Opening Range Breakout, for Futures and Equities

M.R.

Thank you for your efforts. Your laying out the Orb in a well written concise manner that is ET archive-quality.

However, Much of this has been discussed and I think you are assuming that the traders here have not discussed the Orb in great detail.

Carry on, as I believe your writing expertise might still enlighten many...and maybe for those that are experienced in Orb, they might find a precious gem hidden in this review of it.

Thank you again, :)

Michael B.
 
Quote from Murray Ruggiero:

My work has covered everything from breakout trading, Elliott wave, Intermarket analysis, short term swing trading and Wyckoff. You can see I have covered almost everything so my work has something for everyone.

In terms of trend following, breakout trading you are correct you only win 40%-50% of your trades but your average win/loss ratio is 2-1 or with a good system close to 3-1. What is happening is the distribution of trades has a fat tail in the positive direction. This is why trend following makes money.

If the markets had a normal distribution trend following breakout type methods would not work but the markets do not. Major once in a lifetime events happen much more than one in a lifetime, trend following is always on the correct side of them.

Let's look at the game, its a coin flip game, but when you win I pay you 3.00 on your dollar bet, and you lose a dollar when you lose. If you have enough money to detail with losing 10-15 in a row, this game will make you rich.

Let’s look at another game; we will call it the sunny day game. Let's assume it does not rain 66% of the time where you are.
If you guess dry, you will 1.20 for every dollar you bet. Even though you will 66% of your trades this game loses. Money.

I hope this helps.
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The only way trading can be compared to flipping a coin is when the flipper has no clue of the direction of the Market. What you show traders has to be accompanied be a heavy dose of psychology because the losing percentage is so large. I prefer a greater win percentage. It's less stressful.
 
Well I looked at the two sample videos on your site and they are not bad. However, I think that a shipping cost of $10.45 for a $19.95 product is a bit out of line. I can't believe that you could not ship a CD/DVD in one of those US Post Office $3.85 Flat Rate Priority Mail Envelopes.
http://postcalc.usps.gov/mailpiecedimensions.asp#Package

If you want to use the DVD as a basis for this discussion what about a reasonable shipping cost like $4.00?
 
Quote from Whimsy:

Well I looked at the two sample videos on your site and they are not bad. However, I think that a shipping cost of $10.45 for a $19.95 product is a bit out of line. I can't believe that you could not ship a CD/DVD in one of those US Post Office $3.85 Flat Rate Priority Mail Envelopes.
http://postcalc.usps.gov/mailpiecedimensions.asp#Package

If you want to use the DVD as a basis for this discussion what about a reasonable shipping cost like $4.00?
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Not to be rude or skeptical, but I cant believe anything worth selling for $19.95 is that valuable...

And if it was, why would be selling it so cheap, if at all?
 
Quote from Murray Ruggiero:



I will think over the weekend and share my thoughts with you next week and try to put a new light on this classic methodology.
If you have any questions feel free to ask and I will do my best to answer , what I can.
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Would you give some examples when they develop ? Per example : QQQQ is a good candidate for ORB trade today,use xyz multiplier. That would have a real value for everyone.
 
Quote from Murray Ruggiero:

What this means is that if you test opening range breakout system on daily bars the next open can only appear in the order for the stop price. You can't use it for the condition to enable the order. In addition we can not put a protective stop on the entry bar because we would not be sure which one got hit first.
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How do you deal with daily bars that trade both above _and_ below your buy entry level and your sell entry level? How do you know which one hit first?

You mentioned the ORB hasn't worked very well recently. Do you have annual or monthly historical returns? It would be interesting to see if ORB has gone through lousy periods in the past and then come back to perform well, or if this is a new and unprecedented lousy period.

Aaron Schindler
Schindler Trading
 
Let me tell you why TradersStudio is selling this video for $19.95, with a list price of $34.95. TradersStudio decided to discount the video because it is a loss leader for them, kind of like a grocery store selling Milk at a loss just to get people into the store. TradersStudio paid for the production, the trip to Atlanta as well as paying me for the copyright on the content, so they could do what they want with it. In this video I used TradersStudio to do the analysis. They wanted to be able to give away the first 20 minutes of the video, to get registrations on the site. This factor effected there pricing decisions. In terms of the postage ,I discussed it with TradersStudio it has been adjusted.

The analysis being taught can be tested with other platforms, but TradersStudio is powerful because I was able to create the kind of tables in Crabel’s book on a large portfolio of markets using TradersStudio’s custom reports with just a few mouse clicks. TradersStudio bought the rights to this video from me and decided to sell it like this.

If you register on the site and watch the second free part, which requires registration you will find some real gems. This is where I discuss the entry methods of all three traders, including content, which is in the Legendary Crabel book. In addition I discuss the concepts I have discovered relating to big range days. If you register and watch part 2, you will see that even what I am giving away is worth 10 times what the video costs, and the parts of the video only available to people who purchase it have even more valuable content.

Some of you might not want to register because you are afraid of a lot of junk e-mails. Well TradersStudio does not sell it’s list and will never send out spam mail they will only E-Mail to keep you updated about what is happening at TradersStudio.com or to give you free educational content, for example they currently have a free introductory course on system development which registered members can receive. You can register at

http://www.tradersstudio.com/Default.aspx?tabid=56
 
We tested ORB on daily data in this video by first only testing the long and short side separately. In additon we did what Crabel calls bias test, for example we only go long if Close<Open and short if Close>Open on the previous day.
 
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