Opening Orders - 2009

Carlos11 · Apr 2, 2009

Quote from total_keops:

2 cents per share per day, 250 days per year on a 40$ average stock makes a 12.5% annual return without compounding.

Indeed that is a nice return if it was guaranteed, but it's not. Also, i can't say for certain, but i doubt the avergae stock price is $40. I have about 200 stocks on my opening spreadsheets and the avergage is closer to $20-$25 now.

If you are willing to trade the size (Lescor does for one), then a person can make a decent living just trading openings. But the average person doesn't trade that size off the open, especially in this market, and isn't willing to trade the fill properly to see the return.

For what it's worth, i've traded the open for some time up until the new year. The returns just weren't there anymore to justify the risk i was taking. For me, this strategy simply is not AS profitable as it was. What that is attributed to - who knows.

NYC212 · Apr 2, 2009

Quote from Carlos11:

For what it's worth, i've traded the open for some time up until the new year. The returns just weren't there anymore to justify the risk i was taking. For me, this strategy simply is not AS profitable as it was. What that is attributed to - who knows.

same boat as you. cannot figure out happened.

the gaps are too much. I would have been crushed if I did openings today

total_keops · Apr 2, 2009

Quote from Mikecon:

8 fills, got destroyed on BNI NSC (no news?) and WAG. - 160$ on 100 shares.

BNI I agree, I hate thoses. I would have been stoped out with the 50 cents pop.
NSC, I did not get my price but I would have make a profit, or at least a small lost.
WAG;
Briefing.com (Thu 8:02am) InPlay: Walgreen reports that March sales increased 6.8% y/y; Sales in comparable stores rose 1.5%
at MarketWatch (Thu 8:31am) Walgreen March same-store sales rise 1.5%.
AP (Thu 9:19am) Walgreen March same-store sales up 1.5 percent.

Just on though; BNI and NSC are not stocks that you start trading the OPG with IMO. Start in the GE, PFE, BAC range. You are less likely to see those f top 50 cents gaps.

total_keops · Apr 2, 2009

Quote from NYC212:

same boat as you. cannot figure out happened.

the gaps are too much. I would have been crushed if I did openings today

January and february where a bit dry for me. March was a little better. Obviously what we had in october and november is not the standard. Both extremes IMO. It's a known fact that profitability come and goes.
Like right now, there just is not as much liquidity coming in the market so it's no surprise to me that the OPG is not working. Many hedge funds closed, many have less capital, mutual funds have much less AUM and no money coming in... It's all about the context. And where not even talking about the 50 traders Bright is training every 2-3 months or so.
Also, if you do it simply just calculating FV, read the news 5 minutes and sending orders blindly I have no clue what happens then but it could be a cause of non profitability. The we try to keep it simple idea may or may not be a good advice.

total_keops · Apr 2, 2009

Quote from NYC212:

same boat as you. cannot figure out happened.
the gaps are too much. I would have been crushed if I did openings today

We had some really shaky days lately, not what I'm used to. And they are bad.

Carlos11 · Apr 3, 2009

Quote from NYC212:

same boat as you. cannot figure out happened.

the gaps are too much. I would have been crushed if I did openings today

I actually threw a few levels out on the short side this morning because of the SPU's. Probably a good thing i didn't get filled.

I think the biggest factor is there are simply not enough extreme gaps off the open anymore. I don't know how many times i see my stocks gap up or down .05 - .10. Enveloping my orders .10 away from the previous close is not a strategy imo, it's gambling. You've lost any 'edge' you have. Going back to my earlier point, these narrow spreads simply are not worth risking my acc't.

Also, fwiw, i didn't find Nov and Dec that great either.

Carlos11 · Apr 3, 2009

Quote from total_keops:

Also, if you do it simply just calculating FV, read the news 5 minutes and sending orders blindly I have no clue what happens then but it could be a cause of non profitability. The we try to keep it simple idea may or may not be a good advice.

I was pretty diligent with my morning routine - making sure i checked for news and other events that might affect my p&l. I would attribute my recent decline if you will to a lack of fills. They are real hard to come by these days. I've changed my envelopes, but as mentioned, i refuse to throw them out .1 from last for the sake of getting filled - from what i've seen, that's what you need to do. From that point it's a crap shoot.

total_keops · Apr 3, 2009

Quote from Carlos11:

...Enveloping my orders .10 away from the previous close is not a strategy imo, it's gambling.

I dont have a fix 10 cents envelope. It's a % around 0.5%-1%. More like 20-40 cents on a 40$ stock.

total_keops · Apr 3, 2009

4 fills, 4 shorts, 2 winners, 2 losers, -0.04 average.
Kind of my fault. Chased a 25 cents profit all the way down to 1 cent. Got shaken out on stops on 2.
Played larger this morning, especially on buys.

Mikecon · Apr 3, 2009

Quote from total_keops:

BNI I agree, I hate thoses. I would have been stoped out with the 50 cents pop.
NSC, I did not get my price but I would have make a profit, or at least a small lost.
WAG;
Briefing.com (Thu 8:02am) InPlay: Walgreen reports that March sales increased 6.8% y/y; Sales in comparable stores rose 1.5%
at MarketWatch (Thu 8:31am) Walgreen March same-store sales rise 1.5%.
AP (Thu 9:19am) Walgreen March same-store sales up 1.5 percent.

Just on though; BNI and NSC are not stocks that you start trading the OPG with IMO. Start in the GE, PFE, BAC range. You are less likely to see those f top 50 cents gaps.

I think BNI and NSC where up becasue oil was up 7% so maybe people would use trains more? Only thing I can come up with. But i noticed a lot of stockes moved higher yesterday way above s&p 500 levels.

As for WAG news why wasn't that on briefing earnings and marketwatch earnings? Is this something diffrent that earnings?

Thanks for help