Opening Orders - 2008

Quote from total_keops:

My win ratio is around 75-85%. Let's take 75%.
Expectation = sum(probabilities*value)
Expectation = (37.5% * 0.25$ + 37.5% * 0.06 + 25% * -0.25$)
Expectation = 0.054$ on average.
So, yes you have positive expectation. But you have to play with the numbers because you wont have 25 cents on all your winners and you may not want to loose 25 cents on all losers, can be more or less.
Also, you can get price improvement on your 0.06 take profits and that can help you.
Every once in a while you can get a big loser. You have to work on catching them before by reading the news or tape reading. Sometimes there is nothing you can do.
But if on average you lose 25 cents on your losers, then the minimum average you need on your winners to be flat is about 8 cents per share.
So, I think you are on the right track. Just analyse the losers and try to understand what went wrong and what you can do about it, if you can. You wont be able to cut all losers, they are part of the cost of trading.

Good luck
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This has been extremely helpful to me. Thanks a lot!!!!
 
Quote from Don Bright:
4 fills, quite a ride on MRK and DIS....break even day, glad to see that...out by 9:38
Don
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"Soleil analyst downgrades Walt Disney Co. to 'Hold' and slashes price target nearly in half "

One more time, lol.
 
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