opening gaps not filled anymore

[heilbronner]

This would be the third day in a row that the opening gap wouldn't be filled in NQ.

 

[daveb351]

Might have something to do with 24 hr. trading in futures...?

 

[heilbronner]

I take the open of NDX as a reference.

 

[Brandonf]

Quote from heilbronner:

This would be the third day in a row that the opening gap wouldn't be filled in NQ.

and?

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from heilbronner:

This would be the third day in a row that the opening gap wouldn't be filled in NQ.

The probabilities certainly aren't what they used to be. Perhaps a result of range contraction.

 

[balda]

today is a very good chance 80%

 

[heilbronner]

80% that it is filled or not filled???ß

 

[heilbronner]

OK, market just gave the answer. Do you have a study about this stuff? How do you calculate that 80%?

 

[balda]

I use 70% of yesterday's volume,
If market opens inside that range GAPs are filled with 80% chance and if market opens outside the range NO edge 50/50 chance.
I did my own study based on 9 months of data and on low volume days unusual things happen more often (for instance last December) was very difficult to play gaps.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

Quote from balda:

I use 70% of yesterday's volume,
If market opens inside that range GAPs are filled with 80% chance and if market opens outside the range NO edge 50/50 chance.
I did my own study based on 9 months of data and on low volume days unusual things happen more often (for instance last December) was very difficult to play gaps.

When you say 70% of yesterday's volume, does that mean the price range that encompassed 70% of volume? Is this a Market Profile concept?