Opening Only's 2010

[Lear]

Quote from swiftmike99:

DE and KO were influenced by that wholesale or export number yesterday at 8:30.

as far as eminis you can use SPY. to get it into laser you will need extra entilment for CME mini. cost 60$ i think.

Thanks, Mike. Got very wrong idea about OPG, calculated in wrong way and lost 377 today......

I used SPY, but IMO SPY left the factor of fair value, I mean if I use Emini's, calculate as Emini's-(SP500 closing point + FV). Though slightly difference, any reply is appreciated, thanks in advance.

 

[march21st]

Fair Value changed dramatically in the last few days [Thursday].
Emini symbol changed also.

I used -4.82 on Friday

marc

 

[Booker007]

Had FV at -0.126% and was 4:1 Long. Might be time to update my bands again. Had a bunch of losers in a row.....

 

[jones247]

Has anyone done a historical comparison of the FV envelope method vs. fade the opening print of a gap that's not news related?

thanks,

Walt

 

[jones247]

Another quick question about Open Orders... If your envelope limit orders will be filled at the opening print, as long as the opening print is a better price than your limit order, then it really shouldn't matter how accurately you calculated the stock's FV and placed your envelopes. The only issue is whether or not the "push through" to a better price than the limit order will continue or reverse shortly after the open.

Am I right about this, or am I missing something...?

 

[total_keops]

Quote from jones247:

Another quick question about Open Orders... If your envelope limit orders will be filled at the opening print, as long as the opening print is a better price than your limit order, then it really shouldn't matter how accurately you calculated the stock's FV and placed your envelopes. The only issue is whether or not the "push through" to a better price than the limit order will continue or reverse shortly after the open.

Am I right about this, or am I missing something...?

If you place an order with a FV that give you no statistical hedge over the long term then you should lose. You are missing the fact that you get an hedge when you get a fill at a good price, that is away from the stock FV. All things being equal (no news, bla bla bla). And it is caused by this magic formula offer != demand ==> ???

 

[Booker007]

FV=+0.256% and was about even L/S but had just more garbage. PKX was my worse one.

 

[Don Bright]

3 fills, WMT good. + 19

Don

 

[Don Bright]

Quote from jones247:

Another quick question about Open Orders... If your envelope limit orders will be filled at the opening print, as long as the opening print is a better price than your limit order, then it really shouldn't matter how accurately you calculated the stock's FV and placed your envelopes. The only issue is whether or not the "push through" to a better price than the limit order will continue or reverse shortly after the open.

Am I right about this, or am I missing something...?

You're right...if you offer stock at 30.34 and it opens at 30.85, you're filled at 30.85. Some "old timers" just place orders one penny above and one penny below the previous day's closing price...and still make money, LOL.

Don

 

[Booker007]

FV=+0.239 which got me 4:1 short which was the problem. I was up about 200 bucks initially and should of blown out of it since I had a really good feeling about going long the SPYs.... Oh well at least my spoos hedge got me slightly positive overall......