Opportunity Knocks- EMC

S

stonedinvestor

Hello stock fans. Well all this talk of mega cap just drives me up the wall of course. If I told you the number of times I have gutted my account to put " safe " names in only to see them sink even faster in a correction....

EMC though may be a real opportunity. Last week it got 2 downgrades, this should of really taken the steam out of the stock and it did to some extent- it advances like a snail, but they do report tomorrow and so I'm feeling more and more it's time to go with EMC.

The simple reason: does what they do ever go out of style? It's an IBM of their section of tech and it costs $20 not $80 something.

EMC of course is about to have a big spinout IPO and these are not good times for IPO's,
the last two sucked... so is that holding the stock back as well? Whatever the market conditions I think VMware will do well-

If it soars in it's late August debut, analysts are going to be forced to value VMware at roughly $10 billion or more..., And all of that goodness of course eventually falls back to EMC still holding 90% of the company.

This deal smells like money but shouldn't the stock be thrusting up higher? In classic tech read Yes but once again the two downgrades the iffy IPO market...

Let's not lose fact of the point- THE STOCK IS STILL LOOKING FAB on a chart despite the slow advance. Might this advance get an ignition spark tomorrow?

Then again the whole NASDOG is looking like a head and shoulder and a failed right one at that.....

A few days ago when the bottom fell out of the market what did EMC do? Not much folks in a good way...that is a sign of stealthy institutional buying

LET'S NOT FORGET MINI GREEN ANGLE to VMware IPO they can cut companies' technology-related energy bills by 40%, and with the Senate recently passing the pro-renewable energy bill, VMware will likely benefit! Also " green " investing is here to stay folks. This should add a fire to the ipo. While we are at at why not just put in for the IPO too?
I'll get back to you all in a bit... ~ stoney.

ps: EMC has just started the "road-trip" of VMware to the major investment banks and they'll certainly want in.
 
3:55 and stoney is IN BIG BAD BORING EMC!!!!

You see I CAN buy LARGE CAP if you beat me over the head every day long enough. Let's see how it works out on the earnings call. I will certainly NOT be getting the IPO however it's el tougho to ghetto.... SI
 
I actually sold today for a decent profit from $17.50.


After they announced Vmware, the stock ramped up slowly from $15 to almost $20.


Does this stock have great potential ? Absolutely.


But, the whole earnings game is bs. God forbid if u miss by 3 cents, then your last 30 days of profits in EMC, wiped away.

I'll be buying after earnings, even after a gap up.
 
Stoney - Welcome back to the "real" world.

My mega-cap tech name (and I'm holding a shit-load in an IRA) is CSCO. EMC sure has the prettier chart, but it looks to me like CSCO is just beginning their upward move off of the May lows.

A couple of recent quotes from Chambers:

Speaking at the 2007 Cisco Partner Summit in Las Vegas earlier this month, Chambers told some 2,500 partners that it was time to jump on the Web 2.0 bandwagon.

"I don't think there's ever been a better opportunity to be in this industry, a better time," Chambers said during a keynote address at the conference.

Another one:

Top telecommunications executives attending an industry conference this week forecast wireless, video and Internet services would increasingly converge, bolstering demand for Internet network capacity.

Cisco Systems Inc. Chief Executive John Chambers, speaking at the NXTcomm communications conference in Chicago, said demand for bandwidth would likely grow 300 percent to 500 percent each year in the next several years, a trend that will likely lift Cisco's sales of routers.

There was also an interesting Letter to the Editor in the current Barron's from a NT exec about bandwidth demand. Check it out if you haven't already seen it.

There are many great plays out there for this web 2.0 boom. I just think there are few companies that are as well positioned as CSCO which will also be a big player in IPTV with Scientific Atlanta.

CSCO had a very nice move up today, breaking resistance at 30.00 on good volume while the NDAQ was basically flat. Very good action in my opinion, as CSCO has recently seemed to have an identity crisis and a tendency to just trade with the overall market.

Looking for $35 by Sept., $40 by the end of the year.

No - it won't have a 20% day like your REDF pick (I'm still kicking myself for missing that one), but a slow steady, fairly safe bet in my mind. And these guys never miss earnings.
 
TopD wow what a world it is. One minute teetering off a cliff, and then I started drinking each day...then bouncing off my 50 day too many times, each time my support is weaker but I kept up the pace. It seemed every day I drank the DOW was up, 10 out of 12 at one point. Finally I gave in, my liver was killing me and then we had the 190 point plunge of course> so I re took to bottle by 3:00pm and the market mounted a nice comeback. Indeed any month now I feel like I will fall. into the abyss. But enough about me.

That REDF what a f*ing monster I got some nice lots off at $28 at the hedge fund account but of course I refuse to let up the dream of a buyout and it's still sitting there for all to see on Covestor in my personal..

This is tough sledding for me TD, arguing with the wife over how to wash chicken and actually contemplating divorce at one point as it escalated and escalated... can you say burnt out? Anyway fighting through the driving rain home, ferry rides, smelly dog, packed car, wet highways, accidents on the road,all to arrive in front of a computer at 1:00.

