Option Experts

Here is another chart showing something that I find interesting.

Look at how price acted today on a chart using 60 min candles.

All day long, price could not get above the midline of that wide range bar to the left. The market didn't tank, but it couldn't break through that point either.

Check it out. We are at what my teacher used to call an "impasse".
 

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And here is the last one

I am putting this one here to show how important it is to have a context for your trading decisions.

What you can see is a LRC (Linear Regression Channel). I don't want to get into the debate about whether this is a good or bad way to go. Do the research yourselves.

What I want to say is this. You (everyone) needs a framework within which to evaluate the data. You have to have a way of looking at things that serves as a basis for your decision making process. I use this. Whatever you choose, just make sure that you have some basic ground from which to work.

The blue lines are my analysis of the market. I am not willing to talk about how I decide to place these. What I will say is that price seems to respect these lines, and if/when it "takes them out" it will have to be on a strong impulse move. If not then we will have what is called a "failure move", and that is likely to be on a strong impulse move as well. One that is aimed at freezing the retail crowd, leaving them stranded at these prices (and above).
 

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Quote from steve46:

I did not say TA was wrong. I said Elliot Wave was crap. I'll stand by that.

I have posted quite a few charts in my time here. I always notate them myself using my own method of analysis. You're the one looking for help. Go review the posts.

What I will say here is that I use the same support and resistance that everyone else here can see if they take a moment.

I also use pivots, volume and the experience gained after 15 years of struggling to get it right. Nowadays, when I am wrong it is because I have been lazy or in a hurry. Otherwise, if I take the time to look at things carefully, it becomes pretty clear where we are going.

All trading is about probabilities and about tests. The market is always testing some price level. Those of us who make a living in this business know how to wait and watch until the market shows us a direction. Thats why there is no need to use astrology or coin flipping or anything other than a sharp eye and common sense. Unfortunately common sense is hard to come by here.

Attached is ONE (1) chart. The way I see it price has to move through a channel in order to start a swing up. If it does not get above the channel in my chart I expect it to visit 1220 and as people say, "it will get ugly"...
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Hi Steve
Sorry, I obviously misunderstood your original post. I thought you were debunking all t.a. not just EW. Btw, I'm not looking for help with t.a. :).
Best
daddy's boy
 
Quote from Eliot Hosewater:

Read Van Tharp's book. Random entry beats most methods. Money management and position sizing are more important.



You sound like a legend in your own mind.
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1) What is the title of this book?

2) The man who will succeed is he who thinks he can.
 
Quote from rallymode:

You ask for advice and then you call the responses dumb? Whether any useful info is being offered or not, that's still not the way to get any further help. Consider the audience after all which you are also a part of.

Good luck with your "edge".
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If I HAD the edge I speak of, I would not have started this post.
I did not call ALL of the responses dumb...

YOU are the reason this post is still going.

I welcome all ideas but when I ask what color is the sky and someone tells me they like to fling poo, that has nothing to do with anything. MY reason to start the thread is to refine a system and to get an Edge over everyone else, to limit the risk, to gain higher probabilities. NOT to gamble or play the lottery. I can go to poker stars for that.
 
Quote from jj90:

It's good that your aggressive, the markets are not a place for someone that never takes risk. But remember not taking a position is a position of it's own. It may sound cliched but pride is the sign of a foolish man.

Now about edges. If you really think you know something that nobody else does, start a journal and post your market calls/trades. The market will prove you right or wrong and you'll see if you really have an edge.

You already stated you are all about direction. So my question to you is, why trade options? You can do the same with stocks with less slippage. This is a multi dimensional game while stocks are one dimensional.
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1) I am starting a journal, but I will not be posting it anywhere.
(I wish I could go to a place where I could do that without some freak popping up telling me why nothing works).

2) if I am able to predict direction with good to great accuracy options will give me more leverage. If the underlying raises 10% or more, my option can raise 50% or more. It makes more sence to me. I am NOT an investor, I am not interested to buy and hold. I want profits today and I am gone tomorrow.
 
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