITM probability.

Delta will tell you approximately how much the option will move for a $1 change in underlying...I think I've said this five times already.

Delta as hedge ratio. So that FTR 5c should move 0.51 on a $1 move?

atticus · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from atticus:

Now you done done it!1

Beau?

bwolinsky · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from atticus:

Delta as hedge ratio. So that FTR 5c should move 0.51 on a $1 move?

The FTR 5 cent is 0.0075 so that would move less than 1 cent and the other FTR is 0.06 something so those are so far otm that delta wouldn't be a consideration.

I'm assuming you're asking about the .51 delta on the $5 strike. That one would move from $.15 to $0.66 for FTR increasing $1 to $6.

The percentage epsilon leverage factor is $0.66/$0.15-1=3.4. The option would increase 340% for a 20% move in the underlying. Leverage factor is then 3.4/0.2=17, meaning you could make 17 times the percentage change in the underlying's 20% move, which isn't likely.

If you were trying to double your money on $10,000, the way to use delta by anticipating the $1 move would require an investment of $20,000/(1+3.4)=$4,545.45=$4545.45/$150=30 Contracts. Let's see the math here.

30 contracts make $0.51 or $510 per contract moves 30*$510=15,300+(10,000-4500)=$20,800.

atticus · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from bwolinsky:

The FTR 5 cent is 0.0075 so that would move less than 1 cent and the other FTR is 0.06 something so those are so far otm that delta wouldn't be a consideration.

I'm assuming you're asking about the .51 delta on the $5 strike. That one would move from $.15 to $0.66 for FTR increasing $1 to $6.

The percentage epsilon leverage factor is $0.66/$0.15-1=3.4. The option would increase 340% for a 20% move in the underlying. Leverage factor is then 3.4/0.2=17, meaning you could make 17 times the percentage change in the underlying's 20% move, which isn't likely.

If you were trying to double your money on $10,000, the way to use delta by anticipating the $1 move would require an investment of $20,000/(1+3.4)=$4,545.45=$4545.45/$150=30 Contracts. Let's see the math here.

30 contracts make $0.51 or $510 per contract moves 30*$510=15,300+(10,000-4500)=$20,800.

The 5C is .5147. I am not referring to the nickel offer calls. We can talk about those if you like.

Would you now attempt to speak rationally and coherently on whether the delta of the 5C delta abides by your CFA definition? That's all.

bwolinsky · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from bwolinsky:

The FTR 5 cent is 0.0075 so that would move less than 1 cent and the other FTR is 0.06 something so those are so far otm that delta wouldn't be a consideration.

I'm assuming you're asking about the .51 delta on the $5 strike. That one would move from $.15 to $0.66 for FTR increasing $1 to $6.

The percentage epsilon leverage factor is $0.66/$0.15-1=3.4. The option would increase 340% for a 20% move in the underlying. Leverage factor is then 3.4/0.2=17, meaning you could make 17 times the percentage change in the underlying's 20% move, which isn't likely.

If you were trying to double your money on $10,000, the way to use delta by anticipating the $1 move would require an investment of $10,000/(1+3.4)=$2272.27=$2272.27/$150=15 Contracts. Let's see the math here.

15 contracts make $0.51 or $510 per contract moves 15 contracts*$660/contract+(10000-2250)=$17650

bwolinsky · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from atticus:

The 5C is .5147

Would you now attempt to speak rationally and coherently on whether the delta of the 5C delta abides by your CFA definition? That's all.

Delta's not a probability. It isn't likely FTR will move $1 which is what we'd expect the option to move, also. Since it won't, the option will behave according to delta up until the point where options call buyers realize it's going up to the next strike, and that will change delta's value whenever that happens.

atticus · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from bwolinsky:

Delta's not a probability. It isn't likely FTR will move $1 which is what we'd expect the option to move. Since it won't, the option will behave according to delta up until the point where options call buyers realize it's going up to the next strike, and that will change delta's value whenever that happens.

Yes folks, he typed it.

bwolinsky · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from atticus:

Yes folks, he typed it.

Now the $5 at this strike, but as FTR approaches $6 the delta will continue to indicate a value that previously approaches the $1 increase in the option.

atticus · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from bwolinsky:

Now the $5 at this strike, but as FTR approaches $6 the delta will continue to indicate a value that previously approaches the $1 increase in the option.

You inferring a discrete/continuous change (curvature from gamma) but it's not aligned with your CFA definition. So you CFA definition is shit. The "call buyer's realize" line was embarrassing.

bwolinsky · Jan 11, 2012

Quote from atticus:

You inferring a discrete change (curvature from gamma) but it's not aligned with your CFA definition. So you CFA definition is shit.

No, it's not. The CFA definition exists in an academic vacuum. Just because the delta isn't $1 exactly doesn't mean that as you change the values of the options and underlying you won't get a consistent answer that can approximate percentage changes in the option that you can use for your hedge ratio.

It's not irrational to think that FTR going up $1 means there would be an option with at least $1 of intrinsic value, but until you know the options prices as that change takes place it will continue to be the most likely predictor of percentage changes the option will have as you increase the underlying.