Having speed researched all my watch names I proceed to get close to six trades off in two hours and some good ones too. Of course the board is a mess I had left on some risky trades and taken the computer to the beach assuming someone would have WIFI through the DISH but no go. It was murder sitting back without a computer on Fire Island and just monitoring the market through Bloomberg and CNBC. Boy that Bob Passani what an idiot. Anyway yes everyone " must " have some Mega in the account and I see the merits of your pick.. it looks like right place right time for CSCO... but I'm a Aruba Net guy for the wireless stuff, and that CEO Chambers he's swarmy in a nudist colony sort of way. EMC is as good as any they are somewhat interchangeable; I noticed some 7% jumping about in big names like JNPR and 4% moves in csco, the buying power is now there to move these behemoths- does EMC have enough foreign sales? that is the question I guess Fingers crossed. I think they report in the morning.

Great to be back! Now for the ELEVEN baby mice on glue pads under my stove! ~ stoney
 
Stoney, All I can say is welcome back! Sorry to hear of your trials and tribulations but I for one am glad to see you back and posting.

I encourage all to study Stoney's posts carefully. Some may seem to be ramblings, but there is wisdom within as well as between the lines, I assure you.
 
Drum Roll Please....

EMC Reports Record Second-Quarter Results
DESPITE DOWNGRADES and WIESMAN selling!
Balanced, Double-Digit Revenue Growth in Systems, Software and Services and Across All Major Geographies
July 24, 2007: 07:00 AM EST
Gotta Be A WORLD Leader!

HOPKINTON, Mass., July 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- EMC Corporation , the world LEADER in information infrastructure solutions, today reported RECORD second-quarter revenue and STRONG profit growth marked by double-digit revenue growth in its systems, software and services businesses and across ALL MAJOR geographies. EMC has now delivered double-digit top-line growth for 16 consecutive quarters.
21% Q2 GROWTH YOY!!! Find that in other tech stocks!

Total consolidated revenue for the second quarter of 2007 was $3.12 billion, 21% higher than the $2.57 billion reported for the second quarter of 2006.

Income SOARS 33%!!!!

GAAP net income for the second quarter of 2007 was $334.4 million or $0.16 per diluted share, 33% higher than the GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.12 reported for the year-ago period.

A CASH FLOW MONSTER!! UP 59%!!!!!!

EMC generated strong operating cash flow of $622 million, an increase of 59%, and free cash flow of $422 million, an increase of 123%, compared with the same period a year ago.

Stonedinvestor said, "EMC executed well in the second quarter. Customers continued to choose EMC for the depth and breadth of their information infrastructure technologies and solutions, which translated into solid revenue growth that was well balanced across EMC's systems, software and services businesses and all major geographies. Add to this the EXPLOSION of digital information and the POSITIVE 2007 IT spending outlook we see in all major geographies, and it is clear that EMC is in a SWEET SPOT of the IT industry."

Software license and maintenance revenue increased 27% year-over-year, led by strong customer demand for RSA's security offerings (remember them?) and for VMware Virtual Infrastructure. Software license and maintenance revenue accounted for 41% of total revenue in the quarter. Professional services, systems maintenance and other services revenue grew by 18%, driven by double-digit services growth in all four major EMC business segments. Professional services, systems maintenance and other services represented 16% of total second-quarter revenue.

Hey EMC is doing OK in the USA!- Up 20%
Rev From Overseas grew 23% Asia Pacific & Japan on Fire! Sales Up 32%!

For the second-quarter of 2007, revenue from North America increased 20% compared with the same period a year ago and represented 58% of total reported revenue. Revenue from operations outside of North America grew 23% year- over-year, highlighted by double-digit year-over-year revenue growth in EMC's major international regions: Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA); Latin America and Asia-Pacific and Japan (APJ). APJ, which experienced 32% revenue growth year-over-year, retained its distinction as EMC's fastest-growing major international region for the second straight quarter.

Stonedinvestor new EMC shareholder said:"Looking across their business, I am pleased with their strong, balanced performance and the progress EMC is making towards its 2007 operational and financial goals. I believe EMC IS NOW on track to EXCEED the annual targets they set in January." In other words I AM RAISING guidance!!!

VMware Update*
VMware, an EMC subsidiary, grew sales 89% year-over-year to $298 million during the second quarter as it continued to unlock the value of virtualization for existing and new customers around the world. During the quarter, the virtualization leader broadened its product portfolio with new releases of its award-winning virtual desktop software and continued to expand its network of technology and distribution partners. VMware recently announced that Intel Corporation, through its global investment arm, Intel Capital, has agreed to become an investor. The partial initial public offering (IPO) of VMware is expected to be completed this summer.

Well for ALL THE RISK I TOOK I'm sure the payout will be puny it looks only up a smudge in the pre that's the type of stock EMC is frustrating one- but in a world of Mega Tech Gotta Have One I think I did a pretty good job of picking one on the way up.

I think the stock will come close to doubling in the next year despite what Motley Fools has to say.
~ stoney

* Consolidated revenue for 2007 is expected to exceed $12.7 billion.
* GAAP diluted earnings per share for 2007 are expected to exceed $0.64.
 
See. here ya go. EMC beats earnings by 1 cent, and now the stock is down 2.5% to $19.00.


Granted the market is down 100 points.
 
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