Option Experts

[jj90]

Looking off your trades alone, starting from the MSFT trade as the most dated, most of your trades have been the "lottery ticket" type. The NTRI long OTM put spread, the VIX fly, the MSFT OTM calendar, the NXTP puts. These are low probability, low risk, high reward types. So get used to losing a lot of those and hitting the occasional big winner.

Now the CSCO double OTM calendar is a different story. 1st, have a look at the premium you are selling, 0.1 and 0.2. That is virtually negating the long gamma in the longs with no compensation by theta. 2nd, CSCO has been dead for a few years. Volatility is low and this is reflected in the premiums. Chances of a IV increase are slim.

So it looks like you like defined risk type trades. Naked short strangles/straddles, ratio spreads etc are out. If you like low risk type directional trades, learn to get real good at feeling the underlying.

 

[youngtradersla]

Quote from jj90:

Here's your problem, you think you know something. Try going under the assumption that you don't know jack, and then place a bet. When you try to rationalize something, you have already made up your mind. So look at it objectively, trade off a coin toss and use money management like your right hand.

That sounds pretty dumb to me. The whole idea of trading is that I have an edge over everyone else, I have some information that YOU do not. IF I don't know where the UNDERLYING is goin, why would I trade it? If I flip a freakin coin to make a trade I have a 50% chance of being wrong. If I use some grey matter in this decision I can cut that chance to much less. (I know I will not always be right, but I am going to do everything I can to have a better chance of being right.) Be it waves, P/E, political cycles, or astrology.

P.S. Sorry dad, my bad, too much to say too fast, this is an aggressive place (from my brousing) and I like to fight with morons while I extract good information to better myself while the rest of the group try to pull everyone else down to their own level. - It entertains me.

 

[youngtradersla]

Quote from jj90:

Looking off your trades alone, starting from the MSFT trade as the most dated, most of your trades have been the "lottery ticket" type. The NTRI long OTM put spread, the VIX fly, the MSFT OTM calendar, the NXTP puts. These are low probability, low risk, high reward types. So get used to losing a lot of those and hitting the occasional big winner.

Now the CSCO double OTM calendar is a different story. 1st, have a look at the premium you are selling, 0.1 and 0.2. That is virtually negating the long gamma in the longs with no compensation by theta. 2nd, CSCO has been dead for a few years. Volatility is low and this is reflected in the premiums. Chances of a IV increase are slim.

So it looks like you like defined risk type trades. Naked short strangles/straddles, ratio spreads etc are out. If you like low risk type directional trades, learn to get real good at feeling the underlying.

Ya know what?
You do have a point there. Let it be known that I was expecting the direction to hit the numbers played, but I also did know that the prob was slim. I am looking at an NTRI put spread about 50-55 for Dec. (I think it will get there and maybe even lower.) I do not think that is very lotto like and the others, so I think I am actually learning.

I have decided to pick an actual target and give myself 30-60 days longer to get there, then pick the best spread to profit from my predictions.

-If I do anything less or anything else, I may as well play a slot machine. For me it's all about direction direction direction.

It is funny what happens when a stranger tells you something you kind already know... IT HITS HOME! Thank you everyone, my aggressive attitude is spilling into my trades and screwing them all up!.

 

[segv]

Quote from youngtradersla:

That sounds pretty dumb to me. The whole idea of trading is that I have an edge over everyone else, I have some information that YOU do not. IF I don't know where the UNDERLYING is goin, why would I trade it? If I flip a freakin coin to make a trade I have a 50% chance of being wrong. If I use some grey matter in this decision I can cut that chance to much less. (I know I will not always be right, but I am going to do everything I can to have a better chance of being right.) Be it waves, P/E, political cycles, or astrology

Please PM me. I have a set of petrified chicken bones that belonged to Jesus, and I am willing to part with them at a very reasonable price.

-segv

 

[Eliot Hosewater]

Quote from youngtradersla:

That sounds pretty dumb to me. The whole idea of trading is that I have an edge over everyone else, I have some information that YOU do not. IF I don't know where the UNDERLYING is goin, why would I trade it? If I flip a freakin coin to make a trade I have a 50% chance of being wrong. If I use some grey matter in this decision I can cut that chance to much less. (I know I will not always be right, but I am going to do everything I can to have a better chance of being right.) Be it waves, P/E, political cycles, or astrology.

