Quote from LivermoresGhost:
What a load of crap. So now you're saying that people would start to consider using it? What if the ORB strategy stops working now until the end of the year? Honestly Murray, I think your work sucks. For example, you state that you have to know which patterns to use in trading the stock indices and then when to use them. That's like saying that you need to buy when there's an up pattern and to sell when there's a down pattern. The reason you may have found one or two patterns that consistently work is because you were lucky, given the infinite number of patterns that one could find. Don't worry; these patterns will break down shortly as well, just after you collect your consulting fees. It's the nature of the market.
I wanted to answer both LivermoresGhost and hans37
It always amazes me how when people try to post something of value, they get attacked, not just me but also others members. First of all LivermoresGhost is implying I found a few curve fitted patterns and that why my opening range breakout stuff backtests well. Since you are channeling Livermore, I guess you know I did not invent opening range break. Opening range breakout was invented in the mid 1980's and made popular by Crabel, Williams and Knight. My opening range breakout work was to modernize the work of Crabel in his book that is out of print. In Crabel's original work he did many studies using a fixed numerical offset for each market. This was why I updated the research. I tested the NR, WR patterns updated to today's markets. I also wanted to do this analysis on a portfolio basis since Crabel did not have the software available to do this type of analysis when he did his original writing. Opening range breakout profits are correlated to volatility and that is why it has not worked well in the stock indexes the past few years but very well in Natural Gas, so it not like it has not worked at all.
The old time master traders, who charted by hand, got a handle on price movement which todayâs traders don't have because they have never drawn a hand chart. I think doing a hand chart of your favorite markets at least once is a good exercise. Because these masters hand charted, they learned to understand price movement of a given market. If you understand why opening range breakout works, something Livermore would understand, it is because as a market moves away from the open it becomes harder for a trader to enter at that new price because of fear. The trader is afraid of buying the high or selling the low of the day. This is also why the direction of yesterday's close effects how well these breakouts work. If we had a down day yesterday, that increases the fear of going long. Remember the markets are a mechanism to take money from many people and give it to a few.
You accused me of finding curve fitted patterns. I have written for over ten years that you need to understand why any patterns or methods you develop work. Some of the methodologies are easier than others to understand, for example the relationship between Bonds and Silver, while other methods require understanding mass psychology and game theory.
I have written over 140 articles and I use my real name. I have published many systems that have worked well, some of them for 10 years or more. I am sure that you can find some cases where they did not, but you need to look at my body of work as a whole. As a body of work, my research has stood the test of time.
In addition you make comments about me charging high consulting fees and giving little value in return. When I do one on one consulting. I try to teach people to do their own research, how to understand the markets. If you give a man a fish you feed him for one day. If you teach him to fish you feed him for a lifetime. You also make it sound like, I publish my best stuff on ET and in Futures Magazine. I do publish some very good material, but not all of my research; I do save things for myself.
Yes, I have a dual purpose on this site. I want to tell people about TradersStudio and help spread the word, but I do that mixed with education. I pay to be able to market on ET and people like me allow this site to remain free and open.