Read Van Tharp's book. Random entry beats most methods. Money management and position sizing are more important.

P.S. Sorry dad, my bad, too much to say too fast, this is an aggressive place (from my brousing) and I like to fight with morons while I extract good information to better myself while the rest of the group try to pull everyone else down to their own level. - It entertains me.

You sound like a legend in your own mind.

 

[rallymode]

Quote from youngtradersla:

That sounds pretty dumb to me. The whole idea of trading is that I have an edge over everyone else, I have some information that YOU do not.

You ask for advice and then you call the responses dumb? Whether any useful info is being offered or not, that's still not the way to get any further help. Consider the audience after all which you are also a part of.

Good luck with your "edge".

 

[jj90]

Quote from youngtradersla:

That sounds pretty dumb to me. The whole idea of trading is that I have an edge over everyone else, I have some information that YOU do not. IF I don't know where the UNDERLYING is goin, why would I trade it? If I flip a freakin coin to make a trade I have a 50% chance of being wrong. If I use some grey matter in this decision I can cut that chance to much less. (I know I will not always be right, but I am going to do everything I can to have a better chance of being right.) Be it waves, P/E, political cycles, or astrology.

P.S. Sorry dad, my bad, too much to say too fast, this is an aggressive place (from my brousing) and I like to fight with morons while I extract good information to better myself while the rest of the group try to pull everyone else down to their own level. - It entertains me.

It's good that your aggressive, the markets are not a place for someone that never takes risk. But remember not taking a position is a position of it's own. It may sound cliched but pride is the sign of a foolish man.

Now about edges. If you really think you know something that nobody else does, start a journal and post your market calls/trades. The market will prove you right or wrong and you'll see if you really have an edge.

You already stated you are all about direction. So my question to you is, why trade options? You can do the same with stocks with less slippage. This is a multi dimensonal game while stocks are one dimensonal.

 

[forex-forex]

Quote from youngtradersla:
Is there anyone here who would be willing to view my trades I have made to tell me what the hell I am doing wrong?
Or can someone point me in the direction of how to have someone review my record, my, lost almost every trade this year and I am about to give up but doin't want to record. . .

Quote from youngtradersla:
The whole idea of trading is that I have an edge over everyone else, I have some information that YOU do not. IF I don't know where the UNDERLYING is goin, why would I trade it? If I flip a freakin coin to make a trade I have a 50% chance of being wrong. If I use some grey matter in this decision I can cut that chance to much less.

Major change from your first post to your last post within two days.

 

[daddy'sboy]

Quote from steve46:

Hello:

I would just like to say this again to emphasize my point.

Elliot wave is about on par with astrology as a way of providing a constructive context for trading.

To put it more directly, while the concept of cyclical analysis is productive in engineering and other sciences, in trading it has no predictive value. If there were something to it, you would hear much more about it, not only here at ET, but in also in the public domain. Unfortunately Elliot wave as developed by Ralph Elliot and practiced by Prechter and others, is pure crap. You would do just as well to toss a coin to generate trading signals. Sorry about that.

Thank you

Steve

Hi Steve
Funny to see you debunking the t.a. crowd.
Maybe you can enlighten us here on what you use to enter your option trades - coin toss?
daddy's boy

 

[steve46]

I did not say TA was wrong. I said Elliot Wave was crap. I'll stand by that.

I have posted quite a few charts in my time here. I always notate them myself using my own method of analysis. You're the one looking for help. Go review the posts.

What I will say here is that I use the same support and resistance that everyone else here can see if they take a moment.

I also use pivots, volume and the experience gained after 15 years of struggling to get it right. Nowadays, when I am wrong it is because I have been lazy or in a hurry. Otherwise, if I take the time to look at things carefully, it becomes pretty clear where we are going.

All trading is about probabilities and about tests. The market is always testing some price level. Those of us who make a living in this business know how to wait and watch until the market shows us a direction. Thats why there is no need to use astrology or coin flipping or anything other than a sharp eye and common sense. Unfortunately common sense is hard to come by here.

Attached is ONE (1) chart. The way I see it price has to move through a channel in order to start a swing up. If it does not get above the channel in my chart I expect it to visit 1220 and as people say, "it will get ugly"...